The first widespread snowstorm of the season is set to excite winter enthusiasts but can cause some travel problems from the Rocky Mountains to the northern High Plains in the upcoming days.
After soaking the Pacific Northwest to end Friday, the storm is expected to track slowly through the Rockies and onto the High Plains this weekend and into Monday.
Small-scale storms have brought snow to parts of these regions already this season, including as recently as Friday. This storm, however, is expected to bring the most far-reaching swath of snow since last winter.
Snow will initially fall in the mountains early in the weekend before spreading to the lower elevations of the northern Rockies and northern High Plains Sunday into Monday.
Billings, Montana; Gillette, Casper and Cheyenne, Wyoming; Rapid City, South Dakota; and Dickinson and Williston, North Dakota; are among the cities expected to receive some snow during the upcoming days.
Average highs in each of these cities are in the lower 60s this time of year.
A little snow may just graze Billings as snow can leave a couple to several inches in the lower elevations from Casper to Dickinson Sunday into Monday morning.
"Due to warmth stored up in paved surfaces, the snow may initially melt on roads and sidewalks," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson. "However, travel conditions may deteriorate if the snow can fall hard enough to overcome that melting."
Motorists are being advised that stretches of interstates 25, 90 and 94 can become slushy and slippery. Treacherous travel may also unfold in the passes along I-70 and I-80 through the central Rockies.
In the mountains, Anderson anticipates an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 24 inches this weekend and into early next week.
"This is the first major storm of the season so people may not take as many precautions as they would during the winter," Anderson said. "People need to slow down and leave space between other drivers."
The potential for slick travel and disruptions to daily routines may continue to plague areas from Wyoming to the western Dakotas beyond Monday morning.
If the storm takes a more northerly track, snow may persist over these areas through Monday and into Tuesday.
Another scenario is that this corridor dries out for a time early next week as the mountain snow focuses on the southern Rockies. Snow may then spread back over the region at midweek.
"The wet nature of the snow coming to the region can weigh down some trees in the lower elevations and lead to sporadic power outages," Anderson said.
Issues can be more widespread if the scenario in which the snow persists into early next week rather than a break between snow events pans out.
In the latter solution (the northern Rockies and High Plains drying out), snow may fall in Denver to start the new week if enough cold air plunges southward.
The storm can also kick up gusty winds across Nevada and the Desert Southwest for the second half of this weekend as rain returns to Arizona. Any heavier rain can trigger new flash flooding with the ground still saturated after Rosa's soaking.
The upcoming week as a whole will not feel like typical October weather, even after the snow stops falling in the northern Rockies and northern High Plains. Highs will be held to the 30s and lower 40s in these areas on most days.
More snow may enter back into the picture over a part of the Rockies later next week. The location of this snow will be determined by how far south another shot of colder air presses and interacts with moisture from Sergio.
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Tuesday’s severe weather outbreak in the Northeast produced an unusually high number of tornadoes in Pennsylvania.
A total of 13 tornadoes have been confirmed across Pennsylvania as more storm surveys were completed this week. At least 18 tornadoes have been reported in the Northeast overall in the region, according to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC).
The intensity of the tornadoes ranged in scale from EF0 to EF2. Some of the worst damage was reported in the northwestern part of the Pennsylvania where an EF2 tornado caused significant damage to a nursing home and duplex in Conneautville.
Despite the extensive outbreak, no fatalities were reported, although there was at least one injury.
(Photo/National Weather Service)
Pennsylvania’s tornado outbreak is even more surprising when compared to Oklahoma, a state located in Tornado Alley. There have been 13 reported tornadoes in Oklahoma as of Oct. 4, far below the yearly average of 56. Sixty-two tornadoes were confirmed in the state in 2017.
Of course, there are several months left in 2018 and fall does bring a secondary peak of severe weather, so the threat for severe thunderstorms that can produce tornadoes has not completely diminished.
