Published Jan 27, 2023 9:18 AM EST | Updated Jan 28, 2023 6:46 PM EST
Temperatures have been well above normal through the first month of the year in the north-central United States, but AccuWeather meteorologists say a fresh blast of Arctic air will deliver some of the coldest weather since Christmas through the weekend.
The cold air mass will steadily seep across parts of the northern tier of the country through Sunday.
"This Arctic air mass will certainly be the coldest of 2023, and the coldest since the Arctic outbreak leading up to Christmas, but it may not necessarily break many records," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Matt Benz.
In general, record lows in this area range from 40 below zero to 30 degrees below zero at this time of the year.
The cold is expected to be intense and widespread by Saturday night. Some spots in northern Minnesota could approach 25 degrees below zero. Similar readings could extend as far west as Montana. Thanks to some wind, temperatures will not dip as low as they sometimes do in an Arctic air mass.
"Since Arctic air masses are shallow in nature, it is not hard for a breeze to keep the atmosphere mixed and prevent temperatures from dropping like a rock, although any wind will aid in producing dangerous AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures," explained Benz.
When no wind is present, cold air tends to sink right to the surface. With even a slight breeze, the temperature is more uniform in the lowest part of the atmosphere, as opposed to the coldest air being right at ground level.
High temperatures will stay below zero in the higher elevations of Montana to northern Minnesota on Sunday. Temperatures may fail to climb out of the single digits as far south as northwestern Kansas, forecasters say.
As high pressure builds more overhead on Sunday night, the wind will diminish, and temperatures will plummet further. The coldest places could be in northwestern Wyoming on Sunday night. Yellowstone National Park will have the potential to dip as low as 30 degrees below zero.
Farther east, International Falls, Minnesota, sometimes referred to as the "Icebox of the Nation," could fall to around 25 degrees below zero on Sunday night. So far this month, subzero cold has been hard to come by in International Falls.
"As of Friday morning, International Falls had not recorded a high temperature in the single digits or lower so far in 2023, and they had only dropped below zero four times," Benz said. On Saturday, temperatures failed to go above zero in the city.
The lack of cold thus far has also limited the amount of ice on the Great Lakes, but this air mass should begin to change that.
"This cold air should go a long way in helping to increase ice concentrations, at least on Lake Superior," noted Benz.
The cold should gradually loosen its grip by next week, and this will be especially true in the northern Rockies. For example, Great Falls, Montana, is forecast to reach only 1 F on Sunday, but highs there may surpass 40 degrees by Thursday.
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