Tuesday, August 31, 2021

Skies went dark: Historians pinpoint the very 'worst year' ever to be alive

 By Mark Puleo, AccuWeather staff writer





You wake up to a dark, dreary, glum-feeling, Monday-type of morning. For the 547th consecutive day.

Just 18 months prior, you were a hard-working farmer gearing up for another bountiful crop season.

But then the skies went dark.

From early 536 to 537, they stayed dark. Across much of eastern Europe and throughout Asia, spring turned into summer and fall gave way to winter without a day of sunshine. Like a blackout curtain over the sun, millions of people across the world's most populated countries squinted through dim conditions, breathing in chokingly thick air and losing nearly every crop they were relying on to harvest.

This isn't the plot of a dystopian TV drama or a fantastical "docufiction" production.

The moon passing in front of the sun during an annular solar eclipse on Jan. 4, 2011. (NASA/Hinode/XRT)

This was a harsh reality for the millions of people that lived through that literally dark time or, as some historians have declared, the very worst year ever to be alive.

The darkest year ahead of the darkest decade

"For the sun gave forth its light without brightness, like the moon, during this whole year, and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear nor such as it is accustomed to shed," was the grim account Procopius, a prominent scholar who became the principal Byzantine historian of the 6th century, gave in History of the Wars. "And from the time when this thing happened men were free neither from war nor pestilence nor any other thing leading to death."

Some 1,500 years later, Harvard University medieval historian Michael McCormick has reached a similarly grim conclusion about not just 536, but the dreadful decade that followed that terrible year. For people living across Europe in 536, "It was the beginning of one of the worst periods to be alive, if not the worst year," McCormick recently said.

As McCormick told AccuWeather, it was all set off by rapid, drastic climate change. In the spring of 536, a volcanic eruption triggered the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA), McCormick told AccuWeather. And its ramifications, on top of ensuing eruptions in 540 and 547, were devastating.

Jason Anderson, 42, takes pictures as the sun is visible through thick smoke generated by the Bobcat Fire in San Dimas, Calif., Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2020. Hazy clouds of smoke from dozens of wildfires darkened the sky to an eerie orange glow over much of the West Coast on Wednesday, keeping street lights illuminated during the day and putting residents on edge. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

"Aerosols for the big volcanic eruptions blocked solar radiation, dropping the solar heating of the Earth’s surface," he told AccuWeather in an email, adding that climate analysis from Cambridge University in the U.K. done on tree rings show the average summer temperature "dropped by between 1.5 degrees and 2.5 degrees Celsius across Eurasia."

That's up to 2.7 to 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit cooler due to the heavy smog left behind after the eruption. The skies remained dimmed for up to 18 months, multiple historical witnesses recounted, triggering the dark year of turmoil that earned 536 its dubious distinction.

Weather patterns were severely affected by the blocked sunlight, leading to summer snowfall in China and the lowest temperature levels in more than 2,300 years, according to recorded historical accounts and climate reconstruction analysis.

In the Middle East, China and Europe, a dense fog was an inescapable daily nightmare while widespread agricultural challenges in Ireland resulted in a "failure of bread from the years 536–539 AD," according to The Gaelic Irish Annals.

Much of scientists' understanding of the impacts from the Iceland volcano were found during the Historical Ice Core Project, a partnership between the University of Maine and Harvard University that McCormick co-led along with Professor Paul Mayewski of the Climate Change Institute. Using ice core samples from Iceland, the team mapped out an archeological timeline to pinpoint when and where the initial volcanic eruption must have occurred in Iceland.

Its impacts were widespread and deadly.

"Ancient eyewitnesses report that the sun stopped shining brightly for 14-18 months," McCormick said. "The result was several years of failed harvests, famines, causing migrations and turbulence across Eurasia."

The outbreak of the original bubonic plague

While the 6th century outbreak of the bubonic plague may be less remembered than the 14th-century reoccurrence of the disease (which came to be known as the Black Death), the 6th-century pandemic was still responsible for destroying at least one-third of the eastern Roman Empire population, leading to its collapse.

