By Kristina Pydynowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
While the long-awaited start to the monsoon has finally come to the National Capital Region (NCR), the greatest risk of flooding will focus on north-central and northeastern India into next week.
On the heels of the worst inundation of monsoon rain that Mumbai has endured in more than a decade, a pair of monsoon lows will combine to produce multiple days of widespread downpours across north-central and northeastern India.
This includes across Madhya Pradesh to Bihar and into northeastern India this weekend. A separate area of frequent downpours will soak northern Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha through the first half of the weekend.
As downpours continue to stream over Bangladesh, northeastern India and neighboring parts of Myanmar early next week, heavy rain will also focus on Madhya Pradesh (especially eastern areas), Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
Rainfall totals of 100-200 mm (4-8 inches) with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 500 mm (20 inches) will be common across north-central and northeastern India through early next week.
While the downpours will help reduce the rainfall deficit brought on by the delayed start to the monsoon, residents will have to remain vigilant for the dangers too much rain in a short amount of time brings.
Persistent downpours can lead to life-threatening flash flooding, along with risks of electrocution. Wall collapses can also endanger residents in the hardest-hit areas.
Flooded roads and railways can disrupt motorists and train networks. Airline passengers may also face delays.
Downpours will also continue to stream onto the western coast of India, including Mumbai, into next week. Additional significant rain will aggravate flooding problems and trigger new mudslides.
Officials told CNN that the inundation of monsoon rain earlier this week is the worst Mumbai has endured in more than a decade.
The heavy rainfall has caused deadly flooding and multiple wall collapses within Maharashtra since Monday. There are varying reports to the number of killed.
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CNN reported that the death toll reached at least 43 as of Wednesday. The Associated Press reports at least 34 people were killed since Monday night, including 15 after a dam burst on Tuesday in Ratnagiri inundating homes.
Even in the absence of flooding and across all of India where the monsoon has commenced, anyone spending time outdoors should seek shelter as soon as thunder is heard. The risk of being struck by lightning is then present.
A boy plays as a street vendor attends to a customer in a waterlogged street following heavy rains in Mumbai, India, on Tuesday, July 2, 2019. (AP Photo/Rajanish Kakade)
The NCR was one of the most recent places where the monsoon has finally commenced. The India Meteorological Department declared the onset of the monsoon in the NCR on Friday, July 5. A start date by the end of June is more common.
On the first day of the monsoon in the NCR, 25 mm (an inch) of rain fell at the Safdarjung Airport.
After additional showers and thunderstorms bring more welcome rain this weekend, residents may be disappointed by rainfall totals next week.
"There can continue to be showers and thunderstorms around next week, but rainfall may average below normal until more substantial rain arrives later in the month," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls, who accurately predicted when the monsoon would reach the NCR back in mid-June.
Northwestern Rajasthan may have to wait even longer for the rainy season to commence.
"While there can be light rain late July in northwestern Rajasthan, more significant rain may stay absent until early August," Nicholls said.
Hot and dry weather will instead hold across northwestern Rajasthan, with AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures soaring to around 43 C (110 F) in the hottest locations daily into next week.
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