Severe thunderstorms to target Dixie Alley this week

By Brandon Buckingham, AccuWeather Meteorologist

& Courtney Spamer, AccuWeather meteorologist

SEVERE WEATHER Updated Feb. 4, 2020 4:13 AM

Mild air at the start of this week in the South will set the stage for severe thunderstorms to erupt during the middle days of this week.

Prior to the arrival of the storm system, above-average temperatures will warm much of the eastern half of the United States. This will act as one of the ingredients for the severe weather in the coming days.

A powerful storm from the Rockies early in the week will impact parts of the South on Tuesday, and enhance thunderstorms across portions of eastern Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana.

Places like Shreveport and Monroe, Louisiana; the Texarkana area and even Jackson, Mississippi, could experience heavy and gusty thunderstorms from later Tuesday into Tuesday night.

A small number of the storms can become severe wtih damaging wind gusts, hail and flash flooding.

The threat for severe weather will increase farther to the east on Wednesday. The greatest threat for severe weather is likely to extend from the middle of Wednesday afternoon to the middle of Thursday afternoon as the storm system moves along.

Parts of Mississippi, Alabama, southeastern Louisiana, western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle, may be in the line of fire on Wednesday.

"Very warm and moist air will be lofted northward out of the Gulf of Mexico into southern Louisiana and Mississippi on Wednesday. There will be the potential for severe thunderstorms later in the day on Wednesday across these areas," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Brett Rossio.

The main threats on Wednesday include damaging wind gusts and hail, but even a couple of tornadoes are possible, according to Rossio.

Numerous airports across the South could face travel delays.

Travel delays will also impact motorists at midweek. Windshield wipers will likely be working overtime across stretches of interstates 10, 20, 22, 55, 65, 75 and even all the way to the I-95 corridor by Thursday.

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Farther north across the mid-South, where there is a lesser chance of severe weather, a persistent rain could cause flooding issues. By Thursday, some localized areas could receive 2-4 inches of rainfall.

The already soaked ground means that one heavy shower or thunderstorm could result in flooding.

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The threat for heavy rain and thunderstorms will continue to expand into the Southeast into Thursday. Areas from central and southeastern Georgia to north-central and northeastern Florida as well as South Carolina and central and eastern North Carolina may face the threat for severe weather as the potent storm system tracks eastward.

"Though an isolated tornado or two will still be possible, damaging straight-line winds will be far more prevalent on Thursday across these areas," added Rossio.

Although Tornado Alley in the Plains typically has more tornadoes throughout a calendar year, in Dixie Alley they have been known to be deadlier. Faster storm motion, more densely populated areas and an increased number of nighttime tornadoes are some of the factors behind this statistic.

In the wake of the storm system, chilly air is expected to filter southward. This will allow for some snow to develop from Texas to Missouri midweek.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

France, Germany prepare for rain and cooler air while snow looms for Alps this week

By Courtney Spamer, AccuWeather meteorologist

& Adam Douty, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

WINTER WEATHER Updated Feb. 4, 2020 9:33 AM

The same storm that brought a noticeable cooldown to the British Isles early this week will spread wet and wintry weather across much of central and southeastern Europe as well.

As cold air dives southward across Europe, some locations that had rain early in the week will experience a transition to snow showers by Wednesday.

"Because of how warm it will be across much of France and Germany ahead of the storm, it will be rather difficult for it to snow in most places," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.

Snow will have the best chance to accumulate in the higher elevations of the Alps across southeastern France, Switzerland, northern Italy and Austria.

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Snow accumulations of 30-60 cm (1-2 feet) are expected across the Alps. As much as a meter (about 3 feet) of snow may pile up across the highest terrain.

Strong wind can also cause blowing and drifting snow, as well as increase avalanche danger.

Across the Balkans, precipitation will begin as rain in many areas on Tuesday. However, as colder air dives southward into the region, rain can mix with and change to snow.

The light of the low sun shines on the hoar-frost-covered foothills of the Alps near Bernbeuren, Germany, Monday, Dec. 30, 2019. (Karl-Josef Hildenbrand/dpa via AP)

Higher elevations from Romania to Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Albania are expected to have the greatest snow accumulations. In these areas, 15-30 cm (6-12 inches) of snow are likely to fall, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 60 cm (2 feet).

Even lower elevation cities such as Skopje, Macedonia; Sofia, Bulgaria; and Cluj-Napoca, Romania, can receive accumulating snow from Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could lead to slick travel on Wednesday morning across a large portion of the Balkans.

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Windy conditions in the wake of the storm could lead to blowing and drifting snow through the day on Wednesday, even after snow has ended.

