Weather Outside Your Window: July 2023

Monday, July 31, 2023

Blistering heat, storms and downpours to pester central US

A dome of heat will remain parked over the south-central U.S. with soaring temperatures -- some of the hottest expected this summer -- as repeated downpours erupt along the northern edge of heat.

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published Jul 31, 2023 2:38 PM EDT | Updated Jul 31, 2023 3:26 PM EDT

As a heat dome persists over the south-central United States, rounds of storms will repeatedly pound areas farther north across the Plains and Mississippi Valley this week. Severe weather and flash flooding are among the dangers of the stormy weather pattern, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.

The Central states will be essentially split into two parts with one zone remaining dry and hot, while the other zone stays somewhat cooler, but also stormy at times.

Blistering heat to continue in Texas

Texas will continue to broil under a dome of high pressure this week that has been prevalent much of this summer.

Houston will experience its highest temperatures of the summer so far with multiple days at or above 100 this week. The hottest days of the week are likely to occur through Tuesday with highs of 101 to 104 forecast. The duration of extreme temperatures will push AccuWeather's new HeatWave Counter and Severity Index™ to a 13 in Houston, which is severe.

AccuWeather's exclusive HeatWave Counter and Severity Index™ quantifies and measures the duration and intensity of heat.

Dallas, San Antonio and a host of Texas cities, as well as much of Oklahoma and western Louisiana, may experience the highest temperature readings of the summer this week as temperatures reach the triple digits.

Temperatures much of this week will run 5-10 degrees above the historical average in the low to mid-90s.

Rounds of severe storms to target central Plains, Upper Midwest

This week will be a busy one in terms of showers and thunderstorms for areas north of the heat dome.

"Waves of energy will ride around the edge of the heat dome through this week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Courtney Travis said.

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Complexes of thunderstorms will develop and travel significant distances over the central Plains. Even farther north, in portions of the northern Plains and the Great Lakes region, fronts associated with reinforcing pushes of cool air from Canada are also likely to set off thunderstorms.

Thunderstorms will erupt and become severe at least at the local level over parts of the northern and central High Plains through Tuesday night and beyond.

Into Monday night, the full spectrum of severe weather ranging from high wind gusts and a few tornadoes to large hail and flash flooding will extend over portions of eastern Wyoming, southeastern Montana and northeastern Colorado to western parts of Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota.

A separate zone of heavy to locally severe thunderstorms will extend from southern Iowa to northern Louisiana through Monday night. However, the greatest risk of severe thunderstorms and downpours capable of triggering flash flooding will be centered on Missouri.

The risk of severe thunderstorms will stretch from eastern Wyoming to northeastern Colorado, Nebraska, northeastern Kansas, southwestern Iowa and Missouri on Tuesday.

Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the main threats, but the risk of flash flooding will also exist.

Farther to the north, another zone of severe thunderstorms is likely to erupt from northeastern Montana to southern Manitoba, much of North Dakota, northern South Dakota and central and northern Minnesota from Tuesday to Tuesday night.

The main severe weather threats in this zone will be similar to the area farther to the south over the central Plains.

At midweek, the batch of thunderstorms near the U.S. and Canada border will continue to push southeastward.

It is possible that severe weather, at least at a localized level, will threaten areas from northwestern Ontario to northern Michigan, northern Wisconsin and central Minnesota on Wednesday.

As moisture and thunderstorms over the Southwest extend farther to the north, there will be the potential for drenching thunderstorms and flash flooding centered on portions of the Tetons in western Wyoming that includes Yellowstone National Park.

Storms to offer drought relief, but may lead to flash flooding

As plentiful as rain has been across portions of the central Plains and Midwest, some areas are still in need of precipitation.

Pockets of extreme and exceptional drought continue over portions of Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri and Wisconsin among other states.

Rounds of rain will douse some of the neediest areas of the region. It is possible for the drought to ease at the local level in areas that pick up repeated downpours. The relief will come at a time when corn and other crops are in need of some moisture during the maturation period.

However, as is often the case when complexes of summer downpours and thunderstorms are involved, too much rain may pour down and lead to flash flooding.

"Even in areas where or certain days when severe weather is not expected this week, there will be pockets of downpours that can lead to flash flooding," AccuWeather Meteorologist Joseph Bauer said.

From portions of northeastern Colorado to parts of Nebraska and Missouri and southern Illinois, several inches of rain may pour down this week. Much of that rain may fall during a 24-hour period. It is possible for the downpours to reach parts of the Tennessee Valley.

"By the end of the week, it’s not out of the question that some towns could be hit with drenching thunderstorms and perhaps severe thunderstorms two or three times," Travis said.

When is heat relief in store for Texas?

"From this weekend to early next week, as the dome of high pressure shrinks a bit and reorientates a bit farther to the west, thunderstorms may dip farther south over the Plains and Mississippi Valley," Bauer said.

That could open the door for some drenching and cooling thunderstorms to reach parts of Oklahoma, northeastern Texas and Louisiana.

More than one tropical depression could form in Atlantic Ocean this week

After a brief mid-summer lull in tropical activity, the start of August to could breathe new life into the tropics with more than one new tropical system possible.

By Courtney Travis, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published Jul 30, 2023 11:24 AM EDT | Updated Jul 31, 2023 3:00 PM EDT

AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring the Atlantic Ocean basin for not one, but two potential areas for tropical development as the calendar turns from July to August.

