Another Severe Weather Outbreak Is Possible In The Tornado-Weary South

 weather.com meteorologists

Published: December 31, 2022

S​evere thunderstorms, including tornadoes, are likely in parts of the South in the first week of January in what could be the region's fourth outbreak in the past two months.

W​ith the historic Christmas cold snap long gone, one ingredient – warm and more humid air – is already in place in the South.

A​fter New Year's Day, a frontal system will strengthen in the central U.S., accompanied by a powerful jet stream punching out over the Plains. The combination of wind shear and warm, humid air will team up to spawn severe thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday.

A​s usual for any severe thunderstorm forecast several days out, the key details – precise locations, timing, how many tornadoes and if there may be stronger twisters – are not yet in focus. Check back frequently for important updates as the forecast becomes clearer in the coming days.

F​or now, here is the latest forecast.

M​onday

Severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of eastern Oklahoma and eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.

The majority of this severe weather is expected to develop in the afternoon and could continue well into the evening or overnight.

These severe storms could be numerous, possibly an outbreak, with t​ornadoes, damaging thunderstorm winds and hail.

Monday's Severe Thunderstorm Forecast

(​MORE: Safety Tips For Nighttime Tornado Threat)

Tuesday

Severe thunderstorms are once again possible in parts of the Deep South from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening, including southeast Louisiana, parts of Mississippi, Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle and perhaps extreme western Georgia.

Once again, tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm winds are possible, along with hail.

Tuesday's Severe Thunderstorm Forecast

There's A Flood Threat, Too

Some parts of the South are still in drought.

However, given the number of recent soaking rainfalls, including in the last week of 2022, local flash flooding is possible where lines of thunderstorms move slowly, or in areas that see repeated rounds of thunderstorms.

A​ broad area of the South from eastern Oklahoma and eastern Texas to the western Carolinas has a high chance to pick up at least 2 inches of rain from Monday through Wednesday.

Severe Weather Fatigue

A​s we alluded to above, parts of the South have been hit by one or multiple severe weather outbreaks over the past two months.

Outbreaks on Nov. 4, Nov. 29-30 and Dec. 13-15 spawned at least a combined 112 confirmed tornadoes from Oklahoma and Texas to Florida and Georgia, according to National Weather Service damage surveys.

This animation shows both confirmed and reports of tornadoes, along with thunderstorm winds/damage and large hail reports in the three severe weather outbreaks Nov. 4, Nov. 29-30 and Dec. 13-14. (Note: Not all confirmed tornadoes may necessarily appear on these maps.)

I​f you're in the severe weather threat area, have multiple ways of receiving National Weather Service watches and warnings, including via smartphone, NOAA weather radio, local TV and radio. Make sure your smartphone or NOAA weather radio is able to wake you up at night if a warning is issued.

M​ake sure you know where to seek safe shelter if a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area.

I​f you live in a manufactured or mobile home, you need to identify a safe place to go long before the severe weather threat and how to get there.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.