By Kristina Pydynowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
September 15, 2018, 11:58:43 AM EDT
The flood disaster worsening across the Carolinas this weekend will last for days, even weeks after Florence stops unloading extreme rainfall.
Despite Florence no longer being a hurricane, catastrophic flash flooding and major river flooding is only expected to mount across North Carolina and northern South Carolina.
"Flooding will be catastrophic in some areas and access to some communities will only be possible by boat into later next week," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Mike Doll. "This is truly a life-threatening situation."
Florence will finally leave the region by Monday, but some communities can be underwater for days, if not weeks afterwards.
A large area of North Carolina and northern South Carolina are expected to be inundated with 8-16 inches of rain with 16-32 inches over parts of southern and southeastern North Carolina.
As AccuWeather has been warning about since early this week, well ahead of other sources, there can be an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 40 inches in southeastern North Carolina.
More lives and property will be in peril as urban and low-lying flooding escalates to major river flooding. Residents will be subject to flash flood emergencies, water rescues and evacuations.
Florence is already being blamed for the deaths of five people.
Coastal flooding and isolated tornadoes can further damage property this weekend. More residents may lose power as wind gusts to 50 mph can down other trees and power lines.
Download the free AccuWeather app to receive life-saving flood alerts and the latest on Florence's impacts.
People survey the damage caused by Hurricane Florence on Front Street in downtown New Bern, N.C., on Friday, Sept. 14, 2018. (AP Photo/Chris Seward)
It may take weeks for all of the runoff from Florence’s inundation to drain downstream.
"For this reason, river flooding is sometimes called a slow-moving natural disaster," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski stated.
The Northeast Cape Fear, Pee Dee, Lumber and Waccamaw rivers are projected by National Weather Service Hydrologists to be at major flood stage through most of the upcoming week.
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Record crests will be challenged or shattered in some communities. The Little River at Manchester, North Carolina, is anticipated to soar more than 5 feetabove the current record crest of 29 feet to start the new week.
Homes, businesses and land can be underwater even as sunshine returns.
Florence will depart the Carolinas by Monday with its heaviest rainfall shifting to the central Appalachians and into the Northeast.
Showers and thunderstorms will persist across the Carolinas Monday into Tuesday before much-needed dry weather dominates during the middle to latter part of next week.
Warm and humid conditions, however, will put a strain on residents without power and air conditioning and recovery crews.
Even as floodwaters recede, washed out and damaged roads and bridges can further prolong the region’s return to normalcy.
"The drinking water in some areas can become contaminated," according to Doll. Standing water can also serve as breeding grounds for mosquitoes and other insects.
"Utility outages may last for weeks, especially for coastal communities," according to Doll.
The unfolding natural disaster is projected to take a costly toll on property.
"AccuWeather estimates that Florence will cause $30-60 billion in economic impact and damage. To put this in context, we correctly predicted the full extent of Hurricane Harvey’s economic damage to be $190 billion last year. While we expect an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 40 inches of rain, extensive inland flooding and storm surge flooding from Florence, Hurricane Harvey unleashed more than 60 inches of rain locally centered around the United States’ fourth largest city, Houston, which has a population of 2.3 million,” AccuWeather Founder and President Dr. Joel N. Myers said.
"For further context, we accurately estimated the total economic impact from Hurricane Irma would be $100 billion. Additionally, Florence’s projected toll is less than Hurricane Sandy's toll of $69 billion and Katrina's cost of $161 billion," Myers said.
"Other sources are predicting a financial toll for Florence of up to $170 billion, and we think that is extreme when looking at Florence’s track and impacts to people and their lives. Florence made landfall in North Carolina as a Category 1 storm Friday morning. Storms of this magnitude have struck the U.S. coastline in the past, in some cases causing $10 billion or less in total damage,” Myers said.
Florence has already unloaded more than 20 inches of rain as of Saturday morning with one preliminary rainfall total in excess of 30 inches.
If 40 inches of rain falls, it will be the heaviest amount of rain from a single storm in the Lower 48 states since Hurricane Harvey last year.
Prior to Florence, North Carolina’s tropical rainfall record was 24.06 inches set during Hurricane Floyd in 1999.
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