Weather Outside Your Window: September 2023

Thursday, September 28, 2023

Hurricane Ian May Have Changed Florida Towns Forever

Jan Wesner Childs

Published: September 28, 2023

The giant double-bin debris trucks no longer rumble through the streets of Fort Myers Beach every day.

Instead, chainsaws buzz and pile drivers bang.

"Every day you hear something new, you hear new sounds and it just means that there's progress happening," Mayor Dan Allers said Tuesday.

Albeit slowly.

(MORE: Hurricane Ian - Lessons Learned One Year Later)

Hurricane Ian roared ashore a year ago in Southwest Florida with winds gusting up to 140 mph and storm surge that rose as high as 15 feet. The Lee County barrier island communities of Fort Myers Beach and Sanibel were devastated.

“Most people lost everything that they've accumulated their entire lives in a matter of hours,” Allers said.

The state’s official death toll counts 151 fatalities connected to the storm. Nearly half happened in Lee County.

“This week, it’s a tough week for a lot of people,” Sanibel city councilwoman Holly Smith said Wednesday.

Residents Struggle To Rebuild

The broken hull of the causeway connecting Sanibel to the mainland was one of the most enduring images of Ian's wrath. Now, contractors and construction vehicles create morning traffic jams on the repaired bridge.

An aerial picture taken on September 30, 2022 shows the collapsed Sanibel Causeway in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian in Sanibel, Florida.

Smith was mayor when Ian hit. She and her husband and two dogs camped out in their heavily damaged home with no electricity for a time after the storm. Rebuilding on it started seven weeks ago.

Allers recently moved back into his repaired home after living in a trailer in his front yard for most of the past year.

But for others, that day may never come. Smith estimates that only about 1,000 of Sanibel’s 6,700 year-round residents are currently living there.

Many, she said, are fighting with their insurance companies or they weren’t insured for enough money to cover the cost of rebuilding. Experts say it’s the latest sign of trouble in Florida’s beleaguered insurance industry.

(MORE: Why Aren't All Beach Houses Built On Stilts?)

Homes built in the 1960s and 70s when much of coastal Florida was developed cost much more to rebuild after a storm. That’s because of FEMA rebuilding rules and stricter building codes intended to make homes more resilient, the cost of labor and supplies and other issues.

“Some had put their entire life savings to live here on the island and they can no longer live here so they have to sell their property and move on,” Allers said.

An aerial view of Fort Myers Beach, Florida, on Sept. 23, 2023.

Empty Lots, Damaged Homes For Sale

There are 131 empty lots listed for sale in Fort Myers Beach and 53 in Sanibel. Many show barren sand or empty slabs where a building once stood. At the low end is the asking price of $80,000 for a 4,835-square-foot lot in a manufactured home community called Bayside Estates that was decimated by the storm.

At the upper end is a $15 million commercial property that used to be home to a general store destroyed by the storm.

The least expensive single family home on the market in Fort Myers Beach is pending sale at a list price of $635,000, according to realtor.com. It’s got two bedrooms, one and a half bathrooms and visible hurricane damage.

The list price is $165,000 more than the home previously sold for in 2019, according to Lee County property records.

(MORE: Here's How A Warmer World Could Affect Hurricane Season)

Middle class families and those on fixed incomes have been getting priced out of towns like these for decades. But Smith worries Ian could change the face of her community forever.

“That's a real concern for our city moving forward because people have this thought that Sanibel is made up of a very elite buyer resident. But really, that's a small fraction of what we are here on this island,” she said.

“Many of our owners have been generational owners, elderly, young families coming in that could afford it a few years ago.”

It’s a problem expected to get worse as weather becomes more extreme and brings more catastrophic damage.

“That's going to be part of a broader demographic shift, particularly for retirees and people on fixed income, that simply won't be able to entertain recovery from these shocks time and time again and they simply won't be able to afford it,” Jesse Keenan, a Tulane University expert in real estate and climate, said in a previous interview.

(MORE: Climate Change Generating Strong Hurricanes Earlier, Study Shows)

The number of billion-dollar disasters has risen steadily in the U.S. since the 1980s, and this year is on track to break a record.

Damaged homes and debris are shown in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian, Thursday, Sept. 29, 2022, in Fort Myers, Fla.

