'Zombie' Hurricane Leslie to finally unravel in Portugal, Spain this weekend

By Courtney Spamer, AccuWeather meteorologist

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

October 12, 2018, 3:43:42 PM EDT

Leslie has held on like a zombie in the Atlantic since September, but the wandering in the ocean may come to an end well before Halloween.

Leslie has been meandering the Atlantic since it first formed on Sept. 23.

Through Friday, Oct. 12, Leslie has stayed between 30 and 65 degrees west longitude well away from any land or island areas and has survived on warm waters and moisture over the middle of the Atlantic.

The tropical cyclone has been bumped around by weather systems passing by over the North Atlantic but has not encountered a strong enough system to thrust the storm toward land.

Now, all of that may change as a non-tropical feature is forecast to pull Leslie eastward and allow the storm to break out of the central Atlantic region, where it has been trapped for weeks.

"The strong front moving through the United Kingdom could pull Leslie towards Europe by early next week," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys.

Seas and surf in this area will build ahead of Leslie's approach starting with the Azores, Canary Islands and the Island of Madeira.

Leslie is interacting with some wind shear, likely bringing the storm down to tropical storm criteria on Saturday as it pushes just north of the island of Madeira.

Despite the exact strength of Leslie, waves of heavy rain, as well as gusty winds will be likely across Madeira, even if there is not direct landfall.

Increasingly heavy rain and a uptick in wind gusts are expected to start as early as late Saturday in southern Portugal.

"Wind gusts of 65 to 80 km/h (40-50 mph) are possible across southern Portugal and southwestern Spain, especially near the coasts," added Roys.

Torrential rainfall will also accompany Leslie as it moves from the coast to inland locations of the Iberian Peninsula. Rainfall amounts of 25-50 mm (1-2 inches) are likely with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 100 mm (4 inches).

The cities likely to be most affected will be Lisbon to Lagos and Faro, Portugal, and from Huelva and Seville, Spain, to the Strait of Gibraltar.

There is a remote chance that Leslie not only survives the hostile weather zone but could also drift back to the southward toward the Canary Islands and western Africa coast.

Should this be the case, rough seas would still likely affect southern Portugal and Spain, in addition to Morocco.

If Leslie makes this southerly turn and avoids land, it could make a run at the longest-lasting storm in the Atlantic Ocean.

In order for Leslie to be the longest-lived tropical cyclone on record, it would have to hold through the third week of October and into the fourth week of the month. Pacific Hurricane/Typhoon John holds the record for longevity with 31 days.

There is a chance that Leslie may rival the Atlantic tropical cyclone longevity record. That title is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane in 1899. The 1899 storm killed thousands of people in Puerto Rico and lasted for nearly 28 days.

Leslie first formed over the middle of the Atlantic and about 1,145 miles (1,845 km) west-southwest of the Azores.

During the first few days of its life, Leslie was a subtropical storm. A subtropical storm has characteristics of a tropical storm and also a non-tropical storm.

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During the late afternoon hours on Saturday, Sept. 29, Leslie had acquired full tropical characteristics.

Early on Wednesday, Oct. 3, Leslie became a hurricane. However, it would not be the last time for Leslie to do so.

By the late afternoon hours on Thursday, Oct. 4, Leslie had weakened to a tropical storm and would remain as a tropical storm into Tuesday, Oct. 9.

During the late evening hours on Oct. 9, Leslie again garnered enough strength to regain hurricane status.

Leslie is not the only system tracking through the Atlantic, the lingering circulation and moisture from Michael, which caused catastrophic damage in the Florida Gulf Coast, and Nadine will be traversing the Atlantic through the weekend.

There is the chance that Michael as a tropical rainstorm may hit part of the same area of Spain and Portugal after Leslie's arrival.