Linda Lam
Numerous weather disasters made headlines this year and have us wishing for a less destructive 2023.
The third year of La Niña conditions contributed to expanding drought across the United States and a devastating hurricane season. Deadly flooding, along with tornadoes, severe weather, heat and wildfires, added to the notable weather in 2022.
Below, we highlight six weather changes we hope to see in the year ahead.
1. The End Of La Niña
La Niña conditions have been in place since the summer of 2020 and have influenced U.S. weather. La Niña is the periodic cooling of the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean, and the interaction of this cooler-than-average water with the atmosphere can affect weather conditions around the world.
The Atlantic hurricane season is typically more active during a La Niña event, which was the case in 2020 and 2021. This year was fairly average by many metrics but there were several damaging hurricanes, including Fiona, Ian and Nicole. A change to ENSO-neutral (neither La Niña nor El Niño) or El Niño could bring a break from the destruction of the past few years.
The weather pattern across the Lower 48 during La Niña often means drier-than-average conditions across the southern tier of the U.S., especially during the winter. Drought has been a serious concern this year and the end of La Niña could mean needed relief for many areas.
2. Widespread Drought Relief
As mentioned above, another La Niña winter is on the table and is very concerning with drought already in place.
A La Niña winter often means drier conditions for much of the Lower 48's southern tier. Just under 50% of the contiguous U.S. is in drought, with almost 75% of the Lower 48 at least abnormally dry.
There has been drought improvement this year in parts of the West. However, drought conditions developed or worsened in parts of the Plains and South.
There were seven consecutive weeks in October and November that the U.S. Drought Monitor had its most expansive abnormally dry or moderate drought conditions in its 22-year history. Abnormally dry conditions reached their highest percentage on record on Nov. 1 at 85.28%. Moderate drought conditions climbed to their highest level since 2012 on Nov. 1.
Drought caused the Mississippi River to drop to its lowest levels in decades, which impacted shipping and drinking water fall. The Mississippi River at Memphis dipped to its lowest level since records began in 1954. But levels have recently improved, and hopefully the wetter trend continues into the new year.
This winter and spring are also critical for California. If this rainy season is dry again, California would be in a more critical water deficit next year, bringing concerns for the water supply and wildfires. Precipitation is off to a good start so far this winter, but the wet trend needs to continue for the rest of the season.
The current precipitation outlook for the first three months of 2023 is concerning for California and across the Southwest and into the Southeast, where drier-than-average conditions are anticipated. Heading into the spring, La Niña will likely end and ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to return, which gives us some hope for a wetter pattern later in the year across the southern tier.
3. Less Destructive Hurricane Season
Although the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season was not hyperactive like the previous two years, this year was an example of how it really matters where the ones that do form track.
Hurricane Ian made landfall as a strong Category 4 hurricane near Cayo Costa, Florida, on Sept. 28. Ian was a deadly and very destructive storm for parts of the Sunshine State. Ian's storm surge reached just over 7 feet in downtown Fort Myers, but field observations of 15 feet were found in the hardest-hit areas.
Ian was also an example of a hurricane rapidly intensifying close to landfall, which makes the forecast more complicated, as we have seen in recent years.
Just a few weeks later on Nov. 10, Hurricane Nicole made landfall on the east coast of Florida as a Category 1 hurricane. Coastal flooding and beach erosion were extensive.
Hurricane Fiona brought heavy rain to Puerto Rico in September with 27.14 inches of rainfall measured at one station, which may have set a new 24-hour rainfall record for the island. Fiona made another landfall in Nova Scotia with powerful winds and coastal flooding.
In addition to hoping for another quieter year in terms of the number of storms, we hope the storms that do form don't impact land and that rapid intensification just prior to landfall doesn't happen, either.
4. Fewer Deadly Flooding Events
Several notable flooding events this year turned deadly. Flooding led to 100 deaths in the Lower 48 this year, which is close to the 10-year average of 98 flooding fatalities and a little above the 30-year average of 88 deaths. It is also an improvement from the 145 flood deaths that occurred in 2021.
The Kentucky flood disaster this summer killed 40 people when 6 to 9 inches of rain fell in just 12 hours. This was America's deadliest non-tropical flash flood in 45 years. Over 1,300 people were rescued and homes were swept away by the floodwaters.
Just days before the Kentucky flooding event, St. Louis shattered its all-time rain record for any single day in about six hours. Several reporting stations measured over 10 inches of rainfall. Two people died and about 100 were rescued.
Extreme rainfall will likely continue in 2023, but we hope flooding deaths will decrease again in the year ahead.
5. Fewer Billion-Dollar Disasters
Weather extremes continue to make headlines and one of our wishes is to have fewer billion-dollar weather disasters in 2023.
There have been 15 billion-dollar disasters in 2022 through Oct. 11 in the U.S. The annual average based on data from 1980 to 2021 is 7.7 events per year, but the average over the last five years is 17.8.
Drought and wildfires, along with flooding and tropical cyclones, made the list, as did 10 severe weather, hail and tornado events. Combined, these disasters caused the deaths of at least 342 people.
Tornadoes resulted in 25 deaths in 2022, through Dec. 19. Fourteen of those deaths were in March, when three outbreaks occurred. Severe weather also gained attention late this year when deadly and destructive tornadoes formed in November and December.
Fewer wildfires would also be welcomed, as 65,000 fires burned 7.4 million acres in 2022. This is the most wildfires reported in the past 10 years and the number of acres burned is above the 10-year average of 7.2 million acres, according to the National Interagency Fire Center.
6. Not As Anomalously Warm
Global surface temperatures in 2022, through November, were the sixth-warmest on record, and the entire year is expected to rank among the 10 warmest.
Both the Arctic and Antarctic had one of the 10 lowest amounts of sea ice coverage on record in November, which was another unusually warm month.
Temperatures in the U.S. were above average for the first 11 months of the year, with far-above-average conditions in parts of the East, South and West Coast.
Record heat made headlines in September in California and parts of the West as all-time temperature records were set.
In December, Utqiagvik (formerly known as Barrow), Alaska, shattered an all-time record high temperature for December when the mercury soared to 40 degrees. That was also the warmest the town has been on any day between Oct. 30 and April 22 in records dating to 1920, according to Rick Thoman, a climate specialist with ACCAP at the University of Alaska-Fairbanks.
In 2023, we hope to see slightly cooler temperatures and a break from scorching heat waves. Even better would be a change from the warming trend of the global climate, although that seems like a long shot.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
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