Dubbed the Justinian Pandemic or the Plague of Justinian, the disease spread throughout Roman Egypt before infecting the rest of the world over the ensuing 200 years. McCormick said ancient DNA has shown the disease-causing pathogen to beYersinia pestis, bubonic plague, a disease of rats and other rodents that spilled over into human populations.

In the wake of the climate-altering volcanic eruptions and darkened year of 536, McCormick said the situation was fatally ripe for the plague to wreak havoc.

Lava flows from an eruption of a volcano on the Reykjanes Peninsula in southwestern Iceland on Monday, March 29, 2021. Iceland's latest volcano eruption is still attracting crowds of people hoping to get close to the gentle lava flows. (AP Photo/Marco Di Marco)

Although he said there has yet to be a precise relation established between the abrupt onset of the LALIA and the Justinianic Pandemic, McCormick said that "it seems likely that, for instance, the food shortages caused by the sudden cooling in many parts of Eurasia weakened the populations and made them more susceptible to the pathogen." The famines almost certainly led to mass migrations of people as well, he said, likely carrying the disease with them.

Compared to the modern-day hardships dealt by COVID-19, the differences are shocking.

"You have to take the period as a whole," he said, adding that "536 was just the beginning of a very tough time. The plague pandemic on top of the abrupt cooling must have been very difficult. Today COVID-19 is terrible, but compare the death rate for bubonic plague," he continued, pointing to the 1.8% case-fatality ratio in the U.S. compared to the 40% to 60% mortality rate for untreated bubonic plague.

So just how massive must those volcanic eruptions have been?

Multiple history-altering eruptions captured in ice

Mayewski, a glaciologist from the University of Maine, was also heavily involved in the Historical Ice Core Project and he told Science Mag that his team was able to analyze 2,000 years worth of historic, natural disasters taken from a 72-meter drilling in Iceland that presented the researchers with a historical timeline of element levels.

Using a laser to carve 120-micron slivers of ice from the core, scientists could analyze the element spikes and drops of different moments in history to line them up with disasters that helped better piece together our understanding of what shaped the world we live in today.

In the ice sample from the spring of 536, graduate student Laura Hartman and volcanologist Andrei Kurbatov found microscopic particles of volcanic glass, which closely matched glass particles previously found in lakes around Europe and an ice core sample taken from Greenland.

Kurbatov concluded that the perfectly disastrous mix of winds and weather in 536 must have guided the plume across Europe and into Asia, casting a chilly pall as the volcanic fog "rolled through."

Other researchers also believe that the Icelandic 536 eruption emitted thick ash that spread across the Northern Hemisphere, pumping large quantities of sulfate into the atmosphere, according to a 2015 article in Smithsonian Magazine.

On top of that eruption, other studies conducted recently have suggested that there could have been more than one volcano responsible for that time period's tragedies.

Mount St. Helens in Washington spews smoke, soot and ash into the sky in April 1980 (Photo/AP/Jack Smith)

The other notable blast, researchers says, is believed to have been one of the strongest eruptions of the last 10,000 years, likely only comparable to the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora.

That Mount Tambora eruption also led to a similarly bleak year, as much of 1816 was also shrouded in darkness, leading to unprecedented low temperatures and hundreds of thousands of deaths from the eruption and starvation due to that season's failed crops. That time period became known as "The Year Without a Summer." In the United States, snow fell in June in New York and Maine while heavy frosts and ice storms occurred as late as July in the region.

In the 6th century, the other history-altering volcano erupted about 5,000 miles away from Iceland in Central America, with a volcanic blast more than a hundred times stronger than the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens, Researcher Robert Dull told National Geographic.

A team of researchers published a study in the Quaternary Science Reviews placing the location of the eruption in central El Salvador from the dormant Ilopango. Today, a lake the size of 28 square miles sits in the volcanic caldera left behind.

“This is the largest eruption in Central America that human beings have ever witnessed,” Dull, a geologist at California Lutheran University, told the publication. “The importance of the event is even greater, both how the Maya overcame it and how it impacted what happened next.”

The pair of cataclysmic eruptions are believed to have combined to trigger the following decade’s years of disease, famine and tragedy. 

The dust veil

Using historical dating techniques such as tree ring analysis and stable carbon isotope records, the researchers presented a model to depict just how brutal life was for people alive at that time.

