Major Northeast Snowstorms Have A Distinct Seasonal Peak

 Chris Dolce and Jonathan Erdman

Published: January 20, 2023

We've entered the time of year when major Northeast U.S. snowstorms are most likely to occur, according to more than 60 years of government data.

T​he Season's 40-Plus-Day Sweet Spot

From 1956 through last winter, almost three-quarters of all Northeast snowstorms attaining a Category 3 or higher rating on the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS) have occurred in the second half of January or February, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information.

The NESIS scale ranks the impact of Northeast winter storms from Category 1 to 5 based on snowfall amounts and the population affected. It was developed in 2004 by Paul Kocin and Dr. Louis Uccellini.

Of the 35 Category 3 or higher storms on the NESIS list through last winter, 26 struck between Jan. 16 and the end of February. A dozen of those storms have occurred in the first two weeks of February alone.

However, two of the three highest NESIS-rated storms happened in early March, with the clear front-runner being the Superstorm of March 12-14, 1993.

The number of Category 3 or higher Northeast snowstorms for each two-week period from December through March, according to the NESIS scale.

M​ost Recent Category 3 Was Two Winters Ago

As last winter illustrated, we don't always see a major Category 3 storm during the peak time or any other part of the snow season.

Winter Storm Orlena is the most recent storm to be a Category 3 on the NESIS scale. It struck the Northeast Jan. 30-Feb. 3, 2021, and delivered New York City its first 1-foot-plus snowstorm in five years.

Many more winters have impactful storms classified as notable (Category 1) or significant (Category 2) on the NESIS scale. Last January had three such storms in the Category 1 classification.

A​verage Snowfall Illustrates The Season's Peak, Too

This peak in major Northeast snowstorms from late January through February also shows up in average snowfall data for the Boston-to-Washington corridor.

In a typical season, New York City, Philadelphia and Washington D.C. see at least a small majority of their seasonal snow from late January through February.

Notorious Examples From The Past

Here are just a few examples pointing out this Category 3 or higher Northeast snowstorm climatological bull's-eye this century.

NESIS snowfall analysis for Winter Storm Jonas which a was a Category 4.

• Late January 2016 (Category 4): Winter Storm Jonas was a record snowstorm for New York City, Baltimore and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.
• Early February 2013 (Category 3): Winter Storm Nemo was a record snowstorm for Portland, Maine, and buried much of New England in multiple feet of snow.
• Early February 2010 (Category 3): Snowmageddon I and II hammered the mid-Atlantic states just days apart. Hundreds of thousands were without power and some roofs collapsed.
• February 2003 (Category 4): Presidents' Day II storm produced 4-inch-per-hour snowfall rates in Philadelphia; Reagan National, Baltimore-Washington, Philadelphia and LaGuardia airports closed; and it was a record Boston snowstorm.

Here are a few other memorable late-January and February major Northeast snowstorms prior to the 2000s.

• February 1983 (Category 4): The "Megalopolitan Snowstorm" crippled the entire Northeast corridor with 2- to 5-inch-per-hour snow rates, accompanied by lightning.
• February 1979 (Category 3): The original Presidents' Day snowstorm hammered Washington D.C. and the mid-Atlantic.
• February 1978 (Category 3): The Northeast's Blizzard of '78 crippled southern New England, in particular.
• February 1969 (Category 3): A large swath of 20-inch-plus snow buried eastern and northern New England.

Why The Peak?

There are no hard facts why this time of year has had so many big Northeast snowstorms. This is a topic The Weather Channel senior meteorologist Stu Ostro has investigated.

"I'm not sure exactly why that is," Ostro said. "Perhaps it's a reflection of an underlying meteorological tension between winter being firmly entrenched in North America and the atmosphere sensing the first signs of the coming change in seasons."

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.