Will tropical development occur in the Atlantic Ocean this week?

By Kristina Pydynowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring the southwestern Atlantic Ocean for potential gradual tropical development later this week.

The Atlantic basin has been quiet since Barry slammed onto the Louisiana coast as a hurricane on Saturday, July 13.

A concentrated batch of downpours and thunderstorms churning near the central Bahamas may attempt to brew into a more organized tropical system offshore of the southeastern United States in the coming days.

The tropical feature being monitored by AccuWeather meteorologists was churning near the eastern Bahamas on Monday, July 22, 2019. (RAMMB)

This feature will continue to track northwestward through the Bahamas before turning to the north and then northeast near Florida's southeastern coast through Tuesday.

"There is just a minimal chance that this develops into a tropical depression before turning to the northeast and becoming incorporated with a stalling cold front along the southeastern coast of the U.S. during the middle of the week," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.

Regardless, residents and visitors across the central and northwestern Bahamas will notice an increase in showers and thunderstorms on Monday.

The downpours can graze Miami and West Palm Beach on Monday night into early Tuesday, but more of the Southeast will turn stormy on Tuesday as the cold front sinks southward.

The front will make significant southward progress for July, sweeping cooler and less humid air across the Interstate-85 corridor and down to around I-10 in the lower Mississippi Valley.

However, some of the thunderstorms may turn severe across the Carolinas on Tuesday.

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"As the front sits along the Southeast coast and over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, it remains possible that a tropical or subtropical system could develop later this week or over the weekend," Douty said. "This remains just a small possibility but is something to watch in the coming days."

A subtropical storm has both tropical and non-tropical characteristics.

"Subtropical storms tend to be somewhat lopsided and may contain pockets of dry air near the center," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski. "However, in terms of impact, they can also bring heavy rainfall, rough sea and surf conditions and strong winds, just like their true tropical storm cousin."

"Tropical development along a stalled frontal boundary is typically a slow process, so there remains the question as to whether the feature will have enough time to develop before it is pulled northeastward away from the coast and into cooler water," Douty stated.

Even if a tropical depression or named storm fails to take shape, the front will bring an extended stretch of increased showers and thunderstorms to the Florida Peninsula later this week.

The showers and thunderstorms may also graze and disrupt beachgoers along the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas during this time.

Latest indications suggest that, in the event of a more organized tropical system taking shape later in the week, it would remain offshore. There can still be enhanced rainfall along a part of the Southeast coast, and rough seas would be stirred across the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Away from the southwestern Atlantic, there are no other signs of development across the remainder of the basin this week.

With the heart of hurricane season still to come in mid-August and September, all residents living in hurricane-prone areas are urged to review what precautions need to be taken should a storm threaten.

The next named storm in the Atlantic will be called Chantal.

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