Weather Outside Your Window: March 2022

Friday, March 25, 2022

AccuWeather forecasters warn storm-weary South may face new tornado outbreak

By Ryan Adamson, AccuWeather meteorologist

Published Mar. 25, 2022 10:22 AM EDT | Updated Mar. 25, 2022 12:04 PM EDT

AccuWeather forecasters say another tornado outbreak could develop across the South during the final days of March and impact some cities and towns from Texas to Louisiana that are still cleaning up following this week’s deadly tornado outbreak.

More than 50 tornadoes were confirmed across the South this week as a result of widespread and destructive storms that tore through the region over multiple days. The storms left at least two dead and caused catastrophic damage in parts of Texas and around New Orleans, which was hit by an EF3 tornado Tuesday night.

This weekend's weather will be quiet across the South, with plenty of sunshine and low humidity allowing families, friends and clean-up crews to pick up the pieces and brace for another round of potentially dangerous and damaging storms. Warmer air will gradually build over the weekend and into Monday with high temperatures in Dallas settling in the middle 80s. Farther east, highs in the mid- to upper 70s on Saturday should give way to lower 80s by Sunday in New Orleans.

On Tuesday, a potent storm will race from California to Kansas before slowing its forward speed and pivoting northeastward across the Central states on Wednesday. This system will first bring beneficial precipitation to California later Sunday into Monday.

As the storm pushes east of the Rockies, it will pull moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and into the zone of warmth over the South-Central states. At the same time, high above the ground, winds will increase. These three ingredients are likely to lead to a significant outbreak of severe weather that includes tornadoes from late Tuesday to Wednesday evening.

Most of the daylight hours on Tuesday should still be quiet, but that will change as the day transitions to night.

"Severe storms could occur Tuesday night with the biggest threats being hail and some high winds," said AccuWeather Storm Warning Meteorologist Timothy Richards.

Storms Tuesday night should generally remain to the west of Interstate 35, with locations such as Abilene and San Angelo, Texas, at risk for the storms. However, storms could approach the metro areas of Dallas and Oklahoma City as well toward daybreak.

(AccuWeather)

The risk of severe weather will increase significantly as it progresses eastward on Wednesday.

"The highest risk for severe storms on Wednesday and Wednesday night will shift east of the I-35 corridor in Oklahoma and Texas through Arkansas and Louisiana, in some areas that were just impacted by severe storms this past week," said Richards.

Large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will all be possible on Wednesday. While this storm is still several days away, the ingredients appear that they will be present to again potentially produce some strong and long-track tornadoes.

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Areas from near or just east of Oklahoma City and Dallas and on to Tulsa, Oklahoma, and Austin and San Antonio, Texas, are likely to be affected by the storms during the day Wednesday. But, it is possible that the most intense storms occur east of these areas late in the day or evening.

Similar to this week's severe weather outbreak, the peak of next week's severe weather danger is expected to occur at night. In this case, portions of Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, western Alabama and Tennessee appear to be at risk for violent storms Wednesday night. Forecasters say residents should be sure to have a way to be alerted in case a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning is issued for their location during the overnight hours.

"The main severe threat by Wednesday night will be strong winds as the storms form into a line," explained Richards, who added that a few isolated tornadoes and hail-producing storms will not be out of the question.

It is likely that the severe thunderstorms move eastward at a swift pace Wednesday night and could be racing along at 50 mph or more. This fast motion may not allow people in the path of the storms much time to react and take shelter.

"Moisture content with this system will also be rather high, so there will be a threat of flash flooding within slow-moving storms," said Richards.

By Thursday, eastern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, Georgia and part of South Carolina may be at risk for severe thunderstorms as the associated cold front advances eastward. However, by Thursday afternoon, the band of showers and thunderstorms may be less intense when compared to Wednesday evening as energy from the storm will be lifting hundreds of miles away to the north, forecasters say.

Many of the storms may move offshore by Friday, although the Florida Peninsula will have a chance of thunderstorms.

Winter to make a dramatic return in Northeast due to polar vortex

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published Mar. 24, 2022 12:31 PM EDT | Updated Mar. 25, 2022 8:25 PM EDT

People from the Great Lakes to the northeastern United States may want to keep heavier coats and snow brushes handy as Old Man Winter and his buddy, the polar vortex, are not quite done with the region just yet, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.

Cold air from northern Canada will move into the Northeast beginning this weekend.

"While this may not be the final blast of winterlike cold for the Northeast, it will certainly pack some punch," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said.

