Thursday, December 3, 2020

Formidable East Coast storms often share one thing in common

 By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist & Meghan Mussoline, AccuWeather meteorologist




The strongest nor’easters in the past have been given nicknames like “The Storm of the Century" and “The Perfect Storm," and the term nor’easter may conjure up images of angry seas and fishermen shouting at each other over the roar of massive waves in a boat taking on water in the blockbuster 2000 film named after the latter. Given that, a forecast calling for a nor’easter -- a term that dates back hundreds of years -- can rightfully turn heads and make people living along the Eastern Seaboard pay close attention to the expected conditions.

For this reason, AccuWeather meteorologists typically reserve using the term nor’easter for the most intense such storms. Forecasters typically refer to a storm as a nor'easter when significant impacts to lives and property are expected.

However, in order for meteorologists to classify a storm as a nor’easter in the first place, it must meet specific criteria. It is true that some nor'easters unleash fierce blizzard conditions, but this alone is not a criterion for this type of storm. Nor is there a requirement for high winds or snowfall in the first place.

A nor'easter is simply any large storm that brings northeasterly winds along the Atlantic coast of North America, according to the National Weather Service (NWS) definition. These storms can stir a driving breeze from a northeasterly direction and trigger rain in place of snow. But, somewhere, within a nor'easter's circulation, winds are likely to blow from directions other than from the northeast. It's the coastal winds that matter the most when it comes to classifying a storm as a nor'easter.

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Intense strengthening can occur as nor'easters move along strong temperature contrast zones, or cold fronts, in the eastern United States. Strengthening is especially likely if a storm rams into high pressure sitting over southeastern Canada or northern New England. In this case, the difference in pressure between the high and the storm -- marked by an area of low pressure -- can really cause winds to whip up. In the most severe cases, winds can approach hurricane force -- 74 mph or greater -- even when the storm is non-tropical in nature.

It is possible for a nor'easter to intensify dramatically enough to become a bomb cyclone, which is a storm that strengthens so fast that the central barometric pressure falls by 0.71 of an inch of mercury (24 millibars) within 24 hours.

These storms can occur during any month of the year but are much more common, and often become more severe, between September and April. Severe nor'easters can lash the East Coast with flooding rainfall, extreme snowfall, blizzard conditions, damaging winds, rough seas and coastal flooding.

In the nor'easters that rapidly ramp up and join forces with enough cold air, snowfall can quickly pile up with several inches falling per hour. The heaviest snow bands can even be accompanied by thunder snow.

Meteorologists are quick to clear up one common misconception around nor'easters -- not all of these storms move along in a northeasterly direction. Sometimes nor'easters can stall or move in other directions altogether.

Long before the social media era, nor'easter became a go-to term that forecasters tapped to raise awareness and explain storm severity, similar to the more recent viral catchphrases such as "superstorm" and "snowmageddon."

The word nor'easter was morphed from the word "northeaster," used by New Englanders. It became increasingly popular during the latter part of the 20th century, according to Boston.com's Alan Wirzbicki. However, the term "northeaster" may have originated back in the United Kingdom -- rather than in New England -- during the 1700s. Some accounts date the term back even earlier to late in the 16th century. A book about seafaring first mentioned the term in 1594, according to The Bangor Daily News.

Fast-forward several hundred years, and many of the storms that stand out as blockbusters for the East Coast often share one thing in common -- they were nor'easters. In fact, one even inspired a motion picture, starring George Clooney in 2000. The movie focused on the Halloween Storm of 1991 and was based on a novel called The Perfect Storm. The so-called Perfect Storm of 1991 lashed the coast of New England and the mid-Atlantic with damaging winds and coastal flooding as tremendous seas were stirred offshore.

"With the Perfect Storm, you just had the pounding of the coast for three days in a row or more with a strong, powerful onshore flow," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek said, explaining that the remnants of Hurricane Grace merged with a non-tropical storm from the Canadian Maritimes, an area of coastal southern Canada that includes the provinces of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island, to form the formidable nor'easter. Waves as high as 100 feet and winds of 70 mph were reported in the Perfect Storm.