Overall, Pennsylvania has 17 tornado reports thus far in 2018. There were 26 confirmed tornadoes in 2017 statewide. A yearly average for the state is 15, according to the SPC.
There were several atmospheric factors at play for the severe thunderstorms that unfolded in Pennsylvania, according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Brett Rossio.
Very strong winds were present high above the ground due to to a strong piece of energy in the atmosphere. These high winds are a necessary ingredient for tornado development, Rossio stated. The second ingredient was a very unstable air mass that developed ahead of this wave of energy. Temperatures surged well into the 70s ahead of this disturbance while temperatures high above the ground become rather cold, he explained.
"When this occurs, the air mass becomes highly unstable and severe thunderstorms developed. Many of these storms began rotating due to very strong winds aloft, as well as the variation in wind direction between the surface and upper levels of the atmosphere," Rossio said.
In terms of the lack of activity for tornadoes this year in the Sooner State, a big factor was the chilly spring that the state experienced.
"Climatologically, April and May are the most active months for tornadoes," Rossio said. Temperatures started out far too low with temperatures generally running 2-4 degrees below normal across much of Oklahoma during those months."
Another factor that resulted in a dip in tornado numbers this year is the overall storm track.
"The far cooler air was a result of a persistent Canadian storm track driving chilly Canadian clipper-type systems into the Plains. The ideal storm track is a more westerly-southwesterly storm track that can lift a more subtropical air mass northward from the Gulf of Mexico," Rossio said.
The first confirmed tornado in Oklahoma did not occur until May 1. Even though the state has seen fewer tornadoes, a few still have produced damaging impacts,including an EF1 near Chouteau, Oklahoma, in August.
The record for lowest number of tornadoes in Oklahoma in a year is 16 back in 2014.
Several storm systems have brought unsettled weather to parts of the Mediterranean in recent weeks, and that pattern will continue into the new week.
One storm is currently bringing rain and thunderstorms to Italy, including Sicily and Sardinia, as well as Corsica.
Flash flooding has been reported in southern Italy, causing significant travel disruptions and also damaging businesses and homes. The flooding also forced the closure of schools in Taranto.
Two deaths have been associated with the flooding thus far as a mother and her child were found in floodwaters on Friday morning, according to ANSA. Another child remains missing.
Rainfall amounts of 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) have fallen across much of southern Italy since Thursday.
Additional rainfall of 25-75 mm (1-3 inches) is expected across the region through Sunday, causing flooding and transportation problems. In addition to the risk for flooding rainfall, thunderstorms can produce damaging hail.
Just as this storm departs on Sunday, a new storm will move from France into the western Mediterranean.
This new storm will target southern France, northwestern Italy and Corsica with heavy rainfall and thunderstorms on Sunday.
The storm will then spin over the Mediterranean Sea to the south of France early in the week producing daily showers and thunderstorms across the region.
Locations such as Barcelona, Spain; Montpellier and Marseille, France; and Genoa and Milan, Italy; will be at risk for flooding and strong thunderstorms during this time.
The storm will slowly move south and east from Wednesday into Friday, spreading the risk for flooding across the rest of Italy.
Public schools in both North and South Carolina are still dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane Florence as they are trying to get students and teachers back into the classroom to start making up for lost time.
“Just letting them know that the schools [are] going to reopen is a challenge,” Drew Elliott, director of communications and information division at the North Carolina Department of Public Instruction told AccuWeather. “You have displaced people who are not checking their email very often. We have principals just calling every family in their school to try to figure out where they are and when they could be back to even knowing how many kids that they could have when they reopen.”
Amid mandatory evacuations in some parts of the state, people left their homes not knowing if they would return. Schools closed not knowing if students would be there when they reopened.
If and when students do return to their schools, the questions to be answered at the local and state levels is how to supplement lost time in the classroom, especially for schools that have been closed for nearly a month, so that students do not miss out on important material.
