Storminess will be a constant theme across parts of the continent, but other areas in need of drought relief will miss out on rain. AccuWeather forecasters break down what to expect in the season ahead.
Published Feb. 16, 2022 11:41 AM EST | Updated Feb. 16, 2022 11:41 AM EST
As winter winds down and the prospect of warm weather and vibrant, colorful landscapes draws closer, Europeans with a case of spring fever can turn to insight from AccuWeather’s expert meteorologists who have released all the details regarding what the new season will usher in across the continent.
The flip of the calendar to meteorological spring on Tuesday, March 1, and astronomical spring on Sunday, March 20, may not translate to a significant difference in the weather pattern across Europe compared to the winter months, which have featured frequent storminess across the north and lengthy dry spells in western and central portions of the continent.
For weeks, AccuWeather's team of long-range international forecasters has been analyzing the key patterns in play across the atmosphere and looking back at past years that may hold clues as to how the weather will unfold this spring. The team is led by Senior Meteorologist Tyler Roys, who has been with AccuWeather for nearly a decade, and Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert, who is in his 20th year at the company. They have answers to all of the pressing questions about the upcoming season and more.
Who will experience spring warmth first? And where will drought concerns escalate and have implications on agriculture? Read on for the main weather stories that forecasters are tracking for the upcoming season.
Storminess to linger across northern Europe
Throughout the winter, an active storm track has brought frequent bouts of precipitation to the northern tier of Europe, and forecasters expect that trend to continue right into the spring.
High pressure anchored over western and central Europe for the upcoming season is expected to deflect the vast majority of storms away from the southern tier of the continent and instead direct them farther north.
Areas from Northern Ireland to Scotland, the Baltic States and points north will be in line to face near- to above-normal precipitation as a result of the stormy pattern, according to Roys, who added that parts of Scotland could face the heaviest precipitation at times.
A wetter-than-normal pattern may have residents dodging raindrops and facing slower travel times a bit more than they might like during springtime, but AccuWeather experts say there is some good news in terms of curbing drought concerns.
"The United Kingdom as a whole experienced its ninth-driest January on record since 1862," Roys said.
Reppert expects near-normal precipitation across the U.K. this spring as a result of occasional brushes with storms moving in from the Atlantic Ocean, which is welcome news for any planting that needs to be done across the region. Scotland stands the best chance of ending up with a surplus of precipitation compared to average by the time the season’s done.
With the heart of the precipitation expected generally north of Wales and England, these countries will still manage to get close to average, according to Reppert.
Even with a near-normal amount of rainfall forecast, the winter precipitation deficit is likely to end up being too great to overcome completely this spring in Wales, the Midlands and southern England, according to Roys.
The storms that do cross the northern tier of Europe are expected to be mainly rain producers and not inflict widespread damage from high winds, forecasters say. As trees begin to bud and eventually become fully leafed during spring, there is a greater risk of them becoming top-heavy and toppling over in blustery conditions.
A man sits on a bench with a dog as a gust of wind blows Weeping Willow trees on either side of him on a windy day in Bushy Park, southwest London, Friday, May 21, 2021. (AP Photo/Matt Dunham)
"Overall, in terms of storms that are bringing damaging winds, the season that began on a whimper will likely end on a whimper," Roys said. "Since the autumn, the number of named windstorms have been less numerous compared to normal."
Windstorms are generally at their peak over the winter months and tend to become less frequent throughout the spring.
Storm Arwen was a notable windstorm in November 2021 that was dubbed one of the worst to impact the U.K. in decades due to the extensive destruction wrought by roaring winds. Less than two weeks later, Storm Barra pounded the region with deadly force.
In late January, northern Europe faced back-to-back blows from Storm Malik and Storm Corrie, with each storm leaving behind a trail of destruction.
Drought concerns to rise amid building warmth in Spain, Portugal
The aforementioned area of high pressure that will steer weather systems across northern Europe on occasion throughout the season is expected to promote plenty of dry weather, sunshine and building warmth for areas farther south, including from the Iberian Peninsula to portions of France, Italy and the Balkan states.
