Warm Eastern Pacific waters to increase chances for more tropical systems this week

By Courtney Spamer, AccuWeather meteorologist

In the wake of Alvin, additional tropical systems are expected to develop over the warm waters of the Eastern Pacific Ocean this week.

The tropical season in the Eastern Pacific Ocean officially began on May 15, but the first named system in the basin, Alvin, formed more than month later.

For a period of about six hours on Thursday night, Alvin's winds intensified and it was classified as a hurricane. Early Friday morning, Alvin was back to tropical storm strength. Cool water further weakened Alvin below tropical depression status on Saturday morning.

Despite the slow start to the season, AccuWeather meteorologists expect between 20 and 22 named storms, with 10 to 12 forecast to become hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific.

"Alvin had just enough of the right conditions Thursday to allow the storm to strengthen briefly from a tropical storm to a hurricane," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Matt Rinde.

These conditions, including warm waters, a moist atmosphere and weak wind shear, are all expected to remain off the southern coast of Mexico through this week, keeping the window open for more tropical development.

Tropical development often starts off with tropical waves.

A tropical wave is a tropical disturbance moving from east to west across an ocean basin that could develop into a tropical cyclone should it enter a conducive atmospheric environment.

While no organized tropical development has followed behind Alvin just yet, several tropical waves are expected to move through the area of favorable development south of Mexico, meaning they could strengthen rather quickly.

One tropical wave will move westward across the East Pacific during the next couple of days.

Should the environment remain favorable, this wave could become the next tropical depression or storm and could form by early this week, according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.

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Meanwhile, another disturbance following on its heels is also being monitored for strengthening in early July.

"It is possible that two new tropical storms may be spinning over the Eastern Pacific at the same time this week and at least one of those could be a substantial hurricane," according to AccuWeather SeniorMeteorologist Alex Sosnowski.

The next two names on the list of storms for the Eastern Pacific are Barbara and Cosme.

Several tropical waves have also been moving across the Atlantic basin over the past few days.

Despite the warm water, these waves are battling strong wind shear and dry Saharan dust, making it quite difficult for a more organized tropical system to form.

These conditions are expected to remain across the Atlantic, keeping it quiet across the basin into the first part of July.

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