The track and strength of a storm along the Atlantic coast will determine the extent of adverse weather effects from parts of the South to the Northeast next week.
Indications are that a storm will develop near the Gulf coast on Monday and strengthen upon reaching the Atlantic coast during Tuesday night and Wednesday.
The track of the storm will determine whether rain and gusty winds back in from the ocean along the Interstate-95 corridor of the mid-Atlantic or if dry air holds on in this same swath.
The forecast from Washington, D.C., to Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City and Boston will be contingent on the track of the storm during the middle and latter part of next week.
A northward track that hugs the coast could mean that nor'easter conditions may develop in the mid-Atlantic with gusty winds, heavy rain and even a remote chance of wet snow well away from the coast.
Meanwhile, a more eastward track out to sea would mean little or no rain and perhaps a continuation of string of sunny days from Monday through Thursday.
"At the very least, the storm will bring drenching rain and the risk of localized flooding in parts of the South from Monday to Tuesday," according to AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok.
New Orleans; Mobile, Alabama; Tallahassee, Florida; Savannah, Georgia; Charleston, South Carolina; and Wilmington, North Carolina; may be in the path of the heaviest rain from the storm.
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However, even areas farther to the north such as Montgomery, Alabama; Atlanta; Columbia, South Carolina; and Charlotte and Raleigh, North Carolina; are likely to receive a period of drenching rain as well.
"Another sure bet, regardless of the exact track, will be rough surf, heavy seas, above-normal tides and beach erosion," Pastelok said.
A man watches the surf as heavy seas continue to come ashore in Wintrhrop, Mass., Saturday, March 3, 2018, a day after a nor'easter pounded the Atlantic coast. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)
"How rough these conditions get will depend on the storm track," he added.
If the storm was to hug the coast and stall, which is not unheard of for early April, coastal flooding concerns could be made worse by the new moon later in the week.
This time of the year, it is not uncommon for a piece of the jet streamto break off from the main branch and become a closed circulation. When this happens, a storm beneath this 'close-off' can stall and strengthen.
Tides are typically at their highest within a couple of days of the full and new moon.
Those with flexible plans and attending the National Cherry Blossom Festival in Washington, D.C., next week, taking in the outdoor views on Monday and Tuesday might be a better option than Wednesday or Thursday, in case the storm hugs the coast and sends wind and rain northwestward.
The blossoms are forecast to be at their peak on Monday.
Download the free AccuWeather app to see the latest forecast for your area.
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