High pressure building across southeastern Europe from Thursday into the weekend will provide dry weather and sunshine. Temperatures will gradually climb higher allowing for snow to melt, although any wet areas could turn icy where low temperatures fall below freezing at night.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com for the latest updates on this storm and your forecast.

The flu's impact varies by region, but several states could see a resurgence

By John Roach, AccuWeather staff writer

HEALTH Updated Feb. 3, 2020 3:50 PM

The uptick in influenza-like illnesses (ILI) that experts working with AccuWeather predicted did indeed occur. Most of the states in the United States – in a reversal of the last couple of weeks – experienced an increase in activity, according to the most recent data. However, its impact does not figure to be long-lasting for most of those states, those same experts predict. 

Visits to health care providers for ILI increased from 4.7 percent last week to 5.0% this week, a slight increase after two straight weeks of declining totals, according to the latest report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Flu activity remains high nationally, the CDC notes; researchers at the Biocomplexity Institute, who work in a research partnership with AccuWeather, see the increase as the sum of its parts. 

(Courtesy CDC)

“It’s a tough balance to strike since the picture at the national level is really a combination of a lot of smaller stories playing out in the different states,” Dr. Bryan Lewis, a professor at the Biocomplexity Institute at the University of Virginia, told AccuWeather. 

Some 38 states experienced an increase in activity; however, many of these increases were modest and many states continued to decline, the Biocomplexity researchers note. A total of 15 states had ILI activity that was considered either “moderate,” “low,” or “minimal,” according to the CDC. 

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“In general, the current forecasts aren’t calling for this ‘blip’ to continue significantly and cause a larger national second peak,” Lewis told AccuWeather. “But my gut says there are several states – and they are scattered all over the place – that could have a reasonable resurgence in the coming weeks, meaning a second peak with a couple of weeks of increasing infection, namely Missouri, Ohio, Alabama, Idaho and New England-area states.” 

The CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 15 million flu illnesses, 140,000 hospitalizations and 8,200 deaths from the flu. It’s the tenth straight week flu activity is above baseline normal (2.4 percent). Last year, levels of ILI in the U.S. were at or above baseline for 21 straight weeks. 

Influenza A continues to increase its share of activity nationally and is increasing its overall prevalence in nearly all regions, according to the Biocomplexity Institute researchers. Influenza B causes significant illness in those stricken; however, hospitalization and death are less frequent than with Influenza A. 

Flu season typically begins in October, peaks between December and February and lasts well into March although activity can last as late as May. Flu viruses are more stable in cold air and the low humidity allows the virus particles to remain in the air, according to Peter Palese, who was the lead author on a key flu study in 2007. For example, there is no real flu season in the tropics. 

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

This Date in Weather History for February 4,2020

Weather History
For Tuesday,February 4,2020

1961 - The third great snowstorm of the winter season struck the northeastern U.S. Cortland NY received 40 inches of snow. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Gales lashed the northern Pacific coast and the coast of northern New England. A storm in the central U.S. produced five inches of snow at Rapid City SD. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - A winter storm produced heavy snow from the Upper Ohio Valley to New England, with up to 12 inches reported in Vermont and New Hampshire. Strong northerly winds in the Upper Midwest produced wind chill readings as cold as 60 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Two dozen cities in the south central and northwestern U.S. reported new record low temperatures for the date. The low of 14 below zero at Boise ID was a February record. A winter storm continued in the southwestern U.S. Alta UT reported 49 inches of snow in four days, Wolf Creek CO reported 66 inches in six days, including 28 inches in 24 hours, and up to 84 inches buried the ski resorts of northern New Mexico in three days. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A winter storm produced heavy snow in the northeastern U.S. Snowfall totals in Maine ranged up to 13 inches at Gorham, with 11 inches reported at Portland. Totals in New Hampshire ranged up to 14 inches at Franconia, with 13 inches reported at Portsmouth. A mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain caused numerous traffic accidents in eastern New York State resulting in three deaths and fourteen injuries. Subzero cold also gripped parts of the northeastern U.S. Caribou ME and Houlton ME reported morning lows of 15 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2004 - 7.15 inches of rain deluges Pinson, AL, setting an all-time record rainfall over 24 hours for the town. The Weather Doctor

2007 - Kahului reports a minimum temperature of 54°F, a daily low temperature record for the date. The Weather Doctor

This Date in Weather History for February 3,2020

Weather History
For Monday,February 3,2020

1917 - Downtown Miami, FL, reported an all-time record low of 27 degrees. (David Ludlum)

