By AccuWeather senior meteorologist
The above satellite image centers on a tropical wave as it moves across the open waters of the Atlantic on the morning of Sunday, August 28. (Photo/CIRA/NOAA)
Meteorologists have all eyes on the tropics in a race against time. Will a tropical system develop before the end of the month? Or will a quarter-century-long record fall as the calendar changes to September?
While almost a dozen named storms have come and gone in the East Pacific Ocean so far this season, the Atlantic Basin has been much quieter. The Atlantic Basin has had only three named storms so far, and none in August, but AccuWeather meteorologists say that could change this week.
Forecasters have been meticulously monitoring the Atlantic Basin for tropical activity, and several zones have favorable tropical conditions in the coming week, including two over the open waters of the Atlantic.
The waters between longitude line 40 west and the easternmost Caribbean Islands look particularly favorable for development.
"Confidence continues to grow that a tropical system will develop in the central Atlantic around midweek," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham.
As the wave approaches this area, it could strengthen. Even without tropical development, it is likely it could impact the northern Windward Islands with gusty showers and rough surf before the end of the week. This includes the islands of St. Johns, Antigua, Barbuda and Anguilla.
This area was largely missed by tropical storms and hurricanes last year. However, in previous hurricane seasons, the region was impacted by powerhouse hurricanes like 2017's Jose, Irma and Maria. In less than a month's time, all three major hurricanes slammed the northern Windward Islands and other islands of the Caribbean around the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season on Sept. 10. Destructive winds, storm surge and flooding devastated the region.
This tropical wave would have to ramp up uncharacteristically quickly for it to reach major, Category 3 hurricane strength before reaching the islands. Instead, forecasters say it is more likely that the wave would become a tropical depression by the end of the week or perhaps a tropical storm with sustained winds over 38 mph.
Buckingham explained that there will be a limited opportunity for the feature to strengthen, as it is likely to run into stronger wind shear over the Caribbean Islands.
The area of strongest wind shear, or disruptive winds in the atmosphere that deter tropical development, is forecast to shift east as the week progresses, running right into the path of the tropical feature.
Should the tropical wave and wind shear collide faster than anticipated, an organized tropical system may take longer or may not be able to develop at all.
Should a tropical system wait until Thursday to develop, this would be the first August to be void of named tropical systems in a quarter of a century.
"We’re only a few days away from this month becoming the third August ever to not have a named tropical system in the Atlantic basin," explained Buckingham.
Only two other seasons, since records began in 1960, have had an August void of tropical storms or hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean: 1961 and 1997. Both seasons also did not observe a tropical depression during the month of August.
The two waves currently passing through the Atlantic's open waters could spoil reaching that record.
However, this is not the only area of the Atlantic Basin that forecasters are keeping a careful eye on. There’s a non-zero chance something could spin up in the western Caribbean by Wednesday, potentially impacting Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula later on this week.
Despite the reprieve from tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin since the first week of July, AccuWeather meteorologists expect a notable uptick in tropical systems for the final months of the season. AccuWeather meteorologists are projecting a total of 16 named storms, with six to eight of them becoming hurricanes.
"It looks like September could really kick off an active period in the tropics. A steady wave train of energy rolling off Africa into the tropical Atlantic is expected to keep things active for a while across the Atlantic basin," warned Buckingham.
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