The polar vortex has weakened and is in the process of splitting, AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok explained earlier this week. When the polar vortex is in a strong phase, it tends to hover near the North Pole and the coldest air stays locked up near and north of the Arctic Circle. But, when the polar vortex weakens, there is often a southward discharge of much colder air in part of the U.S.

A piece of the polar vortex will set up shop over southeastern Canada this weekend. In this position, cold air will be funneled southward.

"A direct discharge of Arctic air will sweep into the northeastern quarter of the nation starting this weekend," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said, adding that the cold will persist into early next week.

Before the coldest air reaches the Interstate 95 corridor, there is the potential for locally gusty thundershowers with small hail on Saturday.

Temperature departures of 10-20 degrees Fahrenheit below average are in store, forecasters say. Typical highs in late March range from around 40 F in northern Maine to the low 60s around the Chesapeake Bay.

In the depths of the cold wave early next week, high temperatures are likely to be in the 30s in Boston and New York City, near 40 in Philadelphia and the mid-40s in Washington, D.C., where the National Cherry Blossom Festival is underway. Temperatures may stay below the freezing mark over the central and northern Appalachians for a day or two as the weather will feel more like early February.

"Widespread, gusty northwest winds may send AccuWeather RealFeel® temperatures plummeting as low as zero F across the Appalachians and into the 20s along the I-95 corridor as soon as Sunday morning," Anderson said.

Cloud cover and a breeze may prevent the temperature from plunging to mid-winter levels at night, but the temperature is forecast to dip below freezing over much of the region, including in many of the major cities along the Interstate 95 corridor early next week.

People who have started outdoor gardens may need to cover tender plants, and meteorologists caution that potted plants should be brought indoors.

Now that spring is here, it is getting late in the season for widespread snowfalls to occur. However, AccuWeather forecasters say the upcoming pattern will serve up some chances of winter precipitation.

"As the cold air passes over the open waters of the Great Lakes, there will likely be widespread rain and snow showers reaching well to the south and east," Anderson said. "While most roadways will just be wet, bursts of locally heavier snow in the higher elevations may make for difficult travel at times due to poor visibility."

Snow can cover grassy areas and even leave a bit of slush on some paved surfaces from time to time over the mountains this weekend and into next week. A few wet snowflakes mixed in with rain showers are not out of the question in parts of the I-95 corridor as well.

As the big dip in the jet stream pivots northeastward during the middle of next week, a warmup is in store for the region which may allow temperatures to swing above average for a few days.

However, more abnormally cold air may return in early April.

"Looking at long-range weather patterns across the globe, there is support for another big dip in the jet stream in the Northeast perhaps centered on April 3 and 4," Pastelok said.

After that, AccuWeather's long-range forecasting team expects more typical temperature fluctuations for the middle of April.

"The chill following any cold fronts looks to be normal or unremarkable for the middle two weeks of April, but there is the risk for more jet stream dips with bigger cold shots later in April or early May and that could then set the stage for late-season frosts moving forward in the Northeast," Pastelok explained.

Satellite imagery captures extensive damage from New Orleans tornado

Members of the hard-hit community of Arabi are expressing shock, and also gratitude, that they are still alive following Tuesday’s devastating twister.

By Allison Finch, AccuWeather staff writer

Published Mar. 24, 2022 1:02 PM EDT | Updated Mar. 25, 2022 8:39 AM EDT

Residents of Arabi, Louisiana, once again found themselves picking up the pieces in the wake of a natural disaster, following a tornado that rampaged through the New Orleans metropolitan area late Tuesday night and cut a path of destruction across the suburb as well as in the city's Lower Ninth Ward.

Dozens of homes and buildings were destroyed in the blink of an eye as a large tornado tore approximately an 11.5-mile path from around Gretna in Jefferson Parish to Arabi in St. Bernard Parish and then to New Orleans East under the cover of darkness. According to the National Weather Service (NWS), the EF3 tornado was on the ground for 17 minutes and had a maximum wind speed of 160 mph. The worst of the damage was confined to Arabi, which is a suburb of New Orleans.

The NWS also confirmed another tornado that spun from the same storm system. The twister touched down earlier in the evening across Lake Pontchartrain to the north of New Orleans in the community of Lacombe. This EF1 twister was on the ground for 12.2 miles and had max wind speeds of 90 mph.

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Satellite photos show just how devasting the damage was in an area that had already been badly damaged by Hurricane Katrina nearly two decades earlier and Hurricane Ida just last year. Louisiana State Fire Marshal Butch Browning estimated that more than 150 homes had suffered significant or catastrophic damage.

