Weather Outside Your Window

Tuesday, October 1, 2019

Fall tornadoes could occur in atypical US areas this year

Updated Oct. 1, 2019 1:49 PM

As fall progresses, it’s not typical for the south-central United States Plains to experience an extended tornado season. Tornadoes in October and into November would be more likely to occur along the Gulf coast, but that’s not where the action could be this year.

Instead, the Plains may be ground zero in a battle of northern cold fronts and southern warm air, which “could just create a lot of havoc,” according to AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok.

“We’ve already seen one big storm in the Rockies and it looks like we may continue to see more storms this fall moving out from the Rockies,” Pastelok said. “And if the stormy and colder pattern continues to stay in the Rockies and we have all of this warming trying to come in from the southeast, there’s going to be a good temperature gradient set up in the middle of the country for a couple of severe weather events.”

The first big snowstorm of the season dropped 3 to 4 feet of snow in spots across the northern Rockies.

“In the south-central Plains, it’s only going to get colder with these air masses from the north,” Pastelok said. “The Gulf waters are warm, so you have an increasing temperature difference setting up going into the late fall. I think we’re going to have some really rough stuff there in November.”

As a result, AccuWeather has updated its Fall Tornado Outlook and raised its tornado estimate based on the impacts already seen from Hurricane Dorian, as well as what is now expected in November. AccuWeather is forecasting between 1,400 and 1,475 tornadoes for 2019, an increase of roughly 50 tornadoes.

AccuWeather’s 2019 forecast released in February accurately pinpointed the areas to be hit hardest this year, with a higher frequency of severe weather risks in the traditional Tornado Alley -- notably Oklahoma, Kansas and parts of Texas -- than they had experienced on average the previous three years.

So far this year, Texas, with 174 tornadoes, has experienced the most in the U.S., according to preliminary, unconfirmed data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Kansas is second with 127, while Oklahoma with 92 is fourth behind Mississippi, which has had 94.

NOAA’s preliminary reports show there have been 1,519 tornadoes in 2019, but that total is not a confirmed final number. The inflation-adjusted annual tornado running total – which attempts to remove overcount by multiplying the preliminary total by 0.85 – is 1,291, according to NOAA.

There were 1,124 tornadoes in 2018, and the 25-year average is 1,199 tornadoes a year, according to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center.

According to AccuWeather’s updated Fall Tornado Outlook, based on AccuWeather research, there will be roughly 40-50 tornadoes in October and approximately 65-75 in November.

The 25-year average number of U.S. tornadoes for October and November is 58 and 56, respectively, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Storm Prediction Center.

“Tornado activity could linger into early December, depending on when the storm track decides to shift a little farther,” said Pastelok.

Download the free AccuWeather app to stay aware of the latest forecast and advisories for your area. Keep checking back for updates on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

The weather may play a factor during crucial Rams, Seahawks Thursday night football matchup

By Kevin Byrne, AccuWeather staff writer

Updated Oct. 1, 2019 1:24 PM

As the NFL season enters its fifth week of play, the Thursday night football slate will shift to the Pacific Northwest as the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks clash in a divisional showdown in Seattle.

As the two NFC West foes meet at CenturyLink Field for an 8:20 p.m. EDT kickoff, there is the chance weather could impact the final result.

AccuWeather forecasters expect rain to develop in the Seattle area during the late morning and early afternoon before continuing into the evening. While fans will want to bring rain gear, a major deluge is not expected.

"It will not be a washout with a steady rain, but it will feel dreary with brief periods of rain," AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys said. "This will lead to a slippery field and increase the chances for dropped passes and turnovers for both teams."

The wet weather will bring extra scrutiny on ball security and the potential for a game-changing turnover. Rams quarterback Jared Goff has fumbled four total times and lost three of them so far in 2019. None of the Rams' games thus far have taken place in poor weather.

Seahawks running back Chris Carson has also struggled to hold onto the ball as he's lost three fumbles, prompting questions about whether he would remain Seattle's starting running back going forward.

The temperature at kickoff will be in the upper 50s; as the game progresses, temperatures will dip into the mid-50s, which is seasonably cool for this time of year in Seattle.

The AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperature will be in the lower 50s throughout the game.

Winds out of the south will be 4-8 mph and should not impact play, forecasters say.

Harrowing footage shows moment Taiwan bridge crashes onto boats below

By Mark Puleo, AccuWeather staff writer

Updated Oct. 1, 2019 2:24 PM

The 150-meter Nanfang’ao Bridge in Su’ao Township, Taiwan, collapsed on Monday morning, injuring over a dozen people. The collapse comes one day after Typhoon Mitag struck the region and just hours after a 3.8 magnitude earthquake shook the grounds in the early morning.

Previously the only steel single-arch bridge in all of Taiwan, the structure gave way around 9:30 a.m. while an oil tanker truck was crossing -- a mere seconds from safety. The bridge's main function was to carry traffic over the busy fishing port underneath. As the bridge and tanker collapsed onto boats below, the oil tanker vehicle caught on fire. According to the United Daily News (UDN), Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen visited the truck driver and other victims in the hospital on Monday night.

