Southern India to face new flood danger in wake of deadly Cyclone Gaja

By Kristina Pydynowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

November 16, 2018, 1:02:09 PM EST

As cleanup efforts commence in the wake of Cyclone Gaja, another round of potentially flooding rain is aiming at southern India next week.

At least 13 people were killed after Gaja slammed onto the coast of Tamil Nadu, between Vedaranyam and Velankanni, during the early morning hours of Friday as a severe cyclonic storm.

A total of 216 huts were destroyed with nearly 1,500 others partially damaged, according to Times of India. Nearly 5,000 trees were uprooted in coastal districts as electric cables were snapped.

Roofs and some architectural work of local churches also sustained damage.

The aftermath of cyclone Gaja is seen in Tamil Nadu, India, on November 16, 2018 in this picture obtained from social media. (SHABBIR AHMED/via REUTERS)

More than 80,000 people evacuated ahead of the cyclone.

As residents return to their homes and clean up the storm damage, mostly dry weather is expected to start the weekend.

There can be an increase in widely separated showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Monday. Both days, showers dampening cleanup operations along the east coast in the late-night and morning hours can spread to inland areas for the afternoon. The highest risk for thunderstorms to rumble will be away from the coast.

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Downpours are expected to ramp up across a swath of southern India as next week progresses and a new storm arrives from the Bay of Bengal.

"Although this storm is not expected to strengthen as much as Gaja did prior to reaching India, it will bring another heavy rain and flood threat to southern India next week, especially Tuesday into Thursday," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Houk.

While Houk is not anticipating the storm to become as strong as Gaja did, AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring the potential for it to become a depression or cyclonic storm.

"Even if it does not get that strong, we are still looking at a scenario where the hardest-hit areas can pick up 300 mm (a foot) of rain, especially if the storm ends up stalling and strengthening for a time near the coast," said Houk.

At this point, residents of Tamil Nadu, southern Andhra Pradesh and southeastern Karnataka are being put on alert for the potential flood danger next week.

The anticipated track and strength of the storm, as well as the greatest risk for flooding, will become clearer in the coming days.

A track far enough to the south would put the areas hit hardest by Gaja at risk for the flooding rain. There are also indications that the downpours may expand farther to the north than what occurred during Gaja.

"Chennai, which missed most of the moisture from Gaja, looks to be more in line for the heavy rain out of this storm," said Houk.

If the storm becomes a cyclonic storm, a portion of the coast may also face local damaging winds.

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Even in the absence of flash flooding, the heavy rain can lead to hazards for motorists by reducing visibility and heightening the risk of vehicles hydroplaning when traveling at highway speeds. Flight delays and cancellations can also result.

Any wet weather will aid in reducing the rainfall shortage that southern India, aside from Kerala, is currently enduring.

A dry stretch of weather should follow across southern India for the final week of November into the start of December, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls said.

"That may not mean the end to the Northeast Monsoon as rains may return around mid-December," he said.