Tropical storm likely to form near Madagascar by end of the weekend

By Courtney Spamer, AccuWeather meteorologist

A tropical low moving off the coast of Mozambique will likely develop and bring flooding rain and gusty winds to Madagascar and the southeastern Africa coast.

As the low drifts off the coast of Africa, it will emerge into the warm water of the Mozambique Channel, the water between southeastern Africa and Madagascar.

The warm water, in combination with lower wind shear over the region, will produce ideal conditions for tropical development.

"While there is some uncertainty on how quickly this low will strengthen, there is a high probability that the low becomes a tropical depression and perhaps even a tropical storm," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.

Should the low reach moderate tropical storm strength, wind gusts of 63 km/h (39 mph) would be possible near the center of the storm. Most of these gusts would be over open water; however, there could be gusty winds along the coast.

Should these be onshore winds for any location, coastal flooding could also be a concern.

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The low pressure is expected to initially pull away from the southeastern coast of Africa and move towards the western shores of Madagascar but is expected to curve southwestward early next week.

With the extended exposure over the warm water, there is a small potential that the system could strengthen into a tropical cyclone, with wind gusts of 119 km/h (74 mph).

Regardless of how strong this tropical low becomes, flooding rain will be a concern for the locations surrounding the Mozambique Channel, including Mozambique and much of Madagascar.

Tropical activity continues elsewhere in the Indian Ocean, including northwest of Australia.

Check the AccuWeather tropical page for the latest details on tropical systems around the globe.

The above image shows an infrared satellite snapshot of the low off the coast of Mozambique, (also known as 98s) on Friday (Photo/NOAA).