Just a couple of hundred miles farther inland, the weather across the central and southern Appalachians was generally dry and sunny -- and even tranquil -- as the storm raged along the Atlantic Seaboard.

Nor'easters don't always unleash adverse conditions well inland, but compact storms can still cause severe impacts along the immediate coastline.

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Another notorious nor'easter, which has come to be known as the Storm of the Century or the Blizzard of 1993, walloped coastal areas, but impacts were also felt much farther inland. The storm unloaded 1 to 3 feet of snow across a massive area of the eastern U.S. When combined with wind gusts of tropical storm and hurricane force, the storm caused snowdrifts as high as single-story homes in parts of the Appalachians.

Emergency declarations were issued in a dozen states as significant snowfall shut down roads, airports and schools across the East Coast for days.

“I was outside for less than 5 minutes [during the height of the storm] and I was actually scared; it was actually scary to be outside. That’s how bad that storm was,” Dombek said, adding that it was clear to AccuWeather meteorologists days in advance of the storm's arrival that the worst-case scenario was about to unfold. It is estimated that the historic blizzard caused $6 to $11 billion in damages and killed more than 300 people.

Four nor'easters in a row pummeled the East Coast during the spring of 2018 within a three-week period during March. The first of the three storms each unleashed more than 2 feet of snow across parts of the East. New England was in the bull's-eye for snow from both the second and third storms, and power outages were widespread. The last storm to strike brought 8 inches of snow to Central Park and more than a foot of snow to parts of Long Island.

A motorist drives through flood waters in Wintrhrop, Mass., Saturday, March 3, 2018, a day after a nor'easter pounded the Atlantic coast with hurricane-force winds and sideways rain and snow, flooding streets, grounding flights, stopping trains and leaving 1.6 million customers without power from North Carolina to Maine. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)

The back-to-back storms unleashed storm surge that rivaled levels caused by other major storms like Superstorm Sandy from 2012 and caused significant coastal erosion.

Despite the common use of the term nor'easter, some New Englanders have campaigned to drop its use altogether, calling it pretentious. Among them was a former editor for the Portland Press Herald by the name of Edgar Comee, according to The Bangor Daily News. A resident of Brunswick, Maine, he passionately worked to stamp out the term nor'easter and even was the tongue-in-cheek chairman of an Ad Hoc Committee for Stamping Out Nor’easter -- a committee of one, according to The New Yorker. At least it said so in postcards that he handed out to hundreds of journalists in the early 2000s.

“Now hear this!” the postcard read. “The use of nor’easter to describe a northeast storm is a pretentious and altogether lamentable affectation, the odious, even loathsome, practice of landlubbers who would be seen as salty as the sea itself.”

It went on to read: “You will of course accept my view in this matter in good part and will never again use nor’easter, at least in public, and thus oblige," and was signed, "Your most humble petitioner, Edgar Comee, Chairman, Ad Hoc Committee for Stamping Out Nor’easter.”

Comee -- who admitted his own wife from the mountains of North Carolina could care less about his cause -- added unknowing "members" to his committee as he recorded clippings from letters and print that shared similar sentiments to his on the term nor'easter. One of the most scathing of these referred to the use of the term as a "festering sore in today’s marine and weather journalism." That line was printed in The Working Waterfront by a seafood entrepreneur named Ed Myers.

Another letter he collected was sent to the Portland Press Herald, written by a G.W. Helfrich, and pointed out that should a contraction be used it ought to be no'theaster, given that New Englanders, who often face the fury of these tempests, "exercise considerable invention in avoiding the letter 'r.'"

However, meteorologists explain that the term -- regardless of the exact contraction used -- can be effective in warning those who live along the coast that a storm could unleash a slew of hazards. For now, at least, it appears the term isn't going anywhere.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

Record-breaking 2020 Atlantic hurricane season officially over ... but could still break more records

 By Mark Puleo, AccuWeather staff writer

Updated Dec. 1, 2020 2:27 PM






Generating storms at a rapid-fire pace and filled with enough plot twists to rival an M. Night Shyamalan movie, the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season started early and ended with a trio of storms in late October through mid-November. And, as AccuWeather Chief Broadcast Meteorologist Bernie Rayno remarked, "it never stopped" in between.

