By Eric Leister, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
On the heels of Tropical Cyclone Neil, two new tropical threats are brewing in the South Pacific Ocean.
Neil developed east of Fiji on Saturday and brought heavy rainfall to parts of Tonga through Sunday before weakening and tracking away to the south.
A pair of tropical lows will bring a continued risk for heavy rainfall and flooding to a large area from New Caledonia and Vanuatu to Fiji, Tonga and American Samoa this week.
One area of low pressure, located near Fiji, will track southwestward in the coming days, bringing a prolonged period of unsettled weather from Fiji and Tonga to American Samoa.
Development into a tropical cyclone is not expected during this time; however, gusty winds will be possible in any showers and thunderstorms as the storm impacts the region.
The greatest concern will be for flash flooding, as most locations can expect 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) of rain through Friday. However, hardest-hit areas can receive up to 300 mm (12 inches) of rainfall, with 50-75 mm (2-3 inches) falling within a 12-hour period.
Areas most at risk for this torrential rainfall include Wallis and Futuna, Tonga and northeast parts of Vanua Levu.
Satellite image of the south Pacific Ocean showing a large area of unsettled weather from Vanuatu to American Samoa on Monday, courtesy of the Japan Meteorological Agency.
Rough seas will also be a concern across the entire region as the tropical threats may stir up seas as high as 6 meters (20 feet) for offshore locations. Dangerous rip currents will also be a concern for swimmers and beachgoers.
The second tropical threat is currently spinning north of New Caledonia and west of Vanuatu and will stall over the region for several days.
The slow movement of this storm will bring daily downpours to Vanuatu with occasional downpours for New Caledonia.
The heaviest rain is currently expected to remain north of Efate, affecting the islands of Epi, Ambrym, Malekula, Pentecost, Ambae, Maewo and Espiritu Santo.
These areas can expect widespread rainfall of 100-200 mm (4-8 inches) through Friday, with local amounts over 300 mm (12 inches).
This tropical threat appears to have the higher risk for becoming a named tropical cyclone and if this occurs, damaging winds will be a concern across northern Vanuatu; a potential landfall is not out of the question by Thursday or Friday.
Rough seas and dangerous rip currents will also be a concern for Vanuatu and New Caledonia, with seas over 6 meters (20 feet) possible in northern Vanuatu.
In the longer range, this tropical threat is forecast to remain near Vanuatu and New Caledonia and may result in additional downpours and flooding issues into this weekend and early next week.
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