The threat for severe thunderstorms packed with the potential for hail, damaging winds and flooding downpours will continue across parts of the central United States through Tuesday.
A southward- and eastward-moving cold front across the region will be the main trigger for additional severe thunderstorm development.
"This is an unusually strong cold front for this time of the year, which will allow the ability for severe thunderstorms to develop ahead of it that much more likely," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Matt Rinde said.
Monday will start with rain and embedded thunderstorms from parts of Iowa and Minnesota, eastward through the Ohio Valley and upper Great Lakes. This includes the major cities of Minneapolis and Chicago.
While there is no threat for severe weather in these areas on Monday, enough rain can fall to cause ponding of water on streets and areas of poor drainage.
By Monday afternoon and evening, thunderstorms will erupt deeper to the south from eastern Iowa and western Illinois to Oklahoma. It is within this zone that severe weather can occur.
Damaging winds will be the primary threats with these storms. As storms initially develop, a few instances of hail is possible. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as well.
Flash flooding will occur on a more localized level. Cities within the risk area include Davenport, Iowa; Peoria and Quincy, Illinois; Kansas City, Columbia and St. Louis, Missouri; Independence, Kansas; Oklahoma City and Tulsa, Oklahoma; and Fayetteville, Arkansas.
"The strongest thunderstorms are expected to miss the major cities of Chicago and Little Rock, Arkansas," Rinde said.
Regardless, any thunderstorms passing across these areas Monday night could contain gusty winds and a brief heavy downpour.
Those traveling along interstates 35, 40, 44, 70 and 80 will want to be on alert for rapidly changing weather conditions. Drivers should reduce speed in a heavy downpour to reduce the risk of hydroplaning.
"Thunderstorm complexes can be especially dangerous at night as the ability to see flash flooding or ponding of water on roadways is reduced to only a small distance in front of you," AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said.
While most of these thunderstorms will weaken below severe limits by Tuesday morning, thunderstorms across Oklahoma and Arkansas can still contain strong to locally damaging winds and heavy rainfall when approaching the Red River Valley.
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"By Tuesday morning, the heaviest thunderstorms will be centered around the Oklahoma/Texas border, with drenching rainfall and gusty winds the main threats, Rinde said.
Upon the dissipation of that complex later Tuesday morning, the cold front will stall over the region, opening the door for additional severe weather to redevelop later Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Flooding downpours will be the primary threats with the storms across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. However, hail and locally damaging winds can occur in the strongest storms.
Drier and less humid weather will build across much of the North Central states on Tuesday. The exception will be across parts of North Dakota, Minnesota and Wisconsin, where a few showers and thunderstorms can develop. Some of these can contain small hail.
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