Tropical Cyclone Wallace may target northwestern corner of Australia during middle of next week

By Kristina Pydynowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Tropical Cyclone Wallace may raise the risk for heavy rain and rough seas across the northwestern corner of Australia next week, depending on its exact track.

Less than two weeks after Severe Tropical Cyclone Veronicaunloaded flooding rain along the Pilbara coast of Western Australia, a new cyclone has taken shape north of Western Australia.

"Wallace may track close enough to shore that the outer bands of the storm can produce rain, some heavy, and rough seas along the Kimberley coast of Western Australia this weekend," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.

Locally flooding downpours will also continue to stream into the Top End during this time.

Wallace will continue to strengthen through the weekend, potentially becoming a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone with strength equal to a Category 1 hurricane in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific oceans by Monday.

Seas will build over the waters north of Western Australia as the cyclone intensifies, creating dangers for those with shipping interests in the region.

Beyond the weekend, scenarios for Wallace range from a direct hit to a near miss in far northwestern Australia.

Latest indications are that chances for a landfall and significant impacts along the Pilbara coast where Veronica triggered significant flooding are less likely than previous concerns.

"The main question is how close will the cyclone be to clipping the coast in the vicinity of Exmouth as we head into the middle of the upcoming week," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Houk.

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"Overall, we are leaning toward a track far enough to the west and with a less intense storm such that the danger from wind damage and flooding rain over land should be much less than what we saw from Veronica," he added.

Wallace should be past its peak intensity when it makes its closest approach to Western Australia.

While the dangers may not be as severe as during Veronica, residents from Onslow and Exmouth to Minilya and Carnarvon are still being put on alert for potential areas of flash flooding around the middle of next week.

Strong coastal winds and pounding seas may also buffet the coast in this scenario. Entering the water may become too dangerous for swimmers and boaters while coastal flooding may occur near and east of where the cyclone targets the coast.

The other scenario being monitored by AccuWeather meteorologists is that the cyclone never makes landfall and the worst of its rain and wind stays offshore.

Rough seas would still be stirred along the Pilbara coast from east to west through the first half of the upcoming week. If Wallace tracks close enough, downpours may also graze coastal communities.

Moisture from Wallace can then get drawn onto the Gascoyne coast later in the week, triggering downpours and localized flash flooding.

Download the free AccuWeather app to remain aware of the latest track for the budding cyclone and any impacts on your community.

All residents are urged to review what preparations would need to be taken should the cyclone threaten.

On the heels of Wallace, the waters north of Western Australia will continue to be monitored for another system to follow.

"Conditions may not be as conducive for development in the wake of Wallace, so any storm likely remains weak," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls. "However, there is still a small concern that any low could strengthen into a weak cyclone."

Such development could occur late in the upcoming week or the following weekend.