Tropical Storm Dorian weakened a little as it passed over the Lesser Antilles, dumping heavy rains, bringing down trees and knocking out power in Barbados. By Tuesday, Dorian's maximum sustained winds were 50 mph as it tracked west-northwest at 13 mph about 330 miles from Ponce, which is situated on Puerto Rico's southern coast.
Forecasters predict Dorian's path will take it near the eastern coast of the Dominican Republic and the western coast of Puerto Rico during the middle of this week before traveling northwestward through the Bahamas with an eventual strike on the Florida Peninsula Saturday night. As a result, the National Hurricane Center has issued a number of watches and warnings. Both Puerto Rico and parts of the Dominican Republic were under a hurricane watch as of Tuesday, and a tropical storm warning was put into effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands.
All interests in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Bahamas, and Florida should continue to closely monitor the progression of Dorian, which has already delivered strong winds and heavy rain to the islands of Martinique, Barbados and St. Lucia.
At the very least, a swath of building seas, rough surf, heavy rain and gusty winds will spread northwestward along the path of the tropical cyclone.
Fluctuation in strength is likely with Dorian's intensity ranging from a moderate tropical storm to perhaps a strong tropical storm.
A large high pressure area to the north of the Caribbean is currently steering Dorian on a west-northwest course.
As Dorian reaches the western periphery of the high and a weakness in the steering flow caused by Tropical Depression Six, it will turn more toward the northwest, but probably only for a two- to four-day stretch.
Dorian is seen entering the eastern Caribbean Sea early Tuesday, Aug. 27, 2019. (Photo/NOAA GOES East)
Dorian's forecast impact in the northern Caribbean
Impacts from Dorian on Puerto Rico will be dramatically less than the magnitude the island felt from Major Hurricane Maria in 2017.
Still, officials in Puerto Rico are not taking the storm lightly. Gov. Wanda Vázquez Garced said on Twitter on Monday that she issued a state of emergency declaration for the island. About 360 shelters, which hold a capacity of 48,500 people, have been opened while 24,000 cots were distributed.
And residents aren't taking Dorian lightly either. Supermarket shelves in Cabo Rojo emptied out on Monday from residents there stocking up on water, food and generators, according to Reuters, as people braced for the storm's arrival.
Rainfall of 4-8 inches and wind gusts of 60-80 mph are forecast over the Dominican Republic and western Puerto Rico. Locally higher amounts of rain can occur over the mountains.
The combination of steep terrain and heavy rainfall will lead to incidents of flash flooding and mudslides, regardless of prior drought conditions over the Dominican Republic and western Puerto Rico. Locally gusty winds can trigger sporadic power outages.
On AccuWeather's RealImpact™ Scale, Dorian is forecast to be a 1 on its travels through the Caribbean, the Bahamas and eventually Florida.
In comparison to the Saffir-Simpson scale, which has been used by meteorologists for decades and classifies storms by wind speed only, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for hurricanes is based on a broad range of important factors. The scale covers not only wind speed, but flooding rain, storm surge and economic damage and loss.
"At present, Dorian is a small tropical cyclone, which will spare large areas from feeling its worst impacts, according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Reneé Duff.
However, small storms can fluctuate in strength and potentially grow in size over the course of their lifespan. Dorian will be monitored closely for changes in strength.
"The chance that Dorian could become a hurricane before passing over or near Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic decreased on Tuesday," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski. "It could still still be near hurricane strength for landfall in Puerto Rico late Wednesday," he cautioned.
Dorian will weaken as it passes over either of the mountainous islands. In fact, some weakening would still occur if the storm manages to slip between the Mona Passage. This is the channel of water between Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
Dorian's forecast impact on the Bahamas
The degree of land interaction between Dorian and the higher terrain of Hispaniola will determine how quickly the tropical cyclone can recover as it pulls away to the northwest.
"At this time, AccuWeather meteorologists are forecasting Dorian to re-intensify Friday and Saturday as it moves northwestward along the Bahamas island chain," Kottlowski said.
"It's highly possible Dorian could become a hurricane as it moves through the Bahamas," he added.
Interests in the Bahamas should prepare for conditions of a strengthening tropical storm to hurricane. A swath of heavy rain, locally damaging winds and battering surf is in store, but the worst conditions are likely to be over a relatively narrow path with some islands having significant impact and others with barely a breeze and a little rain.
Dorian's forecast impact on the US
The next land area in the Dorian's path will be the United States, and more specifically Florida.
Dorian is expected to move inland over the eastern part of the Florida Peninsula sometime Saturday night or early Sunday morning, depending on how far north the tropical cyclone wanders beforehand.
By the time Dorian reaches Florida, the overall size of the storm may be somewhat larger and its impact farther-reaching, when compared to the compact system in the Caribbean. The feature will pass over very warm waters of the Gulf Stream between Florida and the Bahamas.
"There is a chance that Dorian makes landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in Florida," Kottlowski said.
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At this point, there is the likelihood of stormy conditions with heavy rain and gusty winds that push northwestward across part of the Florida Peninsula beginning Saturday night and continuing into Sunday night. Flooding downpours and power outages are possible.
Should Dorian remain over land for the duration after reaching Florida, the system will slowly weaken and rain itself out over the southeastern corner of the U.S. during Labor Day and beyond.
However, if Dorian manages to turn more to the west and reach the Gulf of Mexico, another period of strengthening is likely, which could bring the tropical cyclone back up to hurricane status next week.
In this case, the overall impacts of the storm on U.S. interests surrounding the Gulf of Mexico will be re-evaluated.
Dorian's impact on the Windward Islands
"Impacts from Dorian over the Windward Islands has been in the form of strong gusty winds and occasional heavy rainfall, mostly impacting the islands of Martinique, Barbados and St. Lucia," Kottlowski said.
Rainfall amounts of over 2 inches have occurred over Martinique thus far and a peak wind gust of 55 mph was reported from the Barbados airport during Monday night.
The Windward Islands can expect tropical storm conditions to continue into Tuesday evening, including winds gusting up to 40-60 mph and additional heavy rainfall at times. Conditions around these islands should have substantially improved by Wednesday.
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