Crossing Their Fingers For This Hurricane Season

In August, Hurricane Idalia skirted up Florida’s Gulf Coast past Lee County on its way to landfall further north.

“I can tell you the PTSD that was felt around this island,” Smith said.

Idalia brought some high tides to the area, but no major damage.

“We are getting through our hurricane season and we are just crossing our fingers that we are spared for a very long time,” Smith said. “Because we have so far to go in our recovery and if we are hit by a hurricane, minimal or major, it's going to have a very severe emotional toll on us.”

Weather.com reporter Jan Childs covers breaking news and features related to weather, space, climate change, the environment and everything in between.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

Canada Wildfire Smoke Crossed The Atlantic Ocean...In September

Jonathan Erdman

Published: September 27, 2023

Canadian wildfire smoke has been pulled across the Atlantic Ocean as far east as Ireland, a strange sight for late September during the country's most prolific season of wildfires on record.

Satellite imagery Wednesday seemed to be fairly typical for September over the Atlantic Ocean. A pair of storms - one of which was named Storm Agnes by the U.K. Met Office - were lined up headed for Ireland and the U.K.

However, as the image below showed, there were also plumes of smoke from Canada across the ocean toward Ireland. The smoke was particularly dense over Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Newfoundland, even parts of Downeast Maine.

Visible satellite image taken at 12 p.m. EDT on Sept. 27, 2023, showed the plumes of lofted wildfire smoke (shown in brown) extending from the Canadian Maritimes across the Atlantic Ocean headed for Ireland.

How the smoke got there: A rash of Canadian wildfires starting in late spring continues to burn here in early fall. According to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre, almost 900 active fires were burning across the country as of Sept. 27. Over half of those were reported as "out of control".

In this case, the upper-level winds tapped this smoke from western and central Canada and pushed it into Atlantic Canada. Then, the jet stream took it from there, whipping plumes of lofted smoke across the Atlantic Ocean, eventually getting intertwined with a couple of Atlantic storms before arriving in Ireland. You can see this in a model plot below.

It's unlikely any of that smoke reached the ground in Ireland or the U.K., and may have been difficult to discern given they were being hit by Storm Agnes winds.

This forecast model plot shows lofted smoke (in various shades of gray) and upper-level winds transporting the smoke across the Atlantic Ocean from Sept. 26-27, 2023.

How bizarre this is for this time of year: Over the past several months, we've seen periods when more dense wildfire smoke from Canada was pulled into the U.S., particularly in June.

What's strange about this is it's happening near the end of September, when thoughts of wildfire smoke from Canada usually begin to give way toward more potent cold fronts with crisp, clean fall air.

And that's a function of how extreme Canada's wildfires have been.

Fires have burned roughly 69,000 square miles of land in Canada so far this year, an area roughly the size of Missouri and by far the most on record since the early 1980s.

As research scientist Yan Boulanger noted, about one-third of an average full fire season of land in Canada burned in just one day last Saturday.

It remains to be seen how late into fall we'll continue to see wildfire smoke pulled across the Atlantic Ocean or, at times, into parts of the U.S.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been an incurable weather geek since a tornado narrowly missed his childhood home in Wisconsin at age 7. Follow him on X/Twitter, Facebook and Threads.

Colorado Hailstone Confirmed As New State Record

Jonathan Erdman

Published: September 27, 2023

A massive hailstone from a supercell thunderstorm in eastern Colorado last August was confirmed as a new state record, the latest example in a prolific summer for giant hail in the United States.

The hailstone was found by stormchaser Dan Fitts outside the town of Kirk, near the border with Kansas about 125 miles east of Denver on August 8.

Fitts used a caliper to measure the hailstone to be 5.25 inches in length. That's larger than the diameter of a softball, grapefruit or DVD.

Fitts then stored the hailstone in a freezer and delivered it to the nearest National Weather Service forecast office in Goodland, Kansas.

This record has an asterisk, however. When all-time state records are potentially topped, an ad hoc committee of climatologists and meteorologists meets to ensure measurements were done properly. If so, that record is officially accepted.

In this case, Colorado's state climatologist - Russ Schumacher - and meteorologists from the National Weather Service and hail experts from the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety examined the hailstone six days later.

