By Eric Leister, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
A monsoon low will spread heavy downpours across northern India this week; however, the National Capital Region (NCR) and surrounding parts of northwest India may have to wait several more weeks for persistent rainfall to arrive.
While northwest India anxiously awaits the much-needed rainfall, flooding will be a major concern for areas from Odisha to Madhya Pradesh and eastern Maharashtra as a monsoon low brings the heaviest rainfall of the monsoon season to many locations.
The monsoon low will track west-northwestward across north-central India through Thursday, bringing a wide swath of torrential rainfall each day.
Locations that will be at greatest risk for flooding include Bhilai, Raipur, Nagpur, Chhindwara and Jabalpur.
Rainfall amounts of 125-250 mm (5-10 inches) will be common through Thursday, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 500 mm (20 inches).
This monsoon low may stall over north-central India from Friday into the weekend or reverse course and track back eastward toward Odisha and West Bengal.
Additional flooding is expected during this time; however, the location of this flooding will be dependent on the long-term track of this storm system.
Downpours will also bring the risk for flooding to western Maharashtra, including Mumbai, this week.
People wade through a waterlogged street during monsoon rains in Mumbai, India, Monday, July 1, 2019. India's monsoon season runs from June to September. (AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool)
Despite a delayed start to the monsoon, heavy rainfall in recent days has already erased the seasonal deficit.
Rainfall from Friday into Tuesday totaled around more than 800 mm (32 inches) in Mumbai, causing flooding and significant travel disruptions across the city.
The heavy rainfall also caused three fatal wall collapses within Maharashtra since Monday. The death toll from these events reached at least 35 as of Tuesday with more than 60 others injured, according to the Times of India.
Rescuers and others gather at the spot after heavy rainfall caused a wall to collapse onto shanties, in Mumbai, India, Tuesday, July 2, 2019. More than a dozen people were killed even as forecasters warned of more rains. (AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool)
On Saturday, another wall collapse in Pune killed 16 people living in tin-roofed huts following heavy rainfall.
A public holiday was declared for Tuesday in Maharashtra and the government stated that only emergency services would be in operation.
The early week downpours resulted in delays to the commuter train network, flooded roadways and numerous flight delays, according to Reuters.
Elsewhere, locations from the NCR westward to Pakistan will see only very localized rainfall this week as the monsoon stalls farther to the east.
Rainfall across the entire region was 34 percent less than normal during the month of June, with parts of the NCR and western Uttar Pradesh more than 60 percent below normal.
A young Indian girl covers her face to protect from the heat as she walks on the dried bed of the River Tawi on a hot summer day in Jammu, India, Thursday, April 20, 2017. (AP Photo/Channi Anand)
Localized thunderstorms will pop up across northwest India from Thursday into Sunday; however, most locations will remain dry during this period.
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The extreme heat that engulfed the region in recent days will hold through the middle of the week with minor relief expected as cloud cover and localized thunderstorms arrive later in the week.
Daily highs of 40-42 C (104-108 F) are expected into at least Thursday with the hottest locations seeing temperatures rise above 43 C (110 F) each day.
If the monsoon low tracks eastward later this week into early next week, it will pull monsoon moisture eastward with it, leaving northwest India without any persistent rainfall.
In this scenario, the monsoon rainfall may not reach areas from the NCR westward until the middle of July at the earliest. This would be almost a month behind schedule for the region.
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