By AccuWeather meteorologist
Published May 15, 2022 10:58 AM EDT | Updated May 16, 2022 9:28 PM EDT
After days of warm, humid air, the atmosphere is primed to produce dangerous severe thunderstorms early this week across portions of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, AccuWeather forecasters say.
More than 60 million are at risk for some form of severe weather impacts into Monday evening as the storms are expected to target densely populated metro areas. Damaging winds are expected to be the primary concern, however, hail and isolated tornadoes are also a possibility.
Top hail reports as of early Monday evening were found in Chesapeake Beach, Maryland, with reports of hail 3 inches in diameter. Other large hail reports were found in Dares Beach, Maryland and Huntingtown, Maryland, with reports of 1.75-inch hail Monday.
"A cold front associated with this storm will dig across the Eastern states into Monday night," AccuWeather Meteorologist Rob Richards said.
Once this front comes head-to-head with the sticky swath of air already in place, strong-to-severe thunderstorms will quickly develop and race eastward. The timing of the most potent storms will be from through Monday evening, according to forecasters.
The National Weather Service responded to the forecast by issuing severe thunderstorm watches until 8 p.m. EDT in eastern parts of Pennsylvania, until 9 p.m. EDT for the coastal regions of Maryland and Virginia, and until 11 p.m. EDT for portions of the northeast (including Burlington, Vermont and Springfield, Massachusetts).
A considerable portion of the East will need to keep an eye on the sky for rapidly changing conditions through Monday evening. Areas from northern North Carolina, through portions of eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey, and northward into eastern New York and much of New England all have the potential to experience potent storms.
"These thunderstorms will have the potential to produce a variety of hazards including torrential downpours, hail, damaging wind gusts and even isolated tornadoes," Richards cautioned.
While any location within the area at risk for severe storms into Monday evening can experience torrential downpours, damaging wind gusts and hail, it is within the area of greatest risk where widespread gusts of 60-70 mph are most likely to occur within storms, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 80 mph.
Winds of this magnitude can lead to downed trees and power lines and can also cause some trouble for high-profile vehicles traveling along area roadways.
Following busy weather into Monday night, Tuesday will strike a different chord entirely for much of the Northeast and portions of the mid-Atlantic.
After the cold front exits much of the area on Tuesday, cooler, less humid air and breezy conditions will filter across the Northeast in its wake.
Temperatures on Tuesday will come crashing down in places like Binghamton, New York, and Burlington, Vermont.
From Tuesday and continuing through the midweek, many locations across the northeastern U.S. will experience high temperatures climbing to near average or below-average levels with significantly less humidity.
This easing of temperatures and humidity will certainly make conditions feel much more like spring again for a few days, rather than an early arrival of summer.
AccuWeather forecasters caution that this round of more comfortable weather may not be around to stay for very long as another pattern change is on the horizon. Late this week, a shift in the jet stream could bring a large upswing in temperatures back to the region once again.
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