By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
September 15, 2018, 11:46:25 AM EDT
There is the potential for Isaac to strengthen to a tropical storm or hurricane while crossing the western Caribbean and entering the Gulf of Mexico next week.
Isaac became a tropical rainstorm early Saturday morning, but just because it has lost its tropical storm status does not mean it should be ignored.
As showers and thunderstorms pulse near Isaac, there is the potential for flash flooding on the Greater Antilles including Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Jamaica, as well as the islands along the northern shore of South America this weekend.
AccuWeather meteorologists are not suggesting that Isaac will turn into another Harvey, which fell apart entering the western Caribbean then rapidly regained strength while moving across the Gulf of Mexico.
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Waters are sufficiently warm over the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico for some tropical development.
"The key will be how much wind shear Isaac encounters along the way and if Isaac manages to avoid much interaction with large land areas such as Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba," Kottlowski said.
Wind shear is the increase in wind speed with altitude or over horizontal distance. Strong wind shear can prevent a tropical storm from forming and cause a hurricane to weaken. A small amount of wind shear can vent a tropical storm or hurricane just enough to allow it to strengthen.
"Some minor fluctuation in organization and strength is likely over the Caribbean into early next week, but it is from Tuesday on, as it nears and passes through the Yucatan Channel, that we really have to keep an eye on it," Kottlowski said.
Steering winds are likely to guide Isaac on a north to northwest path that could take the storm to the Louisiana or upper Texas coast during the middle to latter part of next week.
Part of the coast from Louisiana to Texas has been hit by drenching rain while flooding downpours will continue to affect parts of Texas through Saturday, due to an influx of tropical moisture.
While people from the western Caribbean to the United States Gulf Coast should go about their business into next week, they are urged to monitor the situation for any significant changes in Isaac's strength, but at the same time not dismiss Isaac
Download the free AccuWeather app to keep up-to-date with any bulletins related to Isaac and risk of flooding from ongoing downpours.
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