The dust veil, they say, reduced normal levels of solar radiation and thus ruined years of crop harvests, and "contributed to remarkably simultaneous outbreaks of famine," leaving humans with a long-term lack of vitamin D, which diminished health and quality of life in those years of darkness.

Smoke obscures the sun as fire approaches a ridge along Highway 36 as several wildfires burn in the state Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2020, south of Lyons, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

McCormick said that as more natural climate records and LALIA reconstructions are better understood, scientists will be able to be better understand how that dust veil drastically changed the weather in different parts of the Northern Hemisphere.

"The Arabian peninsula for instance, might have become a little less dry, while the effect seems more dramatic and negative north of the Mediterranean," he said. "So far, most of the natural climate records from which the LALIA has been reconstructed come from Eurasia and North America, so more northerly latitudes."

Even if it may sound hard to believe given the past 100 years of multiple World Wars and numerous, devastating pandemics, McCormick told History.com that the horrifying period of history was not blown out of proportion by witness accounts.

“It was a pretty drastic change; it happened overnight,” he said. “The ancient witnesses really were onto something. They were not being hysterical or imagining the end of the world.”

CORRECTION: The smog caused by the volcano caused temperatures across Eurasia to cool by 2.7 to 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit, not 36 degrees Fahrenheit as a previous version of this story stated. The error was the result of a conversion mistake. 

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Hurricane Ida leaves Louisiana flooded, drove 'final dagger' into town

 By Mark Puleo, AccuWeather staff writer

Published Aug. 30, 2021 1:29 PM EDT Updated Aug. 31, 2021 9:46 AM EDT










August 29 is not a day to celebrate in Louisiana. On the 16th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina's devastation, Hurricane Ida brewed up its own tragedies on Sunday afternoon, drawing dangerously similar comparisons to its predecessor.

In what could very well be the 2021 season's most devastating hurricane, Ida has left much of the southeastern portion of Louisiana underwater and without power, and authorities are scrambling to reach those affected by the hurricane's wrath.

Upon developing into the year's second major hurricane, Ida reached Category 4 strength and slammed into the marshy coast of Louisiana in the town of Port Fourchon, less than 50 miles from where Katrina made landfall. But while most systems quickly weaken overland, Ida took its time, spending 16 hours as a whirling hurricane before dropping to tropical storm strength early Monday.

As of Monday morning, the hurricane was blamed for at least one death. The fatality occurred outside Baton Rouge in Prairieville, where a man was killed after a tree fell on his home, the Ascension Parish Sheriff’s Office reported on Sunday.

Reports of injuries and possible fatalities are expected to continue to emerge on early this week, as accounts of treacherous rescues from Sunday night come to light. In St. John Parish, multiple residents in the town of LaPlace were trapped in their attics on Monday morning, reminiscent of the tragedies that claimed many lives during Katrina.

"We have one confirmed death, but I don't want to mislead anyone. Robust search and rescue is happening right now, and I fully expect that that death count will go up considerably throughout the day," Lousiana Gov. John Bel Edwards said in an interview with MSNBC.

On Monday evening, a second death was confirmed. This second fatality occurred in New Orleans when a man drowned after attempting to cross floodwaters near Interstate 10, according to the Louisiana Department of Health. Two additional deaths were confirmed as a result of Ida on Monday night. The fatalities occurred after a section of a highway in Mississippi was washed out following Ida's heavy rain.

While 911 dispatchers have been answering calls, there have been no ways for emergency crews to reach the endangered residents in LaPlace, WWLTV reported. On social media, one man posted that he was out rescuing people all night but had “people drown” in his arms near LaPlace. Another user added that he was doing CPR on a drowning victim.

On Bamboo Road in LaPlace, resident Tiffany Miller spoke with WDSU while she sheltered in her attic, telling reporters that she believes there was 3 to 5 feet of floodwater in the homes of her subdivision.

"When we got in the attic, the water was right below my knees," Miller said. "For the water to get that high in my house, the water outside needs to be at least waist deep."

Near the coast, the city of Houma, which is located about 60 miles southwest of New Orleans, was dealt some of the most severe damage, as pelting rain created zero visibility and debris went flying. It was there where Extreme Meteorologist Reed Timmer recorded wreckage from a tattered roof sprawled across a street, crashing into a nearby utility pole.

