By AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Mar. 16, 2022 1:47 PM EDT | Updated Mar. 17, 2022 9:52 PM EDT
Spring will begin on Sunday, March 20, at 10:30 a.m. CDT, but Old Man Winter will squeeze in one more snowfall across portions of the central United States before winter officially ends.
A rainstorm is likely to end with accumulating snow across a narrow corridor of the Plains and Midwest, including from western and central Kansas to northern Michigan, from Thursday night to early Saturday. Much of the snow will melt as it falls on roads since the blast of winter weather will follow days of warmth across the region. However, there can still be areas of slushy and slippery travel, AccuWeather meteorologists caution.
Prior to the winter precipitation, the region experienced a brief glimpse of springlike warmth. Temperatures rose into the 60s and 70s over much of the central Plains and Midwest on Thursday, including Wichita, Kansas, where temperatures reached 68 degrees. The mercury rose to 72 degrees in Cleveland, Ohio, and 78 degrees in Jefferson City, Missouri.
Meanwhile, highs in the northern tier of the Central States only rose into the 40s and 50s on Thursday. Temperatures in Minneapolis rose to 48 degrees while Sioux Falls, South Dakota, recorded a high temperature of 56 degrees Thursday.
The storm that will eye the north-central U.S. first dipped southeastward across the Rockies through Thursday. Snow fell over the higher elevations across much of Colorado, including outside of the mountains. Nederland, Colorado, recorded 18.5 inches of snowfall by Thursday evening, with Aspen Springs close behind with 17.4 inches of snow. Denver, which sits at about 5,500 feet above sea level just east of the Rockies, is set to receive several inches of snow from the storm. By midnight on Wednesday night, Denver International Airport had received 3.3 inches of snow so far, and as of midday Thursday, the snowpack statewide was at 100% of median, according to the NWS.
As the storm pivots northeastward and over progressively lower elevations of the Plains and Midwest from Thursday night to Friday night, snow is still likely to come into play.
"The storm will slowly strengthen, and as it does, it will begin to drag down colder air from the middle layers of the atmosphere," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. "There may also be a small fresh injection of cold air from the northern Plains that can be drawn in at the last minute."
Both of these factors are likely to produce a rather narrow swath of rain that will become mixed with and even change to snow from western and central Kansas on Thursday night to northern Michigan on Friday, Rayno explained.
Snow intensity and accumulations will depend on the timing and amount of strengthening the storm undergoes. For instance, if it strengthens quickly, then it will be more likely to bring a change to a period of heavy, accumulating snow to its northwestern flank.
Snow is not in the cards for Chicago, Detroit and Kansas City, Missouri, where seasonal snowfall totals are close to or just shy of normal. Chicago was almost 4 inches short of its average winter snowfall of 35.3 inches through mid-March, and Detroit and Kansas City were within an inch or two of their normal seasonal snow tally to date.
Meanwhile, for other cities like Des Moines, Iowa, Green Bay, Wisconsin, and Traverse City, Michigan, a snowfall of 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts is anticipated. Some of these cities are pacing well below average in terms of winter snowfall. For instance, snowfall has been about 55% of average in Madison with just under 26 inches this winter.
A slight shift in the track of the storm could push the snow band farther to the north or south a bit. At this time, the heaviest snow from the storm, east of Colorado, is likely to occur in portions of western and north-central Kansas, where an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 10 inches could be realized.
"Regardless of the amount of snow, most of the accumulating snow will tend to be on non-paved and elevated surfaces with this storm," Rayno said.
But, AccuWeather forecasters warn that there will be some exceptions. There can be areas of slush and slippery travel, especially where the snow falls during the late night and start of the day.
Farther to the south and east, the storm will drop rain from the southern Plains to the Mississippi and Ohio valleys during the latter part of this week as well as in the Northeastern states during the first part of the weekend. Minor travel delays could result from the wet conditions and low visibility.
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Flooding could still result from the storm despite the relatively light amounts of rain forecast. A general 0.50 of an inch to 1 inch of rain is predicted from the eastern parts of Kansas and Oklahoma to northern New England with local amounts of up to 2 inches possible. Water levels are already elevated due to melting snow across the northern tier, and additional run-off triggered by the rainfall could lead to surges and minor flooding on some small streams and rivers.
The same storm is also likely to produce pockets of severe thunderstorms from Texas and Oklahoma to Georgia and northern Florida late this week. Locally heavy and gusty thunderstorms may occur as far north as the Ohio Valley on Friday.
AccuWeather meteorologists are already monitoring the potential for a stronger storm system that may trigger a more widespread zone of severe weather and flooding across portions of the Central states early next week.
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