By AccuWeather meteorologist
Published Jul. 9, 2022 8:41 AM EDT | Updated Jul. 10, 2022 7:45 AM EDT
Residents in the northern Plains have been no stranger to rounds of intense thunderstorms that have moved through the region in recent days and throughout the year. AccuWeather meteorologists say that more of the same is in the cards, with severe thunderstorms expected through this weekend and into the upcoming workweek.
For much of this week, severe weather has been centered over the High Plains in Montana and the western Dakotas. According to storm reports received by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), the region has been impacted by severe weather every day since the start of July.
Storms became particularly intense on Friday, with over two dozen hail and damaging wind reports in Montana. Storms began as prolific hail producers in the mountainous western portion of the state, with golf ball-sized hail reported in several locations near Missoula, Montana. As storms progressed eastward and formed into a line, a swath of destructive winds developed along with it. Gusts to 90 and 91 mph were observed in Havre and Big Sandy, Montana, with various additional reports of tree and power line damage.
More of the same took shape on Saturday, as storms forming over the Montana High Plains congealed into an intense line that swept into North Dakota. Hail the size of golf balls was reported in several locations, and a top wind gust of 80 mph was reported in Fairfield, North Dakota.
Across the western two-thirds of the United States, a large bulge in the jet stream will remain in place over the coming days. While this is responsible for a long-lasting heat dome over the Desert Southwest and southern Plains, it will allow an abundance of warm air and moisture to stream northward, as far north as Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
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The stretch of severe weather is poised to continue into Sunday, expanding eastward to become centered over Minnesota but expanding west to encompass much of South Dakota, Nebraska and southwest Montana. While the coverage of the most intense storms may be slightly lower than the day prior, those in cities such as Sioux Falls, South Dakota, and Minneapolis may want to alter outdoor plans during the afternoon and evening hours.
"Sunday's setup will be similar to the day prior, with storms fueled by excess heat and moisture along the northeastern edge of the heat dome that will continue to envelop the western United States," Kienzle said.
The highest concentration of severe weather is likely to be in Minnesota, where multiple rounds of storms are possible. After an initial wave of heavy storms during the morning hours, additional storms may fire during the afternoon hours.
Storms will be more isolated farther west, developing over the High Plains before quickly sliding eastward overnight. In these areas, weather conditions can deteriorate especially rapidly as storms move in.
Once again, damaging winds and hail will be the primary threats. However, a few isolated tornadoes are also a possibility.
"Many of Sunday's storms will congeal into a line, promoting straight-line winds as the main storm threat. However, if a few storms can remain separate and show signs of rotation, a tornado threat may also develop," Kienzle added.
The active pattern will continue straight into Monday, with a swath of severe weather possible across the central Plains and Midwest. Storms are most likely during the late afternoon and early evening when temperatures are highest and the most energy is available for storms to develop. Cities such as Wichita, Kansas, and Milwaukee, Wisconsin, may be affected, and the evening rush hour in Chicago may be interrupted.
With several major interstates within the threat area for severe storms this weekend, travelers will want to stay aware of rapidly-changing weather conditions. Drivers are cautioned to never seek shelter from a storm beneath a highway overpass, as this is highly ineffective and can lead to collisions in poor visibility. In locations impacted by flooding, travelers should never drive through flooded roadways.
Additional storms are expected on Tuesday as summer weather returns to the Northeast. However, the central U.S. is likely to receive a much-needed break.
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