Weather Outside Your Window: Storm to drop rain, snow and ice across southern US

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published Feb. 25, 2022 12:36 PM EST | Updated Feb. 26, 2022 3:05 PM EST

Precipitation has been continuously pelting some areas of the South, including a recent ice storm that left parts of the region without power. But other areas have faced drier-than-normal conditions this winter and especially in recent weeks.

Another storm is bringing even more wet weather to region this weekend, according to AccuWeather forecasters. Some of the areas that have been missed by recent storms will get in on the rain.

By late Friday night, spotty freezing drizzle began to break out from areas north and west of San Antonio and Austin, Texas, to near Dallas. The freezing drizzle continued expanding eastward into parts of Arkansas through Saturday morning.

The National Weather Service in Little Rock, Arkansas reported some accidents on the roads early Saturday morning with temperatures near freezing leading to icy conditions.

Rain broke out and expanded northward over portions of Texas, Louisiana and southern Arkansas on Saturday and expanded across Tennessee, Mississippi and Alabama into Saturday night, leading to wet travel conditions.

Even though cold air will be retreating across the Central and Southeastern states this weekend, enough chilly air is likely to linger to ignite some snow and ice along the northern edge of the storm as it brews and shifts eastward over the balance of the weekend.

A bit of wet snow and sleet can mix in across portions of Arkansas, Tennessee and perhaps southern Kentucky. It is possible that rain will freeze on some untreated surfaces where temperatures are near 32 degrees Fahrenheit.

The bulk of the storm’s snow and ice, which will tend to be rather light, is not expected to impact parts of northern Texas and Arkansas that were hit by a major ice storm from Wednesday to Thursday.

"The greatest chance for a small accumulation of snow will be over the higher elevations in the southern Appalachians from eastern Tennessee to western North Carolina and perhaps as far north as southwestern Virginia from later Saturday night to Sunday," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said, adding that "it is probably going to be a bit too warm for any problems on the roads at most lower elevations in the Tennessee Valley and farther to the east in the Carolinas."

A light mix of rain and snow is likely in Blacksburg, Virginia, from late Saturday night to Sunday. Farther to the south, rain is forecast to fall on Atlanta and Charlotte, North Carolina, on Sunday. A bit of sleet may mix in with the rain in Winston-Salem and Hickory, North Carolina.

Soil conditions in the path of the storm vary widely, and that will play a role in its impacts. Soil is wet over the Tennessee Valley due to a recent onslaught of storms, but moderate drought conditions are gripping parts of Florida and the Georgia and Carolinas coasts as extreme drought exists in parts of Louisiana, southern Arkansas and eastern Texas, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Precipitation, which generally falls as rain in Charleston, South Carolina, in the winter, has been about 50% of average since the first of the year. Since Jan. 1, Charleston has received just over 3 inches of rain, compared to an average of 6 inches. Drier-than-normal conditions developed earlier than that, as about two-thirds of the average precipitation occurred during the late autumn and December.

Farther to the west, in Lafayette, Louisiana, rainfall since Oct. 1 has averaged about 47% of normal with 11.25 inches versus the average of 23.52 inches. But, since Jan. 1, rainfall had slipped to about one-third of average, with 3.75 inches being recorded.

"The region can certainly stand a reasonable amount of rain with the spring brush fire season fast approaching," Anderson said.

Not everyone from eastern Texas to the southern Atlantic coast will get a thorough soaking, however, and rainfall in most areas is expected to be under 0.50 of an inch, with amounts of 0.50 of an inch to 1 inch expected closer to the track of the storm.

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Showers are in store for New Orleans during Saturday night and Sunday. Much of the balance of the time through Fat Tuesday is expected to be free of rain as Mardi Gras activities ramp up. Temperatures will peak near 70 on Tuesday with at least partial sunshine in store for revelers taking to the streets, AccuWeather meteorologists say.

Just to the north of the dry zone, conditions have been just the opposite, with above-normal precipitation falling instead. Small streams are near bank full, and larger rivers are predicted to be on the rise this weekend. Most of the major rivers are forecast to crest at minor flood stage or below. In some cases, such as long the Duck River in middle Tennessee, water levels are forecast to surge to moderate to major flood stage in some locations into early next week.

The storm is not likely to significantly aggravate flooding problems that are occurring farther to the north over the Central states. Three drenching storms in approximately a week’s time dropped a general 3-6 inches of rain on portions of the Tennessee, Ohio and middle Mississippi valleys. Nashville, Tennessee, picked up 4.16 inches of rain from Feb. 18-24, compared to a normal during the same period of 1.17 inches. But, rain will fall and may slow the rate of recession of high waters in some small streams or potentially prolong flooding of larger rivers.