Weather Outside Your Window: Surge of spring warmth on the way for southern, eastern US

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published Mar. 1, 2022 12:18 PM EST | Updated Mar. 1, 2022 12:18 PM EST

It seems Mother Nature will take a cue from the flip to meteorological spring on March 1 across parts of the central, southern and eastern United States as the week progresses. The weather will warm up in a big way, and AccuWeather forecasters expect temperatures to climb well into the 60s, 70s and even the 80s F in some locations.

As winter hangs on across the northern tier of the Midwest and Northeast and reestablishes its grip in the West, a pattern change will allow April and May-like warmth to build in the balance of the Central and Eastern states with some locations set to experience their highest temperatures since last autumn.

"A northward bulge in the jet stream and high pressure at the surface will expand together from the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico later this week and into this weekend," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Joe Lundberg said, and added that," the building warmth will be very impressive, even for March."

Much of the Southeast has experienced a warmer-than-average February with departures of 2-3 degrees above normal in cities such as Orlando, Florida; Charleston, South Carolina; Charlotte, North Carolina; Birmingham, Alabama; and Atlanta.

The surging warmth has already begun over portions of the South Central states. Highs in the 50s and 60s were common across the region Monday, and highs were expected to climb into the 60s and 70s Tuesday.

"The warmth will be more than welcomed and follows a major ice and snowstorm from northern Texas and Arkansas Ohio less than a week ago," Lundberg said. Temperatures plunged into the teens, 20s and 30s during the outbreak of winter weather.

On Wednesday, daily record highs dating back to the early 1900s will be challenged in portions of Kansas and Missouri. Temperatures will reach well into the 70s to near 80 in cities such as St. Louis and Kansas City, Missouri, and Wichita, Kansas.

Unlike the Southeast, large portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Kansas, Arkansas and Missouri experienced a much colder-than-average February. The average temperature for the month was 6.1 degrees Fahrenheit below the average of 58.9 in Houston at 52.8 degrees, and 4.3 degrees below the average of 50.5 for Dallas last month. The departure in Houston was actually about 1 degree colder in February 2022 when compared to February 2021.

"A bubble of abnormally warm air from back on Feb. 22-23 may prevent portions of the South Central states from having their warmest day since last fall with the warm surge this week, but the high-temperature mark for the year so far and since last October or November is on the bubble for other parts of the Central and Eastern states this weekend," Lundberg said.

Even as mild and cold air swing back and forth across Chicago this week, a surge of warmth could push temperatures to near 60 Saturday. And even if temperatures peak in the upper 50s in the Windy City, it would be the warmest day since Dec. 15 and 16 when the high reached 66 on both days.

Farther east, temperatures are forecast to climb into the lower 80s from Mississippi and Alabama to the Carolinas by Sunday afternoon. A record high of 82 is projected in Atlanta on Sunday with the old record of 79 set in 1974 in jeopardy. The last time the temperature was this high was on Oct. 15, when the 85-degree mark was reached.

Just like in part of the Upper Midwest, cold air may linger over the northern tier of the Northeast this weekend -- and a wintry mix may even occur in some locations. However, warmth will reach from the Ohio Valley to portions of the central Appalachians and the mid-Atlantic regions.

Temperatures may flirt with 70 in Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia this weekend. Record highs in the mid-70s may be out of reach in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, but the daily record high of 71 set way back in 1935 in Philadelphia Sunday could be challenged.

Highs in the 70s will be common across Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia and Maryland Sunday. At this level, temperatures will be 20-30 degrees above average for early March.

New York City's best shot at the 70-degree mark will be Monday, just ahead of a push of more seasonable air.

The warmth will get chopped down from west to east across much of the Central and Eastern states later this weekend into early next week, but it may take until Monday or Tuesday before cooler air is felt in the mid-Atlantic and interior South. Warmth may fight on over the southeastern corner of the nation next week and could become a battle zone for rounds of rain and thunderstorms.

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Just ahead of the cool push, rounds of thunderstorms, some of which are likely to be severe, will erupt over portions of the Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee valleys this weekend.