Wang Zhongyu, a professor of civil engineering at Central University in Taiwan, told UDN that recent photos seemed to indicate that support slings on the bridge appeared to have rusted and that strong winds from Mitag could have caused the collapse.

A collapsed bridge is seen in Nanfangao, eastern Taiwan. Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2019. A towering bridge over a bay in eastern Taiwan has collapsed sending an oil tanker truck falling onto boats in the water below.(Taiwan's National Fire Agency via AP)

According to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Eric Leister, the typhoon dealt wind gusts over 80 km/h (50 mph) and widespread rainfall with up to 300 mm (12 inches) in some local, northeast locations.

“Typhoon Mitag brought heavy rain and gusty winds to northern and eastern Taiwan from Monday into early Tuesday, local time,” Leister said.

Including the driver of the oil tanker, officials confirmed 10 total injuries while six fishermen were missing in the aftermath, trapped in the boats below. Several fishing vessels were crushed by the collapse as hundreds of rescuers rushed to operate cranes, excavators and military tugs to sort through the wreckage.

Photos from the collapse's aftermath also show the stained water from the tanker's crash.

Most recently reinforced in 2018, the bridge was popularly visited by locals who referred to it as "lover's bridge."

1/6

An injured people lies on stretcher at the site of a collapsed bridge in Nanfangao, eastern Taiwan. Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2019. A towering bridge over a bay in eastern Taiwan has collapsed sending an oil tanker truck falling onto boats in the water below. A disaster relief official said the collapse set off a fire and at least 10 people have been hurt. (Taiwan's Coast Guard via AP)

Disaster officials would not say to reporters if the typhoon or earthquake were to blame for the collapse. In response, Ing-wen ordered extra security checks to be made on all old bridges in Taiwan.

“[We] must find out the cause of the incident and should not evade responsibility,” she said.

“Saving life is the priority,” Taiwan Premier Su Tseng-chang said on Facebook. “I will ask related authorities to make all efforts for the rescue.”

Weather whiplash in Northeast will be 'quite a shock’

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Updated Oct. 1, 2019 2:53 PM

A change in the weather pattern will soon lead to progressively more vigorous bursts of cool air, while warm episodes will be less frequent and not as extreme as recent weeks in the northeastern United States.

The pattern will end up being more typical of mid-October, rather than the middle of August and can even lead to a touch of snow in the coldest spots.

A large area of high pressure at most levels of the atmosphere - a culprit behind the enduring summer weather - has extended from the western Atlantic to the south-central U.S. and been very dominant during much of September.

The summery weather will be entrenched as record highs are challenged in New York City and up and down the Eastern Seaboard during the middle of this week.

This high pressure area will get chopped down substantially late this week, rendering record-challenging highs a thing of the past from the Ohio Valley to the mid-Atlantic.

Taking its place will be a jet stream pattern that is likely to have a west-to-east configuration with occasional southward wiggles across the central and northern states.

One of these southward dips will allow much cooler air to push much farther south than recent weeks when only the northern tier has been enveloped in crisp fall weather.

A brief southward push will commence across parts of New England and New York state on Wednesday.

However, the main southward surge will have to wait until a fast-moving storm moves by on Thursday. That storm system is forecast to bring areas of rain near and north of its track and spotty thunderstorms farther south.

As that storm begins to pull away late Thursday night and Friday morning, rain may mix with or change to a bit of snow over the mountains of northern New York state and New England.

The burst of cool air will be "quite a shock," according to Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather's lead long-range forecaster. When comparing highs from the peak of the heat this week to the late-night and early-morning lows this weekend, some locations will experience a 50-degree-Fahrenheit swing.

Throw in some wind and cloudy intervals, and AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures will plunge 50-60 degrees.

It should feel like football weather for Friday night and Saturday games. Fans that donned short sleeves earlier this week should consider trading with long sleeves, long pants, jackets and sweatshirts.

Instead of temperatures hovering between 10-20 degrees above average, temperatures are likely to dip to 5-15 degrees below average starting this weekend.

However, quite the contrast will be set up across the region. Morning low temperature will range from a frosty middle 20s over northern New York state to near 60 in southeastern Virginia this weekend. Highs will range from the middle to upper 40s over the northern tier to the lower 70s in southeastern Virginia.

While this will not be the first frost or freeze for the colder northern tier locations, there will be the risk of frost farther south than has occurred thus far this season.

Frost could grip parts of West Virginia and western Maryland to western and northern Pennsylvania, much of western and central New York state, part of northwestern New Jersey and central and northern New England during Friday night.

The frost may help to knock down the area bug population. The colder weather will be welcome news as public health officials throughout the country have been cautioning against the rise of a rare mosquito-borne virus known as East Equine Encephalitis (EEE) that has produced an abnormally high number of deaths this year.

The upcoming chilly spell could also help allergy sufferers by helping to reduce pollen levels.

AccuWeather's Reed Timmer captured peak fall colors rollerblading from Copper Mountain to Breckenridge, Colorado, on Sept. 29. The wind was cranking with a strong trough dominating the western United States this past Sunday.