What they discovered was the hailstone had melted somewhat from when it was first discovered by Fitts to when it first arrived at NWS-Goodland that evening. Measurements for diameter, weight and circumference all came in lower than the state record stone from 2019.

However, the committee took Fitts initial diameter measurement into account given it was of high quality and made immediately after the stone was found.

In their final report issued Sept. 19, the committee concluded a new state record hailstone diameter was set, but the 2019 hailstone still holds the state record for circumference and weight.

(MORE: America's 'Hail Alley')

As above, the hailstone recovered by Dan Fitts in eastern Colorado on Aug. 8, 2023, with an overlay of a model of the state's previous largest diameter hailstone from Aug. 2019 in yellow.

An outbreak the day before was also a huge hail generator. During a severe weather outbreak on August 7, hail up to 4.75 inches in diameter in Caroline County, Virginia, was the state's largest in 55 years and nearly matched their unofficial state record.

A 4-inch-diameter hailstone was also found near Clear Spring, Maryland.

In all, there were just over a dozen reports of hail larger than golf balls in Maryland and Virginia during the outbreak, a bizarre occurrence for early August in the mid-Atlantic states.

(MORE: The Underrated Danger Of Hail)

Hurricane Ian: Lessons Learned One Year Later

Jonathan Erdman and Jan Wesner Childs

Published: September 27, 2023

Hurricane Ian dealt a devastating blow to southwest and central Florida in late September 2022.

The storm was one of America's deadliest hurricanes since 1980. It was also America's third costliest hurricane on record ($115 billion estimated damage) and the costliest in Florida history.

Here are some key takeaways - and things we’ll never forget - about this historic hurricane.

Only three days before landfall, Ian was a tropical storm. Only three days before its catastrophic Category 4 landfall, Ian was a tropical storm in the southern Caribbean Sea.

That put the storm in alarming company. The strongest hurricanes to hit the U.S. with winds of 150 mph or stronger in the last century were all still tropical storms three days before landfall, as noted by former National Hurricane Center director Ken Graham.

Among these notorious hurricanes were all four Category 5 mainland U.S. landfalls: Michael (2018), Andrew (1992), Camille (1969) and the Labor Day Hurricane (1935).

This is one reason why it's important to have your hurricane plan ready to go before a storm threatens.

Track of Hurricane Ian in 2022, and other hurricanes that made 150-plus mph mainland U.S. landfalls over the past 100 years. Each of those 9 hurricanes were tropical storms just three days prior to landfall.

Hurricane forecasts can and do change. In Ian's case, initial track forecasts targeted southwest Florida. But computer forecast guidance shifted north toward Florida's Big Bend, then trended back south, finally curling south from Tampa Bay toward southwest Florida.

That can happen when there's uncertainty in the storm's steering winds, which can make a big difference in where it ultimately goes.

When a hurricane like Ian is moving roughly parallel to a heavily populated coast, that means the difference can be huge between some rain, wind and a blowout tide, like what happened in Tampa Bay, and the devastating one-two punch of surge and eyewall winds that destroyed Fort Myers Beach and nearby areas.

Check often for potential forecast changes during the duration of a tropical storm or hurricane threat.

You should evacuate when ordered to do so. Ian's storm surge reached 10 to 15 feet above ground in Fort Myers Beach and Estero Island and claimed 41 lives, according to the National Hurricane Center's final report.

The state of Florida’s final death toll includes several people who died because of medical needs or other reasons that were exacerbated by not evacuating.

Water marks were found on the second floors of some buildings. One couple had to cut a hole in the ceiling of their business to escape the floodwater. Time-lapse video noted in the NHC report showed a home that "floated off its foundation with large waves crashing over it."

If you have nowhere else to go or can't evacuate, local officials can help. Many counties and states, including Florida, have a special needs registry for people who would need assistance evacuating, during a power outage or in other emergencies.

Damaged homes and debris are shown in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian, Thursday, Sept. 29, 2022, in Fort Myers Beach, Fla.

Every hurricane is different. Despite making its Florida landfall in exactly the same location (near Cayo Costa, Florida) and with the same peak wind speed (150 mph) as 2004's Hurricane Charley, Ian was a much different storm in several key respects.

