By AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Apr. 26, 2022 12:55 PM EDT | Updated Apr. 27, 2022 9:41 PM EDT
AccuWeather forecasters say April will end in a fitting manner as another storm system emerges from the West and delivers rounds of severe weather and even some snow to the central United States late this week and into the weekend.
The nation's midsection has been bombarded by late-season snowstorms as well as severe thunderstorms this month. The pattern began just prior to the middle of April when a major blizzard unfolded over North Dakota and two pockets of severe weather broke out farther south over the Plains and south-central region.
A storm that unfolded this past Friday to Monday was not as intense as the storm that started the pattern back in mid-April and the next storm due to spin eastward will continue that trend. However, it will still bring some severe weather, including the risk of a few tornadoes as well as a narrow zone of heavy snow, mainly from Friday to Sunday.
"A leading ripple in the jet stream, ahead of the main storm can set off locally severe thunderstorms from late Wednesday to Wednesday night over portions of the central and southern High Plains," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said.
That disturbance will be moving through a zone of dry air and is likely to weaken as a result. Still, some communities can receive a potent thunderstorm.
"The main threat from the storms that fire from southeastern Colorado and western and central Kansas to the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas and northeastern New Mexico would likely be large hail and strong wind gusts," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist John Feerick said.
The lead disturbance will weaken after it moves eastward on Thursday. However, a zone of locally heavy, gusty thunderstorms may still erupt over portions of the central Plains from eastern Nebraska to central Oklahoma.
The main severe weather threat from the large storm system will ramp up later Friday and continue into Friday night.
While the setup does not suggest a major outbreak of tornadoes on Friday, there can still be a few with the storms' main threats being large hail and high winds, according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Matt Benz.
Forecasters say the most likely zone for severe thunderstorms later Friday to Friday will stretch from central Oklahoma to eastern Kansas, eastern Nebraska, southwestern Iowa and part of western Missouri. The threat in part of this zone extends well beyond the daylight hours, so people will need a way to receive severe weather alerts after they go to sleep on Friday night.
The Friday afternoon and nighttime severe weather risk will include the metro areas of Oklahoma City, Topeka, Kansas, Omaha, Nebraska, and Kansas City, Missouri. A moderate risk of severe storms will be present from Lincoln, Nebraska, to near Wichita, Kansas.
The potential for severe thunderstorms will continue farther to the east over portions of the Mississippi Valley on Saturday and Saturday night. While the overall coverage of intense storms may be sparse, all facets of severe weather seem possible.
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The greatest threats from the storms on Saturday and Saturday night are likely to be from high wind gusts and large hail. An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust of 70 mph can occur in some of the storms. Just as on Friday, a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
However, while the storms on Friday will not have a significant amount of moisture available, the storms that occur farther to the east over the Mississippi Valley on Saturday will have greater access to Gulf of Mexico moisture. As a result, the potential for flash flooding will be significantly higher with the storms on Saturday when compared to Friday.
Some of the storms later this week and into this weekend will occur in areas of the Plains experiencing major drought and dangerous wildfire conditions. While any rain would be welcomed, gusty winds and lightning strikes in some of the dry thunderstorms could add to the fire danger.
The same storm system may add insult to injury over portions of the northern Plains as it brings more snow and threatens to cause flooding.
The Red River of the North, located along the Dakota and Minnesota border, was approaching major flood stage this week with some communities along the waterway relying on pre-installed and makeshift levees to hold back the rising water. The storm from Friday to Sunday is likely to dump up to a few inches of rain over the central and eastern parts of the Dakotas.
Farther west, the same storm will produce a band of accumulating snow that can deliver up to 6 inches or more along the Dakota and Montana border this weekend. This is part of the same zone that has received several feet of snow since the middle of April.
After the severe weather threat comes and goes, AccuWeather meteorologists say there is the potential for slow-moving, drenching thunderstorms to erupt over portions of Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas early next week. While the risk of flash flooding could accompany such a setup, rain could provide temporary relief in some parched areas of the central and southern Plains.
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