By , AccuWeather meteorologist
Published Jun 14, 2023 6:21 AM PDT | Updated Jun 15, 2023 5:48 AM PDT
AccuWeather meteorologists say time is running out for interests in southern Pakistan and western India to prepare for a life-threatening tropical cyclone, as more than 100,000 have been instructed to flee to safety.
Cyclone Biparjoy, which has been roaming the waters of the Arabian Sea for more than a week, will unleash forceful winds, pounding seas and flooding downpours across the region over the next several days.
As of Thursday afternoon, local time, Biparjoy was categorized as a "very severe cyclonic storm" by the India Meteorological Department, which is equivalent in intensity to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (maximum sustained winds of 96-110 mph or 154-177 km/h).
The outer rain bands of Biparjoy were roughly 100 miles from the India/Pakistan border early Thursday, local time.
This AccuWeather RealVue™ Satellite image shows Cyclone Biparjoy nearing the coasts of Pakistan and India Wednesday afternoon, local time. (AccuWeather)
AccuWeather Lead International Forecaster Jason Nicholls said the cyclone will lose some wind intensity but remain a formidable storm at landfall, which is projected to occur between Karachi, Pakistan, and Mandvi, India, Thursday afternoon, local time.
A direct strike on the shores of the Indian state of Gujarat would make Biparjoy the second strongest cyclone to hit that region, following only Cyclone Tauktae in May 2021.
View Cyclone Biparjoy's Forecast Track Map
"If Biparjoy makes landfall in Pakistan, it would be the strongest [to make landfall] since May 20, 1999," Nicholls said. Storms were not named in the basin until 2000, he added.
Policemen stand guard on the Arabian Sea coast ahead of cyclone Biparjoy's landfall at Mandvi in Kutch district of Gujarat state, India, Thursday, June 15, 2023. A vast swath of western India and neighboring southern Pakistan that suffered deadly floods last year are bracing for a new deluge as fast-approaching Cyclone Biparjoy whirls toward landfall Thursday. (AP Photo/Ajit Solanki)
Local officials have evacuated nearly 38,000 people from coastal districts in Gujarat and around 65,000 from the province of Sindh in Pakistan, according to the BBC.
The cyclone's slow movement across the Arabian Sea has compounded impacts ahead of landfall.
"Biparjoy's outer bands of rain and wind have been impacting the Saurashtra and Kutch coasts of Gujarat since Monday," Nicholls said.
Officials say the rain and wind from the cyclone's periphery contributed to a wall collapse in Gujarat that killed three people.
The cyclone has churned up treacherous conditions throughout the Arabian Sea during its slow approach to land. Four boys were found dead Monday evening after venturing into rough surf at a popular tourist beach west of Mumbai, India, BBC News reported. Video footage on Twitter showed a boating vessel bobbing up and down amid high waves.
AccuWeather meteorologists say the risk to life and property is far from over across the region as Biparjoy moves onshore and then inland.
"Flooding rain and damaging winds are likely along the path of the storm," Nicholls said.
AccuWeather meteorologists expect 5-10 inches (130-255 mm) of rain with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 20 inches (510 mm). Wind gusts from Biparjoy are expected to be intense at landfall with widespread gusts of 60-75 mph (100-120 km/h) with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 95 mph (150 km/h). These winds are strong enough to topple trees and cut power in some communities.
The latest Cyclone Biparjoy Eye Path® as of June 15, 2023
Storm surge flooding is forecast to inundate coastal communities to the north and east of the point of landfall, potentially cutting off transportation. Two of India's largest ports — Kandla and Mundra — have already suspended operations, according to the BBC.
Forecasters warn that Biparjoy's impact will continue into the weekend despite the storm quickly losing wind intensity over land.
"Rain from this system can reach Rajasthan and western Madhya Pradesh this weekend," Nicholls said.
The storm, although forecast to be a shell of its former self by that point, can still pack enough moisture to lead to localized flooding. The rain is expected to stay south of New Delhi.
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