Ian was much larger than tiny Charley. That led to a much higher storm surge in Ian (up to 15 feet) than Charley (up to 7 feet). Ian also moved much slower than the buzzsaw that was Charley. That prolonged the impacts in Florida and produced much heavier rain totals in Ian.

A hurricane with a similar track, intensity or landfall forecast to a previous hurricane may not necessarily yield the same impacts.

Hurricanes don't stop at the coast. Ian produced wind gusts over 70 mph across central and northeast Florida. But perhaps the most notable inland impact was the epic rainfall flooding.

Ian wrung out up to 27 inches of rain over a strip of the Florida Peninsula. That triggered record flooding that lasted for weeks along stretches of waterways including the Peace and St. Johns rivers.

Ian also smashed Orlando's 24-hour rainfall record (12.49 inches), leading to "unprecedented flooding" in Osceola County.

The state’s death count lists fatalities connected to Ian in 19 different counties, from Monroe in the Florida Keys to Putnam 350 miles north.

It was yet another close call for Tampa-St. Petersburg. The forecast path of Ian, for a time, was centered near the Tampa-St. Petersburg metro area before it made its final curl south toward Fort Myers Beach.

Ian did produce wind gusts up to 77 mph in the Tampa Bay area. But, because of its track well south, it pushed water out of the bay instead of piling it in, as also happened five years earlier in Hurricane Irma.

It was just the latest near miss for an area that is extremely vulnerable to surge from a major hurricane.

On Oct. 25, 1921, a Category 3 hurricane made landfall near Tarpon Springs, Florida, producing storm surge of up to 11 feet in Tampa Bay, which caused extensive damage. At the time, the metro area had a population of less than 150,000. Today, that population is estimated at 3.3 million.

The water is seen receded from Hillsborough Bay in Tampa, Fla., in what is considered a “blowout tide” on Wednesday, Sept. 28, 2022, as Hurricane Ian approaches.

Florida Agricultural Losses From Idalia Estimated To Top $78 Million

Jan Wesner Childs

Published: September 26, 2023

Hurricane Idalia left Florida farmers with losses between $78 million and $371 million, according to preliminary estimates from the University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences.

That figure doesn’t include damage to farm buildings, equipment and other agricultural infrastructure, or losses to timber, a major industry in areas hit by the storm

Idalia made landfall on August 30 in a rural section of north Florida.

“Idalia took a track straight through the Florida Big Bend into southern Georgia and the coastal plain,” weather.com digital meteorologist Jonathan Belles said. “This took Idalia through pecan, peanuts and cotton country.”

Wind gusts up to 85 mph were reported after landfall along with heavy rainfall. That could hamper regrowth of crops for years to come, Belles said.

(MORE: Idalia Ties As Florida Big Bend’s Record Strongest Hurricane)

The storm’s path covered about 5,000 square miles of agricultural land in Florida, according to the UF report. That included grazing areas as well as operations like poultry and dairy farms and nurseries.

“The commodity groups that were most affected in terms of acreage by hurricane conditions were animals and animal products,” Christa Court, director of the UF/IFAS Economic Impact Analysis Program, said in a news conference. “That category includes things like beef and dairy, cattle, poultry, any sort of milk, egg, honey production, as well as shellfish aquaculture.”

Losses in that sector are estimated at $30.1 million to $123.4 million.

(MORE: What To Expect From Hurricane Season In October, November)

Losses in field and row crops, including peanuts and cotton, are estimated at between $30.7 million and $93.6 million. Greenhouse and nursery products losses are estimated to be from $4.7 million to $68.8 million.

In addition, more than 3,000 agricultural structures - such as chicken houses or greenhouses - were exposed to Category 3 winds from Idalia, Court said.

Separately, the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services puts estimated damage to timber at nearly $65 million.

(MORE: Aerial Photos Show What Idalia Left Behind)

Georgia pecan crops also took a beating from Idalia. Trees were knocked down, branches ripped off and nuts blown away. Some pecan growers reported up to 80% of some orchards were lost.

Growers like James and Linda Exum say the damage was staggering. The couple lost about 400 pecan trees on their 200 acres of land in Brooks County, which sits on the Florida-Georgia line just east of Valdosta.