Temperatures may climb a bit on Sunday, compared to Friday and Saturday.

This temperature rebound will be ahead of another dose of cool air that is forecast to gather over central Canada for next week.

That push of cool air may meet some resistance from the Appalachians to the Atlantic coast and may trigger a dose of soaking rain from late this weekend to early next week that could last a full day or a bit more in some locations.

Only if a tropical system, which has not yet formed, interacts and moves northward might more rain fall later next week.

Download the free AccuWeather app to receive the latest forecast and frost-related advisories. Keep checking back for updates on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

In the wake of a massive September snowstorm, is the cold here to stay across the Northwest?

By Brandon Buckingham, AccuWeather Meteorologist

Updated Oct. 1, 2019 2:29 PM

A historic snowstorm that dumped feet of snow across the Northwest and brought record-breaking low temperatures has many people wondering if this is a sign of things to come this winter.

A Montana Department of Transportation webcam image shows a road still partially covered in snow in Pendroy on Monday, Sept. 30.

"During the winter of 2018-2019, the Northwest and northern Rockies were bombarded with an onslaught of storm systems that brought cold and snowy conditions to the region. In some areas of the West, record snowfall amounts were observed last winter." AccuWeather Meteorologist Kyle Elliot stated.

After coming off a brutally cold 2018 winter season across the region, 2019 seems to be picking up right where the previous winter left off. Great Falls, Montana, along with other cities in the area are coming off one of the coldest and snowiest winter seasons on record.

The average snowfall in September in Great Falls is around 1.2 inches and this storm dropped a whopping 19.3 inches of snow. The city of Browning, Montana, nearly reached their average annual snowfall of 59.5 inches by accumulating 48 inches of snow from this storm.

In the wake of the departed system, a persistent dip in the jet stream will continue to keep temperatures well below average through the week across much of the Northwest. To go along with the persistent dip in the jet stream, troughs of low pressure coming in from the Pacific Ocean will also act to keep unsettled weather in the forecast for some through this week.

On Tuesday morning, Oct. 1, the mercury reached 9 degrees Fahrenheit at the Great Falls International Airport in Montana. That breaks the location's previous record low for the date of 22 F set back in 1959.

The next trough of low pressure to bring valley rain and high-elevation snow will begin to impact the Pacific Northwest on Thursday. As the system tracks inland through the day and into Friday, snow levels could drop back down to around 6,000 feet, possibly bringing hazards to some area passes. This storm system will be nowhere near as powerful as the recently departed system.

Early season snowfall and cooler air across the high elevations of the Northwest is bringing high hopes to area ski resorts, hoping to continue where they left off from last year's profitable season. Some ski resorts across the Sierra, Cascades and Rockies were able to stay open much later than average this spring and summer, courtesy of the persistent cold weather and deep snowpack.

For those that are not excited for the ski season, or snow in general, the winterlike conditions are not here to stay for the season quite yet. A shift in the jet stream pattern late this weekend and into next week will bring more seasonable conditions back to much of the Northwest.

Looking ahead to the official winter season, AccuWeather expects above-normal temperatures and fewer-than-normal storm systems across the northwestern United States.

"With sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, Gulf of Alaska and Arctic Ocean forecast to remain well above normal, there could be a tendency for persistent high pressure to bulge northward across the West. This would lead to abnormally dry and mild weather and a below-normal snowpack in the Cascades and Sierra Nevada," Elliot added.

For those that do not like the cold and snowy conditions, this may be good news regarding the upcoming winter season.

However, any season with below-average snowfall across the Northwest will always bring up the issue of water shortages in the following spring and summer.

Download the free AccuWeather app to stay aware of the latest forecast and winter storm warnings and advisories for your area. Keep checking back for updates on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

This Date in Weather History for October 1,2019

Weather History
For Tuesday,October 1,2019

1752 - The second severe hurricane in two weeks hit the Carolinas. The Onslow County Courthouse was destroyed along with all its records, and Beacon Island disappeared. (David Ludlum)

1893 - The second great hurricane of the 1893 season hit the Mississippi Delta Region drowning more than 1000 persons. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A blast of cold arctic air hit the north central U.S. An afternoon thunderstorm slickened the streets of Duluth MN with hail and snow, and later in the afternoon, strong northerly winds reached 70 mph. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the Pacific northwest. Afternoon highs of 90 degrees at Olympia WA, 92 degrees at Portland OR, and 89 degrees at Seattle WA, were records for the month of October. For Seattle WA it marked the twenty- first daily record high for the year, a record total in itself. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather across central Oklahoma and the eastern half of Texas. Thunderstorms in Texas produced softball size hail northwest of Nocona, and baseball size hail at Troy and Park Springs. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the southeastern U.S. through the daytime and evening hours. Severe thunderstorms spawned eleven tornadoes, with seven of those tornadoes in Georgia. A tornado southwest of Moultrie, GA, killed two persons and injured a dozen others. Tornadoes also injured one person north of Graceville, FL, and two persons at Bartow, GA. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)