“It is a balance. You don't want to penalize schools and students for something they obviously couldn’t control in terms of missed school days,” said Elliot. “We have already seen a move to give relief to schools and districts from the North Carolina laws that mandate the [185] days and hours of instruction. There is no way that they can make it up."
North Carolina had the greatest impacts to their schools, having lost some buildings completely. Also, due to the power being off for so long and the water damage in buildings, other schools have had to blow mildew out with fans. Most of the damage to schools the state has experienced, however, is repairable wind damage.
Two schools in Jones County, Jones Middle School and Trenton Elementary School, have announced that they will remain closed for the rest of the year, according to WNCT 9.
Talks continue on how to repair damages and return to a normal school routines on both the local and state level. Many state leaders are leading those conversations and taking action. They are coming together, putting differences aside, and leading an in-state historic bipartisan relief effort to aid public schools as they reopen and face challenges.
Girls from The Boys and Girls Homes of North Carolina near Wilmington, N.C., wait to play games to pass the time as they ride out the aftermath flooding of hurricane Florence at the YMCA on Monday, Sept. 17, 2018, in Black Mountain, N.C. (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)
“A group of current and former state leaders came together at a press conference [Sept. 24] to announce what we’re calling FAST NC, Florence Aid to Students and Teachers, and it is a fund-raising campaign, with a steering committee of the current superintendent and current state board chair and several former superintendents and board chairs, to address needs that aren’t addressed by federal or state aide because we know that need is going to still be out there,” said Elliot.
FAST NC donations will be taken through the existing North Carolina Education Fund and the steering committee will make decisions based on the requests and needs of the schools.
Elliot continues to get calls and inquiries from people all across the country on how they can help North Carolina’s students and teachers. Schools as far away as California are pitching in, whether it be fund-raising drives or directly donating to FAST NC.
Still, Elliot said the state’s focus is on the 1.2 million students that had missed some school and those who still remain out, making sure that they are not neglected educationally and that their personal needs are the main priority during this time.
“School’s are such an anchor in the community that can really provide that sense of permanence when everything else has been temporary and has been disrupted or dislodged,” said Elliot. “The school’s can be that place, that hasn't changed.”
While South Carolina is currently in its own recovery process, residents have been through this situation several times before. The state has had four major storms in recent years, leaving them all too familiar with major storm damage.
About 500,000 students were out of school for at least three days due to Florence, according to Ryan Brown, chief communications officer for the South Carolina Department of Education.
“The schools are very prepared,” said Brown. “Last year we got federal funding to help the students in the wake of some natural disasters. Our first priority will be to get the students in a safe environment and get them back into the schools and supporting them and their families as we can.”
South Carolina schools may not have experienced as much wind damage as schools in North Carolina, but the continuation of flooding during and in the days following the hurricane posed the biggest threat to school buildings.
“It is very important for the students to get back in the classroom, they are missing a lot of instructional time but we have to weigh that with the facility and the need for safety,” said Brown.
Major highways and local roads remained closed for days and weeks due to flooding. Downed trees, telephone poles and damaged roads also restricted travel. Safe transportation of students and faculty, in many parts of the state, was not possible.
(AP Photo/David Goldman)
Kenny Babb looks out over the water on his flooded property as the Little River continues to rise in the aftermath of Hurricane Florence in Linden, N.C., Tuesday, Sept. 18, 2018.
(Photo/North Carolina Department of Transportation)
A stranded truck is nearly completely submerged in floodwaters in Brunswick County, North Carolina
(Photo/North Carolina Department of Transportation)
Interstate 95 near Lumberton, North Carolina, remained closed on Tuesday, Sept. 18.
(Photo/North Carolina Emergency Management)
Successful search & rescue missions were conducted by the Cary, NC, swift water rescue team in Harnett County.