Houma was home to some of the storm’s strongest wind speeds as well, with gusts reaching 148 mph at nearby Grand Isle. The strongest wind gust recording of the storm occurred at the spot of landfall in Port Fourchon, which topped out at 172 mph, equivalent to that of a Category 5 hurricane if it was sustained.

The 172-mph reading was recorded by instrumentation onboard a ship docked at Port Fourchon and was later confirmed by the National Weather Service, verifying that Ida’s strength was that of a dangerously strong Category 4 hurricane.

In New Orleans, where residents of the Big Easy hadn't quickly forgotten Hurricane Zeta's impacts from 10 months ago, let alone the trauma of Katrina, Ida's forceful winds left numerous buildings roofless and spewed debris throughout the city. As of Monday morning, the entire city was without power due to what was deemed "catastrophic transmission damage," the city’s Office of Homeland Security & Emergency Preparedness said in a tweet.

More than 1 million customers were without power throughout Sunday evening and Monday morning, as well as over 100,000 in neighboring Mississippi.

The power outages were also at fault for the blanketing collapses of 911 phone lines in Orleans and St. Charles parishes. In Orleans Parish, the Emergency Communications Center shared on Monday morning that if stranded residents are in need of rescue, the most reliable strategy was to "go to your nearest fire station or approach your nearest officer."

The strength of Ida's winds are largely to blame for that catastrophic transmission damage. Upon undergoing rapid intensification, the hurricane reached maximum sustained winds of 150 mph at landfall with a central atmospheric pressure of 27.46 inches of mercury (930 millibars), tying Hurricane Laura for the strongest winds of any hurricane on record in Louisiana and ranking second only to Katrina for lowest pressure.

President Joe Biden on Monday pledged extensive federal resources to aid with recovery from Ida in the affected regions. Speaking at a virtual briefing on Hurricane Ida, CNBC reported, Biden said that at least 5,000 members of the National Guard had been activated across the southeastern U.S. to help with recovery and more than 25,000 electrical workers from 30 states were on the way to help get the power back on. “We’re there to help you get back on your feet,” the president said.

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Extreme Meteorologist Reed Timmer surveys damage as Ida’s inner eyewall moves into Houma, Louisiana, on Aug. 29.

Along with the incomparable winds, the storm’s deluge of rain and storm surge inundated the region with flooding. One side effect of that rush of water was an intense rising of water levels in the Mississippi River. According to USGS hydrologists, the river level rose about 7 feet on Sunday due to the storm surge, forcing the river to temporarily flow in the opposite direction.

"During that time, the flow of the river slowed from about 2 feet per second down to about half a foot per second in the other direction," hydrologist Scott Perrien told CNN.

The heavy flooding also triggered the need for emergency water rescues in lower Jefferson Parish. The storm’s most intense rain fell in the area of Lake Ponchatrain, where up to 18 inches of precipitation were recorded. In the nearby town of Jean Lafitte, Mayor Tim Kerner told WGNO that the devastation was the worst he had ever seen.

“It's catastrophic,” he said. “Our town levees have been overtopped. I have never seen so much water in my life. It's turned into a total rescue mission. People's lives are at stake now.”

Kerner said that waters topping the 7.5-foot-tall floodwall protecting the town was the “final dagger” for residents, which includes about 200 people stranded in Barataria after a breakaway barge destroyed the connecting bridge to the island.

While there were mandatory evacuation orders in place for many areas, many residents made the decision to stay.

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In the New Orleans area of Treme, longtime resident Martha Wiggins told AccuWeather National Reporter Bill Wadell that Ida was one of the biggest hurricanes she’s ever lived through. She told Wadell that she was thankful that many residents took the warnings seriously but explained why many had no choice but to stay.

“Evacuating is expensive and not everybody has the ability to do it, not everybody has the ability to stay at a hotel like I did,” she said. “I think people have to kind of weigh out their options." She added that, unfortunately, it comes down to money for a lot of people. "I would hope that people were able to do whatever made them feel the most comfortable, the most safe, and for some people it is staying home.”

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Man missing at sea for nearly 2 weeks found alive in life raft off Washington coast

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