As Fiona strengthens in the Caribbean Sea, AccuWeather's tropical forecasting team are analyzing scenarios under which the storm could bring impacts to the U.S. mainland in the days ahead.
Published Sep. 16, 2022 2:03 PM EDT | Updated Sep. 17, 2022 6:17 PM EDT
AccuWeather meteorologists are forecasting Tropical Storm Fiona to strengthen into a hurricane and unleash life-threatening rain for several Caribbean islands into early week, including Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the Dominican Republic, but after Fiona is finished pounding those places with wind and heavy rain, what will its next moves be?
Could it bring impacts to the United States next week?
Here's a look at what the AccuWeather tropical forecasting team is paying close attention to, including two distinct scenarios for what could play out along the southeast coast of the U.S. next week.
After Fiona encounters the rugged mountainous terrain of the northern Caribbean islands, which could cause it to lose some wind intensity for a time, the storm will move into an environment favorable for restrengthening. The system will move over bath-warm waters, with sea-surface temperatures in the mid-80s F, as Fiona tracks north-northwest near the Bahamas early next week.
A satellite image from Saturday morning, Sept. 17, 2022, shows Fiona swirling over the Caribbean Sea. (AccuWeather)
There is a significant chance that Fiona may ramp up to a hurricane prior to passing through the northern Caribbean islands.
"There will likely be significant disruptive wind shear in this area at times, but as the system moves along in the same general direction as the shear, its negative impacts could be diminished and that can allow Fiona to strengthen," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck said.
If Fiona becomes a hurricane, it would be only the third of the 2022 Atlantic season. Hurricane Danielle, a storm that peaked at hurricane intensity twice over its lifetime over the open waters of the North Atlantic in early September before tracking toward Europe as a tropical rainstorm. Earl was the second tropical storm to strengthen into hurricane force. It reached Category 2 strength with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph over the central Atlantic in early September.
The track Fiona will take next week into next weekend will largely depend on the behavior of the jet stream over the continental U.S. One scenario forecasters are considering involves the jet stream taking a southward dip that lasts long enough to be able to guide Fiona on a curved path over the western and northern Atlantic -- and away from the U.S. mainland. AccuWeather forecasters say that is the most likely future track.
However, there is another scenario that has been looking increasingly likely over the past few days. This could occur if the southward dip in the jet stream does not stay put for as long. The jet stream could instead retreat northward toward Atlantic Canada, leaving only weak steering winds in the path of Fiona -- and the potential for Fiona to wander close to the east coast of the U.S. next weekend and beyond.
But complicating matters further will be another weather feature over the U.S. that could influence Fiona's movement. That feature will be another southward plunge of the jet stream. If that stays far enough west over the U.S., the window would be open for Fiona to move farther to the northwest and potentially along the Eastern Seaboard.
On the other hand, should that trough in the jet stream race along, it too could sweep Fiona out to sea over the North Atlantic after a brush with the East coast.
People in the Bermuda, the U.S. and Atlantic Canada, as well as cruise and shipping interests, should monitor Fiona's progress, AccuWeather forecasters say.
Even if Fiona never touches U.S. soil and stays well offshore, the action of strong winds over the ocean will cause waves to form and extend outward hundreds of miles in the form of large swells. As these swells reach the coastal waters of the eastern U.S. by next weekend, the surf can become dangerous for swimmers with the potential for frequent and strong rip currents.
If Fiona navigates closer to or along the East coast, then the storm’s rainfall and winds can pose dangers to the region in addition to dangerous surf.
Seas and surf are likely to build across the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas as the storm pulls to the north of Hispaniola early next week. Seas may build in Bermuda as well, depending on the track and strength of Fiona.
The southeast U.S. was brushed by two weak tropical storms, Bonnie and Colin, earlier in the season, but the country has dodged any more significant impacts. Hurricane Earl was the closest approach of a hurricane so far this season, and it stayed about 800 miles away from the East coast. Still, the storm stirred dangerous surf and rip currents. At least two fatalities were reported in rip currents as Earl spun well out over the Atlantic.
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