"To see [the areas damaged] looks like a model town where someone just walked in and stepped on some houses. Literally, matchsticks that have been strewn around," U.S. Rep. of Louisiana Troy Carter told AccuWeather National Reporter Jillian Angeline on Wednesday. "Unfortunately, this was not a toy model. This was people's communities and people's homes, and it was quite devastating."

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In a city generally without basements, residents were forced to look elsewhere for shelter when the dark, ominous clouds were spotted in the area. Residents shared to AccuWeather's National Reporter Kim Leoffler how grateful they were to have made it out alive.

"We're pretty lucky," one resident Kathy McGoey told Leoffler.

McGoey, like many others, recalls how quickly the twister came and how little time she and her family had to get to a safe space.

"Basically, we got in and shut the door, and we didn't have time to do anything else," McGoey said.

Another family rode out the storm in their bathroom. The winds were so strong that wood pieces were slammed into the side of Tim Blake's family home.

"I thought I was going to die. I really did," Blake said.

Despite all the damage and all of the flattened houses, some things just couldn't be explained, like the pie on Blake's counter that was seemingly untouched after the tornado flung two by fours into their house and shattered their windows.

Leoffler also obtained footage showing household items that appeared untouched on the table of a destroyed home. Leoffler reported that the family who lived in the home had just moved to Arabi about six weeks ago.

Officials confirmed at least one death in Arabi. The victim was identified as Connor Lambert, a 25-year-old resident of Arabi who had just had dinner with his parents and had been on his way home when the storm struck. According to The Associated Press, the St. Bernard Parish coroner's office said he died of multiple blunt-force injuries.

Eight others were injured and required medical attention, according to Gov. John Bel Edwards.

Edwards declared a state of emergency Wednesday afternoon following the destruction across St. Bernard, Orleans, Jefferson and St. Tammany parishes.

As neighbors helped one another with cleanup efforts on Wednesday, the community was filled with love and support.

"The lesson we can take from this is what it means to be neighbors to one another," Edwards said after visiting and speaking with the residents on Wednesday.

"It's just stuff. It can be replaced," Friscoville resident Michelle O'Neill said to NOLA.com.

(Twitter/@nolaready)

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Damage in St. Bernard Parish following the tornadoes that hit Louisiana on March 22, 2022. (Twitter/@nolaready)

Carter told Angeline that an additional round of federal resources for disaster recovery had just been announced Tuesday ahead of the storms, designating another $1.27 billion in federal resources to assist the state with recovery from Ida, with another $4.6 billion going to Baton Rouge and $450 million to Lake Charles -- areas that had been impacted by hurricanes Delta and Laura.

"And now here we are today, starting on yet a whole new discussion of resources for people who were unfortunately still building from previous storms who find themselves now in the throes of a very quick-moving tornado," Carter said.

New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell described the residents of New Orleans as resilient people in a press conference on Wednesday afternoon.

"We know that we are also on the frontlines of climate change, and this is just another example of that. My team, my administration has responded to over 15 emergency declarations in the less than four years, and it has been the response of the public that has truly gotten us through them," said Cantrell.

The Big Easy is no stranger to tornadoes. At least seven significant (EF2 or stronger) twisters have crisscrossed Orleans Parish since 1950, according to the Tornado Archive. The most recent large tornado was an EF3 which raked 10 miles through areas from just east of the industrial canal to Lake Borgne on Feb. 7, 2017, injuring 33 people.

The tornado that hit New Orleans this week featured 160-mph wind speeds, 10 mph stronger than the winds delivered by the 2017 EF3 tornado that hit nearby, and the two twisters each carved a path through the same roadway, Cardenas Drive in New Orleans, according to AccuWeather Senior Weather Editor Jesse Ferrell. “This week’s tornado path,” Ferrell added, “was also less than a mile east of the 1953 F2 tornado which took a similar northeast path.”

The tornadoes and the associated storm were a part of the same system that hit parts of Texas and other South Central states this week. At least two deaths have been blamed on the storm system, and between Monday and Tuesday, more than 50 confirmed tornadoes touched down during the outbreak, but that number is expected to change as storm surveys were still ongoing.

Weather Outside Your Window

Friday, March 25, 2022

AccuWeather forecasters warn storm-weary South may face new tornado outbreak

Winter to make a dramatic return in Northeast due to polar vortex

Satellite imagery captures extensive damage from New Orleans tornado

Man missing at sea for nearly 2 weeks found alive in life raft off Washington coast

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