AccuWeather’s team of tropical weather forecasters, led by veteran meteorologist Dan Kottlowski, saw many of the plot twists coming way back in March when they called for a ”hyperactive” Atlantic basin season to ensue, and the 2020 hurricane season indeed provided steadfast suspense with what seemed like daily new tropical developments and all manner of unique storm tracks.

Along with giving multiple pages of the hurricane record book some new ink, the 2020 season also challenged conventional logic for some long-held assumptions about hurricane season, such as the pace at which a storm intensifies and the areas where certain storms may hit.

Plus, the 2020 season also demonstrated how the official June 1 beginning and Nov. 30 end of hurricane season are flexible dates in the eyes of Mother Nature.

For just the second time in the modern hurricane-naming era, the Atlantic season exhausted its pre-determined list of designated storm names for the season. After burning through the 21 names from the English alphabet by mid-September, the season began moving through the Greek alphabet for the first time since 2005.

A satellite loop showing Hurricane Laura's journey from the Caribbean Sea northward across the Gulf of Mexico and making landfall as a Category 4 storm along the Louisiana coast in late August. (NOAA / AccuWeather)

With 30 named storms this year, the 2020 season shattered the record previously held by the infamous 2005 season for most named systems in a single season. Of those 30, 13 became hurricanes and six of those became major hurricanes – Category 3 or stronger. And just because the Atlantic basin hurricane season ends on Nov. 30, that doesn't mean more tropical cyclone activity won't happen this year -- more on that below.

Like a well-rounded prizefighter, the season packed speed, strength and stamina into its six-month marathon. Here are some of the biggest takeaways that will be remembered when looking back on the 2020 season:

Speed

Right out of the gates, even before hurricane season was officially underway, a flurry of storms developed and broke many records in the process. The season's first named system, Tropical Storm Arthur, formed on May 14 and was quickly followed by Tropical Storm Bertha 10 days later. The pair of May storms marked the first Atlantic basin hurricane season since 2012 that featured two "pre-season" storms, as both formed before June 1, the official beginning of the Atlantic basin hurricane season.

That quick pace set the tone for the season, in which dozens of records were broken. After Bertha, Tropical Storm Cristobal became the fastest forming C-letter storm on record, and while Tropical Storm Dolly didn't get the record for earliest-forming D-letter storm, every following storm from Tropical Storm Edouard to Hurricane Iota broke the respective earliest-forming records.

The speed of intensification was also remarkable with a number of the tropical cyclones this season. According to Sam Lillo, a meteorologist with the University of Oklahoma, 10 of the season's 13 hurricanes underwent rapid intensification, matching a record set by the 1995 season.

Rapid intensification is defined as a storm undergoing a maximum wind increase of at least 29 mph within a 24-hour period. Lillo added that six of those storms were Greek-letter storms.

One of those rapidly intensifying storms, Zeta, also packed notable forward speed during its trek across the Gulf of Mexico. Barreling toward Louisiana, the hurricane moved at a breakneck pace of 22 mph and quickly jumped from Category 1 to Category 2 strength just before coming ashore.

At the spot of landfall, AccuWeather National Reporter Jonathan Petramala captured the moments Zeta bolted onshore and tore homes apart.

Strength

Although the storms of 2020 will certainly be remembered for their quantity and rapid succession, the cumulative strength of the season, recognized by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index, paints a different picture.

While this year's season packed the highest number of total named storms of any season on record, the ACE index suggests that the season may have been more mild than extreme.

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"The Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index characterizes the intensity and longevity of all storms in a year," AccuWeather Broadcast Meteorologist Geoff Cornish said. "While the Atlantic produced more storms than any other year on record, the ACE generated by the 30 storms was disproportionately low."

Cornish explained that as the season draws to a close, "2020 lands in 13th place for ACE generated in a year." Records on ACE have been kept going back to 1851. "In other words," Cornish noted, "12 other years produced more ACE in the Atlantic than the 2020 season."

