Severe weather outbreak to begin over US Plains as weekend draws to a close

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

June 24, 2018, 6:28:00 PM EDT

A severe weather outbreak seems likely to target portions of the Plains through Monday.

A storm that moved ashore in British Columbia, Canada, on Friday will gather strength as it dips across the Rockies then spins northeastward across the Plains from Sunday to Monday, then the Upper Midwest on Tuesday.

During Sunday afternoon and night, storms will target areas from eastern Colorado to much of southern Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma.

"All modes of severe weather can occur during the afternoon and evening hours, from damaging winds, large hail, downpours and even some tornadoes," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski.

"During the overnight hours, the thunderstorms may cluster into a more organized complex that may continue to produce damaging winds and flooding rain along its path," Pydynowski said.

"On the heels of the severe weather to end the week and start the weekend in part of the same area, residents may not have much time to cleanup," she added. 

The storm and severe weather will continue to advance slowly eastward early this week.

On Monday and Monday night, a broad area of strong to potentially severe storms, including the risk of isolated tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail, will extend from parts of Nebraska and Iowa to Oklahoma and western Illinois. 

By Tuesday, even though the storm itself may be past its peak, storms may still pack a punch from parts of the western Great Lakes to the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys.

"During the multiple-day severe weather event, people should pay close attention to severe weather alerts on cell phones and other media as lives and property are likely to be threatened," Pydynowski said.

The last significant, multiple-day outbreak to affect the Central states occurred during the last several days of May.

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More than 500 reports of severe weather ranging from large hail and damaging winds occurred, including more than 50 tornadoes, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Severe weather occurred in at least 20 states in the middle part of the nation during the late-May event.

So far, the preliminary number of number of tornado reports is less than half of the prior three-year average for the nation to date. The three-year average of confirmed tornadoes was about 820 by late June. This year's count, which includes a mix of confirmed tornadoes during January, February and March with preliminary tornado reports from April, May and June is between 400 and 410 as of June 22. As the data is sorted out, the actual count is likely to go lower.

People should not let their guard down despite the lower numbers. All it takes is a single tornado to strike a heavily populated area and cause great loss of life and destruction.