(AP Photo/David Goldman)
Kenny Babb walks down a staircase into the water on his flooded property as the Little River continues to rise in the aftermath of Hurricane Florence in Linden, N.C., Tuesday, Sept. 18, 2018.
(AP Photo/David Goldman)
Dianna Wood, embraces her husband Lynn, as they look out over their flooded property in Linden, N.C., Tuesday, Sept. 18, 2018.
(AP Photo/Sean Rayford)
People use a road as a boat ramp after Hurricane Florence struck the Carolinas Monday, Sept. 17, 2018, in Conway, S.C.
(AP Photo/Gerry Broome, File)
A man tries to get his dog out of a flooded neighborhood in Lumberton, N.C., Monday, Sept. 17, 2018, in the aftermath of Hurricane Florence.
(AP Photo/Gerry Broome)
The Lumber River overflows onto a stretch Interstate 95 in Lumberton, N.C., Tuesday, Sept. 18, 2018, following flooding from Hurricane Florence.
(AP Photo/Meg Kinnard)
South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster, left, and U.S. Army Lt. Col. John McElveen look on as rescues take place inChesterfield County, South Carolina on Monday, Sept. 17, 2018.
(Photo/Asheville Fire Department)
Aerial imagery captures the extent of flooding around the Asheville, North Carolina, area.
(AP Photo/David Goldman)
Cars sit abandoned on a flooded street in the aftermath of Hurricane Florence in Lillington, N.C., Tuesday, Sept. 18, 2018.
(AP Photo/Meg Kinnard
This Monday, Sept. 17, 2018 photo shows rising flood waters in the Pee Dee area in Marion County, S.C.
(Photo/North Carolina Department of Transportation)
This drone image shows Interstate 40 at Pender County, North Carolina, completely submerged.
(Reuters photo/Eduardo Munoz)
Sheds sit in flooded waters due to Hurricane Florence in Kinston, North Carolina, U.S., September 19, 2018.
David Goldman
The home of Kenny Babb is surrounded by water as he retrieves a paddle that floated away in Linden, N.C., Tuesday, Sept. 18, 2018.
(AP Photo/Sean Rayford)
Floodwaters inundate a church after Hurricane Florence struck the Carolinas Monday, Sept. 17, 2018, in Conway, S.C.
(AP Photo/David Goldman)
David Darden Jr., left, stands outside his mother's home with his wife Pam as they evacuate her in the aftermath of Florence in Spring Lake, N.C., Monday, Sept. 17, 2018.
(AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
A resident stands on her pier looking out onto the rising Waccamaw River in Conway, S.C., Monday, Sept. 17, 2018.
(AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
A house is surrounded by floodwaters from Hurricane Florence in Lumberton, N.C., Monday, Sept. 17, 2018.
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Some of the states students have missed weeks of class instruction, leaving the state and local districts with the same situation North Carolina faces in determining how to make up for the lost class time.
Seeing effects of major storms before, South Carolina has had the opportunity to brainstorm efforts that may help avoid missing days or weeks of instructional time through online learning. Although it remains the beginning phases, Brown says that this alternative to learning could be possible while schools are out of session, if the students and teachers can access Wi-Fi.
“We have five districts right now that are in an online learning pilot program that students and schools can utilize when they are out of school,” said Brown. “That might be a resource we can spread throughout the state.”
However, missed class time is not the only anticipated result of this hurricane.
Brown said that the state is predicting many students and families are coming in from North Carolina. Some families found refuge in South Carolina during the storm and may stay, while other families could be coming to find a new place to settle now that they may not have a home to go back to.
The McKinney-Vento Homeless Assistance Act, a federal homeless statute, mandates that children of homeless people or homeless due to an emergency situation must be afforded the same opportunity to public education as district and state residents, even without proper documentation.
“They are our neighbors and we view them as such,” said Brown. “There are a large number of people that have been directly impacted in North Carolina and we are going to welcome them into our state if that is the case. They can certainly come down south and come to us.”
