By AccuWeather meteorologist
Published Sep. 8, 2022 2:49 PM EDT | Updated Sep. 9, 2022 12:03 PM EDT
Parts of Japan that are still recovering from a devastating blow dealt by powerful Typhoon Hinnamnor face the potential for significant tropical impacts from an intensifying storm that is predicted to reach typhoon strength.
Tropical Storm Muifa is the latest in a series of organized tropical systems to develop in the West Pacific basin in the past few weeks. Muifa formed in the open waters of the Philippine Sea on Thursday. It continued to churn over the open waters to the east of the northern Philippines with maximum sustained winds equivalent to a tropical storm in the Atlantic basin on Friday night, local time, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. Muifa was tracking to the west at 12 mph (20 km/h).
"Muifa will strengthen as it tracks northwestward the next few days and can reach typhoon intensity before reaching the southern Ryukyu Islands later Sunday or Monday," AccuWeather Lead International Forecaster Jason Nicholls said.
The hits just keep coming for Japan's Ryukyu Islands, a chain of islands that stretch southwest from Kyushu, the southernmost of Japan's main islands, to Taiwan.
Last weekend and early this week, the island chain endured a swath of torrential rainfall and damaging winds as Typhoon Hinnamnor, the strongest storm to roam the West Pacific basin and all other basins this season, moved at a snail's pace over the region. With Muifa now on a direct path toward the area, AccuWeather forecasters say the island chain will likely endure its second strike from a typhoon in just about a week's time.
"Muifa is expected to follow on the heels of Typhoon Hinnamnor across the Ryukyu Islands, which received around a foot (300 mm) of rainfall at the start of the week," AccuWeather Meteorologist Alyssa Smithmyer said. "Any additional rain that falls in the next week will significantly hinder cleanup and rebuilding efforts."
If there is any silver lining with Muifa's forecast track and intensity, forecasters say that the storm's wind speeds are not expected to become as strong as Hinnamnor’s did when it was a super typhoon.
The cooling of ocean waters by the recent passage of Hinnamnor, a process known as upwelling, is expected to limit the overall intensity of Muifa. However, the storm is still forecast to reach a strength equivalent to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale by early next week.
AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ satellite imagery captures Tropical Storm Muifa as it churned in the basin on Sept. 9, 2022. (AccuWeather)
It's not out of the question that Muifa could even reach the threshold for a Category 3 major hurricane for a time next week, according to Nicholls.
While Muifa is not expected to become as strong as Hinnamnor due to limiting factors it will encounter in the basin, the slow pace of the storm could prove catastrophic -- regardless of category.
"If Muifa stalls over the Ryukyu Islands as it enters the East China Sea early next week, it can produce downpours for an extended period of time and create a dire flooding situation," Smithmyer warned.
It's not out of the question that 1-2 feet (300-600 mm) of rain can deluge portions of the southern Ryukyu Islands next week as Muifa unloads on the region.
"The longer the storm lingers near the southern Ryukyu Islands the worse the impacts will be," Nicholls added. "Saturated ground and weakened structures following Hinnamnor mean the damages caused by Muifa may exceed what is typical for the storm's actual intensity."
Given the already saturated ground, flooding is almost a guarantee for portions of the Ryukyu Islands. Mudslides in elevated areas are also likely. The extent and severity of the flooding will be determined by the ultimate pace of the storm.
After slamming the Ryukyu Islands, Muifa is expected push into the East China Sea and may even approach eastern China later next week.
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