For perspective, Cornish, citing data from Colorado State University, pointed to the years 1933, 2005, 1893 and 1926 as Atlantic basin hurricane seasons that ranked substantially higher on the ACE Index despite having fewer storms.

"This indicates there were several weak storms during the season," Dan Kottlowski, AccuWeather's chief hurricane expert, said, adding, "2005 had more intense hurricanes with five Category 5 hurricanes." Kottlowksi pointed out that 2020 produced only one Category 5 storm, Iota, the last hurricane of the season (so far).

"For much of this year, the ACE generated per storm has been half of the long-term, historical average," Cornish pointed out. "In other words, we've had a swarm of weaker, short-lived storms. However, there have been a few great exceptions like Teddy [the year's top ACE producer with 27.8 units], Eta, Paulette, the storm that wouldn't go away, Delta, Epsilon, Laura and Iota." All of those storms produced 10 or more units of ACE.

While Teddy, a Category 4 hurricane in September, produced the highest ACE, history is more likely to remember the devastating landfalls of hurricanes such as Laura in Louisiana and the combo of Eta and Iota in Central America.

Laura struck the Bayou State with landfalling winds not seen since pre-Civil War America, causing about $25 to $30 billion of damage, according to AccuWeather estimates. Louisiana was further damaged by Hurricane Delta and Hurricane Zeta en route to a record-breaking season for the state.

However, despite the cornucopia of previous storms, no 2020 storm packed as much punch as the final named storm of the season, Hurricane Iota.

Iota reached Category 5 strength on Nov. 16, becoming the first hurricane on record ever to reach that strength so late in a season. At its peak intensity, sustained winds hit 160 mph and the storm's central barometric pressure reached a minimum of 27.08 inches of mercury, or 917 millibars, as its center made a close pass by the Colombian islands of San Andrés, Providencia and Santa Catalina. Low barometric pressure is a telltale sign of a storm's powerful intensity.

Iota would go on to slam Central America in nearly the same exact spot that Hurricane Eta had wrought devastation less than two weeks before. Eta, which made landfall in Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, struck with Category 4 strength and claimed dozens of lives and left hundreds more missing.

Just two weeks later, Iota came ashore less than 15 miles from Puerto Cabezas and dealt another tragic blow to the region, triggering a humanitarian crisis with millions of residents being trapped in what AccuWeather Founder and CEO Dr. Joel N. Myers called "one of the worst floods in some of these areas in a thousand years or more."

Kottlowksi suggested that one reason that the 2020 season produced so many named storms could have something to do with meteorologists' enhanced ability to spot lesser tropical cyclones as technology has advanced over the years. He said that "newer technology enables forecasters to better analyze the smaller, less-detectable storms, and we had a few very short-lived storms, which might not have been detected more than 20 years ago."

Stamina

“It started early – and it never stopped,” AccuWeather Chief Broadcast Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said of the 2020 Atlantic basin hurricane season.

What the 2020 season may be most remembered for is just how long it lasted and its exhausting pace. “Typically, we get the mid-season doldrums in mid-July to mid-August,” Rayno said. “That didn’t happen this year.”

In fact, the season never had a period of two consecutive weeks without at least one storm in circulation. The longest stretch without an active storm was between the end of Tropical Storm Cristobal and the start of Tropical Storm Dolly, which was 13 days.

It was common throughout the season to have multiple named storms occupying attention at once, particularly during September. At one point during the month, five different named storms – Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy and Vicky – were spinning at once.

The overabundance of storms also set a new record for the most landfalling named storms on U.S. soil in a single year -- 12 storms came ashore on the U.S. coastline, shattering the record of nine that had stood since 1916. Another record was set in Louisiana for most landfalling storms in the state for a single season.

The battered Bayou State sustained hits from five landfalling named storms this year, four of which were hurricanes. Spread out over 20 weeks, from Cristobal to Zeta, Louisiana residents never got a reprieve this season.