1947 - The temperature at Tanacross, AK, plunged to a record 75 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Wintry weather was confined to freezing drizzle and light snow in the northeastern U.S., and light rain and snow in the western U.S. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Arctic air continued to invade the central U.S. The temperature at Midland TX plunged from a record high of 80 degrees to 37 degrees in just three hours. Morning lows in the higher elevations of Wyoming were as cold as 38 degrees below zero. Heavy snow blanketed southwestern Colorado, with 16 inches reported at Steamboat Springs. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A winter storm brought heavy snow and high winds to the western U.S. Up to three feet of snow blanketed the Sierra Nevada of California, and buried parts of northeastern Washington State under three feet of snow in five days. High winds across Washington State reached 75 mph, with gusts to 105 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Severe cold gripped the north central U.S. The morning low of 29 degrees below zero at Casper WY was a record for the month of February. Wisdom MT hit 53 degrees below zero. Missoula MT reported a wind chill reading of 85 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather over the central Gulf coast states during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms spawned seven tornadoes in Alabama, including one which touched down north of Birmingham injuring fifteen people and causing nearly three million dollars damage. A tornado at Margaret injured eleven persons and caused a million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

This Date in Weather History for February 2,2020

Weather History
For Sunday,February 2 (Super Bowl Sunday),2020

1952 - The only tropical storm of record to hit the U.S. in February moved out of the Gulf of Mexico and across southern Florida. It produced 60 mph winds, and two to four inches of rain. (2nd-3rd) (The Weather Channel)

1956 - A record snowstorm in New Mexico and west Texas began on Ground Hog's Day. The storm produced 15 inches of snow at Roswell NM, and up to 33 inches in the Texas Panhandle. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A fast moving arctic front brought snow and high winds to the north central U.S. Winds gusted to 69 mph at Brookings SD. Big Falls MN reported nine inches of snow. Record warmth was reported just ahead of the front. Burlington IA reported a record high of 59 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A dying low pressure system over southern California deluged the San Diego coastal mountains with more than four inches of rain causing half a million dollars damage. Arctic air invading the north central U.S. sent the mercury plunging to 38 degrees below zero at Park Rapids MN. Raleigh NC reported a record high of 75 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Bitter cold air covered much of the central U.S. Butte MT reported a wind chill reading of 91 degrees below zero, Salt Lake City UT was blanketed with 11.9 inches of snow in 24 hours, and winds around Reno NV gusted to 80 mph. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the southeastern U.S. Twenty-eight cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Wilmington NC with a reading of 80 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather in the Lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and evening hours. One person was injured in a tornado near Reidheimer LA. Thunderstorms northeast of Brandon MS produced hail three inches in diameter along with high winds which downed or snapped off one hundred trees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2006 - New Orleans is struck by two tornadoes, collapsing at least one previously damaged house and battering Louis Armstrong International Airport. The Weather Doctor

2008 - Hilo, HI, is deluged by 10.82 inches of rain in a period of 24 hours, breaking the previous record set in 1969 by 3.5 inches. The Weather Doctor

2011 - A high temperature of 44°F registered at Sky Harbor Airport in Phoenix, AZ, sets an all-time February record for the coldest high temperature for the city. The Weather Doctor

This Date in Weather History for February 1,2020

Weather History
For Saturday,February 1,2020

1893 - Thunder and lightning accompanied sleet and snow at Saint Louis MO during the evening hours, even though the temperature was just 13 degrees above zero. (The Weather Channel)

1951 - The greatest ice storm of record in the U.S. produced glaze up to four inches thick from Texas to Pennsylvania causing twenty-five deaths, 500 serious injuries, and 100 million dollars damage. Tennessee was hardest hit by the storm. Communications and utilities were interrupted for a week to ten days. (David Ludlum)

1951 - The temperature at Taylor Park Dam plunged to 60 degrees below zero, a record for the state of Colorado. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1985 - Snow, sleet and ice glazed southern Tennessee and northern sections of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. The winter storm produced up to eleven inches of sleet and ice in Lauderdale County AL, one of the worst storms of record for the state. All streets in Florence AL were closed for the first time of record. (1st-2nd) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A storm in the Pacific Northwest produced wind gusts to 100 mph at Cape Blanco OR, and up to six inches of rain in the northern coastal mountain ranges. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thirty cities in the eastern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date, including Richmond VA with a reading of 73 degrees. Thunderstorms in southern Louisiana deluged Basile with 12.34 inches of rain. Arctic cold gripped the north central U.S. Wolf Point MT reported a low of 32 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - While arctic cold continued to invade the central U.S., fifty-four cities in the south central and eastern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. Russell KS, the hot spot in the nation with a high of 84 degrees the previous day, reported a morning low of 12 above. Tioga ND reported a wind chill reading of 90 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Thunderstorms associated with an upper level weather disturbance produced severe weather across the eastern half of Texas during the late afternoon and evening. Four persons were injured at Waco TX where thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 80 mph. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 97 mph at Cotulla TX injuring two other persons. Golf ball size hail was reported at Whitney and northeast of Whitsett. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)