Australia: Tropical cyclone to form, target northern Queensland next week

By Kristina Pydynowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

A budding tropical cyclone is expected to take aim and bring dangers to the Cape York Peninsula in northern Queensland, Australia, next week.

While drenching and locally severe thunderstorms will dominate weather headlines in southeastern Queensland and northeastern New South Wales this weekend, attention will turn toward a newly formed tropical low near eastern Papua New Guinea.

"This low will drift very slowly to the south into the Coral Sea, where it may develop into a tropical cyclone later this weekend and into early next week," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.

An ultimate track into and across the Cape York Peninsula is anticipated. The speed and track of the budding cyclone will determine its intensity at landfall and the areas facing the worst impacts.

Regardless of when landfall occurs, the storm is expected to bring heavy rain and flooding to a swath of the Cape York Peninsula.

"Wind damage may also be a concern where the system ultimately moves inland," Douty added. "Current indications point toward landfall being north of Townsville, possibly near to north of Cairns."

A faster track would likely limit strengthening to a Category 1 or 2 cyclone (the equivalent of a tropical storm in the Atlantic or northern Pacific oceans). In this scenario, the storm may barrel across the northern Cape York Peninsula around Tuesday.

In another solution, the storm may slow its forward speed as it approaches the peninsula. As it continues to churn over the warm waters of the Coral Sea, it may further strengthen into a Category 3 cyclone (the equivalent of a hurricane).

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Landfall may then be delayed until later in the week, but the storm may track close enough to batter some coastal communities along the central or southern peninsula with one to two days of rain and strong winds before moving inland.

This would bring the greatest risk of flooding, wind damage and coastal inundation to the peninsula.

In either scenario, seas will build across the northern Coral Sea as the cyclone strengthens. The stronger the cyclone, the more dangerous conditions will be for boaters and swimmers.

Beyond affecting the Cape York Peninsula, the storm may then enter the Gulf of Carpentaria before targeting the Northern Territory with flooding rain and strong winds later next week or the following weekend.

Download the free AccuWeather app to remain aware of the latest track of this budding cyclone and any threats to your community.