After a quick and rapid start to the Atlantic Hurricane season, there has been a slight lull in tropical activity in the Atlantic through much of the summer. In under a month's time, the first three tropical storms of the season formed in the Atlantic: Arlene, Bret and Cindy. Cindy dissipated on June 26. Since then, only one tropical system has strengthened and traversed the basin. This storm, Don, not only became the next tropical storm, but also the first hurricane of the season. All of these storms formed ahead of the historical average, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

There are two areas across the Atlantic Basin that could lead tropical development into early August.

The first of these areas is just off the East coast, where a front pushing out into the Atlantic could help to develop a tropical low along the Southeast coast early this week.

"Any strengthening of this storm is expected to be well away from the U.S. coast, so no direct impacts to land are expected at this time," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.

If a more organized tropical system were to develop, the most likely impacts would be rough surf and strong rip currents along the East coast beaches from the Outer Banks of North Carolina to the Massachusetts Cape.

The expected northeastward trajectory is likely to keep the tropical system out to sea, with no anticipated impacts to Atlantic Canada aside from rougher seas.

"This is the same disturbance that rolled westward across the Bahamas earlier last week and made landfall along the southern Atlantic coast of the U.S. on Friday," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said. "If the system had an extra day and less land interaction this past weekend, it may have evolved into a tropical depression or storm."

The disturbance triggered locally drenching downpours from Florida to the Carolinas.

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"Additionally, an area in the central Atlantic is being monitored as it moves northwestward in the coming days," Douty explained.

AccuWeather meteorologists are giving this feature a high chance for development into a tropical depression through the middle of the week. Forecasters also noted that it is not out of the question that this tropical low could become a tropical storm, or even the next hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season.

“As this system turns to the north, wind shear relative to the feature’s movement may ease, and development could take place quickly,” Sosnowski said. In the case through Monday, wind shear was being produced by disruptive stiff breezes that were blowing the upper portion of the disturbance well off to the northeast of where the storm center was in the lower part of the atmosphere.

“In order for development to occur, both parts of the storm will need to line up better, and that could happen as the system turns northward and moves along with the winds rather than against them on Tuesday and Wednesday,” Sosnowski said.

Fortunately, as the week progresses, the storm is expected to be pulled northward, steering it well to the east of Bermuda and North America. Aside from some bigger waves and strong wind impacts to shipping interest across the Atlantic, impacts to land look minimal at this time.

Either of these two tropical systems becoming a named tropical system this week would continue the trend of earlier-than-average development in the basin. The normal date for the fifth named tropical storm of the season is Aug. 22. The next two storm names on the 2023 Atlantic Basin list are Emily and Franklin.

As the days tick by, the calendar continues to approach the historical average peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, which is around Sept. 10.

Development chances in the East Pacific remain high

On the other side of North America, AccuWeather meteorologists continue to watch for tropical development.

"A tropical low traversing an area of the East Pacific southwest of Mexico is being monitored for tropical development through Wednesday," said Douty.

If a storm were to organize and strengthen into a tropical storm, it would become the fourth named storm of the season. The next name on the East Pacific list for this year is Dora.

At this time, the expected westward track of this disturbance making any direct impacts to land is unlikely. The southern beaches of Mexico, however, should be on alert for stronger seas through midweek.

Exceptionally warm waters across this zone are expected to make the southern coast of Mexico a prime location for tropical development through mid-August. The farther east that a storm were to develop, the higher the chances for impacts to Mexico to occur.

In addition to the high chance for tropical development early week, forecasters are also monitoring two separate zones in the East Pacific basin. A zone farther to the west currently has been given a low chance of development early this week, while another area off the coast of Mexico has a low risk for tropical development later this week into next weekend.

Woman found dead on Montana trail following apparent bear encounter, wildlife officials say

A portion of the Custer Gallatin National Forest in Montana is closed after a woman was found dead. Grizzly bear tracks were found near her body, and populations have expanded in the area in recent years, wildlife officials said in a statement.

By Melissa Alonso, CNN

Published Jul 24, 2023 9:51 AM EDT | Updated Jul 24, 2023 9:51 AM EDT

(CNN) — A portion of the Custer Gallatin National Forest in Montana is closed after a woman was found dead following an apparent bear encounter, wildlife officials said.

Grizzly bear tracks were found near the woman’s body, which was discovered Saturday on the Buttermilk Trail, west of the town of West Yellowstone, Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks said in a statement.

“The Custer Gallatin National Forest has issued an emergency closure of the Buttermilk area for human safety,” the statement said.

The forest in southeastern Montana borders Yellowstone National Park. Grizzly bear populations have expanded in the area in recent years, the statement from wildlife officials said.

Grizzly bears are protected as a threatened species in the contiguous 48 states. They rarely show predatory behavior toward humans, according to the Interagency Grizzly Bear Committee, which consists of representatives from federal wildlife and forest management agencies, along with state wildlife agencies in Idaho, Montana, Washington and Wyoming.

“The Custer Gallatin National Forest has issued an emergency closure of the Buttermilk area for human safety,” Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks said in a statement. (Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks)

“Most dangerous encounters with bears happen when the bear is surprised, protecting cubs, or guarding a large food source, such as a carcass,” the committee’s website said.

In nearby Yellowstone, there have been eight deadly bear encounters since the park was established in 1872.

Montana wildlife officials are urging people to be “bear aware,” including carrying and knowing how to use bear spray, traveling in groups when possible and never approaching a bear.

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