“Some parts of our orchards look like a bomb was dropped on it,” Linda Exum told Georgia Farm Bureau. “Some of this damage James and I will never see the farm recover from in our lifetime.”

Where The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Stands, How Much Is Left, And Where More Development Could Occur

Jonathan Erdman

Published: September 26, 2023

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season has already zoomed past an average full season's worth of storms, and there may be more to come through October, possibly November, despite a stronger El Niño.

The average storm count is already in the rear-view mirror. As of this time this article was published, 17 storms have formed this season, including an unnamed subtropical storm off the East Coast in mid-January.

That's three more than both the average number of storms in an entire hurricane season and the total storms from last hurricane season.

According to Colorado State University tropical scientist, Phil Klotzbach, this named storm pace is tied with 2005 for third fastest on record, behind only 2020's 23 storms and 2021's 18 storms through Sept. 23.

In fact, we're getting close to the end of this season's list of names. If we do run out of names again this year, an alternate list of names would then be used, starting with "Adria".

2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Names List

There have been plenty of hurricanes, too. Six hurricanes have formed through Sept. 26, just one shy of the average for an entire season.

Three of those became formidably intense, including Category 5 Hurricane Lee and Category 4 hurricanes Franklin and Idalia. That already matched the number of "major" (Category 3 or stronger) hurricanes from 2022.

We're over seven weeks ahead of the average activity pace. Using a parameter called the ACE index, which doesn't just count the numbers of storms, but also sums up how long they last and how intense they become, the season's tally as of Sept. 26 was more typical of what you'd find by mid-November, according to data compiled by CSU's Phil Klotzbach.

This year's ACE index topped all of 2022 by Sept. 13.

Atlantic hurricane season statistics as of Sept. 26, 2023.

Fish food, but landfalls, too. We've had many storms and hurricanes remain safely far from land over the central Atlantic Ocean, what some meteorologists refer to as "fish storms".

But we've also had landfalls. Most notably, Hurricane Idalia tied the Florida Big Bend's strongest hurricane landfall on record in late August.

2023 Atlantic hurricane season tracks through Sept. 26, along with water temps also as of Sept. 26.

Record warm water vs. El Niño, so far. This hurricane season shaped up to be a battle royal between an intensifying El Niño, which tends to reduce storm numbers especially in the Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico, and basin-wide record warm water.

As you can see in the track map above, there have been plenty of storms and hurricanes in the stretch of Atlantic Ocean generally outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, capitalizing on that ample record warm water for this time of year. Fortunately, upper-level winds have aligned to steer most of those away from land.

While the number of storms has been fewer in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, it's not clear that's from El Niño's squashing effect. Wind shear since August hasn't been all that high in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf.

What about the rest of the season? An average hurricane season generates another four storms, two of which become hurricanes, from October through the season's end.

When examined in terms of the aforementioned ACE index, 22% of the season's activity lies ahead in October and November.

On one hand, past hurricane seasons during at least moderate strength El Niños have struggled to generate October or November hurricanes in the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico.

However, the warm water wild card, as alluded to above, is still there, particularly in the part of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico most prone to late-season storms.

(MORE: What's Typical In October And November In Hurricane Season)

It remains to be seen whether El Niño will flex its muscle on the atmospheric pattern late this season.

If you live in a hurricane zone, particularly in Florida and along the East Coast, don't let your guard down when the calendar turns to October.

Weather Outside Your Window

Thursday, September 28, 2023

Hurricane Ian May Have Changed Florida Towns Forever

Residents Struggle To Rebuild

Empty Lots, Damaged Homes For Sale

Crossing Their Fingers For This Hurricane Season

Canada Wildfire Smoke Crossed The Atlantic Ocean...In September

Colorado Hailstone Confirmed As New State Record

Hurricane Ian: Lessons Learned One Year Later

Florida Agricultural Losses From Idalia Estimated To Top $78 Million

Where The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Stands, How Much Is Left, And Where More Development Could Occur

Man missing at sea for nearly 2 weeks found alive in life raft off Washington coast

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Thursday, September 28, 2023

Residents Struggle To Rebuild

Empty Lots, Damaged Homes For Sale

C​rossing Their Fingers For This Hurricane Season

Crossing Their Fingers For This Hurricane Season