By Kristina Pydynowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
By Eric Leister, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Dangerous Cyclone Idai is forecast to strengthen in the coming days and put more lives and property in peril as it tracks toward Mozambique. The cyclone is already responsible for at least 10 deaths in Mozambique, according to the United Nations.
Less than 36 hours after becoming a tropical storm over the warm waters of the Mozambique Channel, Idai strengthened into an intense tropical cyclone on Monday.
By the end of the day, the cyclone's intensity was equal to that of a Category 3 hurricane in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific oceans. The cyclone weakened some on Tuesday; however, another round of strengthening is expected in the coming days as it approaches Madagascar.
Satellite image showing Cyclone Idai over the Mozambique Channel on Tuesday, March 12.
Idai is expected to reach intense tropical cyclone status for a second time as it restrengthens. At its peak intensity, Idai's strength may be equal to a Category 4 hurricane.
Some additional rain and gusty winds are expected along and near Madagascar's west-central coast into Tuesday night, with more localized downpours targeting other parts of northern Madagascar.
The risk for strong winds, downpours and rough seas will diminish across western Madagascar by Wednesday as Idai tracks away from the island.
While conditions improve across Madagascar, seas will become too dangerous for vessels and small craft across the southern Mozambique Channel as this week progresses and Idai takes aim at central Mozambique.
"Idai is now expected to strike central Mozambique on Thursday night or Friday," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.
Nicholls anticipates that Idai may weaken some prior to landfall, but residents definitely should not let their guards down. "Idai may still be an intense tropical cyclone at landfall," he said.
Rain and wind may start to increase along the coast of central Mozambique late Wednesday night or Thursday before the worst of the storm rages around Friday.
Idai can slam onshore with destructive winds and flooding rain in the vicinity of Beira. Life-threatening storm-surge flooding can put coastal communities underwater near and south of where Idai makes landfall.
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The most dire situation for Beira would unfold if Idai makes landfall just to the north of the city, resulting in the highest amount of water piling up around the mouth of the Pungwe River. Storm-surge flooding may also spread farther up the river, inundating homes and businesses.
Residents in Beira, as well as Chiloane, Nova Sofala and Chinde, are urged to closely monitor the track of Idai and make the necessary storm preparations.
The winds can cause devastating damage, including to well-built framed homes, in the vicinity of landfall. Electricity and water may be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm.
Those living near the coast should be ready to evacuate and heed all warnings issued by officials.
As Idai tracks inland, flooding downpours will spread throughout the interior of central Mozambique and into eastern Zimbabwe from Friday into this weekend.
Locations across central Mozambique and eastern Zimbabwe can expected 100-200 mm (4-8 inches) of rainfall through Sunday with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 400 mm (16 inches).
A few downpours may extend as far north and west as Harare, Zimbabewe on Saturday and Sunday.
If Idai moves onshore as anticipated, land interaction should cause the cyclone to rapidly weaken. Regardless, damaging winds may still spread across more of inland central Mozambique this weekend. Locally damaging winds will be possible in far eastern Zimbabwe.
While AccuWeather meteorologists are warning of a devastating landfall, there is one scenario where the center of Idai may stop short of reaching the coastline. However, destructive winds can still affect the coast and storm-surge flooding may still occur if this solution pans out. Inland locations would be spared the worst of Idai's impacts in this scenario.
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The demise of Idai, however, may not come this weekend.
"In the longer term, latest indications are now that Idai may turn back to the east and reenter the Mozambique Channel early next week," said Nicholls. "Idai can go on to impact southern Madagascar around the middle of next week."
Even in this scenario, Idai is likely not to be as strong as this week. That may lessen the risk of destructive winds along its future path next week, but flooding downpours can remain a concern.
Idai is expected to reach intense tropical cyclone status for a second time as it restrengthens. At its peak intensity, Idai's strength may be equal to a Category 4 hurricane.
Nicholls anticipates that Idai may weaken some prior to landfall, but residents definitely should not let their guards down. "Idai may still be an intense tropical cyclone at landfall," he said.
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The winds can cause devastating damage, including to well-built framed homes, in the vicinity of landfall. Electricity and water may be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm.
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