In terms of longevity, no 2020 storm lived longer than Paulette, which hung around for a whopping 15 days before dissipating near Portugal after impacting Bermuda a full week prior.

A look at Paulette's long history in the Atlantic Ocean. (AccuWeather)

Another notably long-lasting track was the one charted by Eta, which took a unique zig-zagging route from its initial landfalls as a hurricane in Central America, before making landfalls in Cuba and the Florida Keys as a tropical storm. Eta then made a final landfall along the west coast of Florida, near Tampa, a region that very rarely absorbs a direct hit from a tropical system.

Hurricane Eta's winding journey featured significant impacts dealt to both Central America and the United States, with a stop in Cuba in between. (AccuWeather)

In early August, Hurricane Isaias left a memorable mark on the season by ravaging the East Coast, particularly the Northeast. In Philadelphia and New York City, lives were claimed by the widespread flooding and falling trees as a result of the storm's intense winds and numerous tornadoes it spawned.

Widespread power outages also remained in the Northeast for multiple days, marking a wide-ranging spread of impacts after the storm’s initial landfall in the Bahamas. The storm restrengthened into a hurricane in time to strike North Carolina following several days when it was parallel along the coasts of Florida and Georgia.

From there, Isaias pummeled the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, leaving long-lasting memories for a region not accustomed to such storms, a sentiment Kottlowski echoed when recounting his most memorable storms of the year.

“Isaias caused considerable wind damage up the East Coast of the U.S.,” Kottlowski said. “I was impressed on how the storm maintained a very intense wind field for more than two days after moving inland.”

Have we seen the end of the 2020 season?

While Nov. 30 may mark the official end to the Atlantic basin hurricane season, Mother Nature has always played by her own rules and 2020 could prove to be no different. Forecasters were closely monitoring a system that was beginning to take shape southeast of the Azores in the eastern Atlantic on Monday, warning that it could become Subtropical Storm Kappa at any moment. Subtropical storms are hybrid systems that acquire both tropical and non-tropical characteristics.

So should we have any confidence that the 2020 season will follow the rules and end before December?

“It is very unlikely that we’d see anything hitting the United States because the westerlies – the steering flow of winds out of the west – are so strong that any storm that would try to develop would likely be steered east of the U.S.," Rayno said of the potential for tropical activity beyond Nov. 30. But, he said, considering the entirety of the Atlantic basin, “I’m not going to rule it out."

As Kottlowski pointed out, some conditions are still in place to support development. "There is considerable warm water in place over parts of the Atlantic Basin that could support late-season development even during the month of December," he said. Indeed, during the waning days of the 2020 hurricane season, water temperatures were still above 80 degrees Fahrenheit in some parts of the Gulf of Mexico. And even in some places where temperatures were below 80, they were still above average for this time of year.

“I can see another storm [developing] that would take us to 31,” Rayno said, noting that an eye should be kept on the area around Bermuda. But, he added, for the U.S., “I think essentially we’re done.”

Final tally

Depending on where people live, the 2020 season could be remembered for a plethora of different reasons.

“The big story of this season is the number of landfalls and the rapid intensification of some of these storms,” Rayno said. The two hot spots this season that really caught Rayno's attention were the areas of the Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula, which resulted in the Louisiana coast taking a beating as well as the Nicaragua coast, which Rayno dubbed "the Louisiana of Central America," being hard hit.

Kottlowski echoed that point. "Two major hurricane hits on Nicaragua and Honduras in nearly the same areas," he marveled. "Another highly unusual situation causing significant damage and suffering."

In Central America, the one-two punch of Eta and Iota could leave scars for decades, much like how the powerful effects of Hurricane Mitch from 1998 are still remembered.

In the Southeast, the barrage of Louisiana storms worked their way through inland areas and will leave plenty of dark memories following the widespread power outages that blanketed states such as Georgia.

However, for all weather enthusiasts, the memories of 2020 will be memorialized by the broken records and the nonstop twists and turns. Amid a wacky year that has left the globe upended by the coronavirus pandemic, an unprecedented and never-ending hurricane season may have been perfectly fitting. Or for some, maybe too fitting.

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