"Any winter crops that need to be harvested, this weather should be excellent for that, and farmers could get ahead of schedule," Roys said. Not only should the weather be outstanding for harvesting winter crops, but it could allow farmers to get ahead of schedule for planting the next rounds of crops, he added.
Although the outlook is ideal for those itching to get outdoors and enjoy the warmth that spring has to offer, AccuWeather meteorologists say there is a significant concern of growing drought conditions as a result.
Forecasters have pinpointed Spain, Portugal and southern France as areas where the combination of below-normal precipitation and heat could cause drought concerns to loom large.
In Spain and Portugal, this has been one of the driest winters those countries have had on record, and this theme will likely continue into the spring, according to Roys.
In terms of agriculture, experts caution that the negative impacts of the lack of rain for farmers are likely to outweigh the positives.
In especially dry years, parts of the old village of Aceredo, submerged three decades ago when a hydropower dam flooded the valley, would appear. But never before had the skeleton of the village emerged in its entirety, in the middle of the usually wet winter season. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)
Trying to grow crops with below-normal precipitation can ultimately lead to a lower crop yield overall, including for the corn and wheat crop in France.
"The drought, especially in southern parts of Spain and Portugal, could cause major devastation with the olive crop," Reppert warned.
Spain recorded its second-driest January of the 21st century last month, as rain amounts were 26% of normal, according to a local newspaper, The Olive Press. The national average reservoir capacity has fallen to approximately 45% as a result of the extremely dry conditions and, in one place, caused a long-submerged village to re-emerge from the depths.
An index produced by Germany's meteorological service showed that moderate to severe drought conditions expanded in coverage across Spain, Portugal, southeastern France and into northern Italy from December 2021 to January 2022.
"The lack of rain and low reservoirs will significantly hinder the ability to use irrigation there. And as we get into the drier time of year, this will be a bad start to the growing season. We may see some farmers not even be able to get olives in parts of Spain as the lack of water kills or halts any growth from the olive tree," Reppert said.
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist and Lead International Forecaster Jason Nicholls noted that farmers could delay planting if the ground is too dry and there are no prospects of rain. However, for many whose livelihood depends on the harvest, there may be no choice but to plant in the dry soil and hope for the best.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
The parched conditions will boost temperatures a bit more than they would during a pattern featuring more rainy periods. When the ground is dry, more of the sun's energy can go directly into heating the ground and air instead of evaporating moisture.
"We could see parts of Spain and Portugal at 5 to 9 F (3 to 5 C) degrees above normal, and southwestern France could be upwards of 4 to 5 F (2 to 3 C) above normal this spring," Roys said.
Once this cycle of dry, warm weather begins, it can be difficult to break heading into the summer months.
"Heading into summer, the dry and mild weather this spring could indicate more drought and could lead to early heat arriving in May for Spain and Portugal and even into southern France," Roys said. "And we’re talking about 90s F (32 to 37 C), which is a rare thing that time of year."
Forecasters say areas farther east, including Greece and Italy, will also not be out of the woods in terms of growing drought concerns.
In Greece, precipitation is expected to be near to below normal, perhaps closer to normal in terms of rainfall than Spain and Italy, according to Reppert.
Rapeseed fields are in full blossom on the outskirts of Frankfurt, Germany, as the sun rises on Wednesday, May 5, 2021. (AP Photo/Michael Probst)
Mild weather to grace central Europe between brushes with precipitation
The center of the continent can expect a rather temperate spring, forecasters say, with no particularly long periods of wet or dry weather that will push precipitation departures to either extreme over the course of the season.
Precipitation across northern France, Germany, Poland and into the interior Balkans is expected to be largely near to slightly below normal.
"In this area, you will have periods of storminess that last for maybe five days at a time but also longer dry periods. As the storm track remains to the north, the steady precipitation will remain northward as well, for the most part, this season," Roys said.
The spring as a whole is expected to be mild across the region, but there can be a tug-of-war at times in terms of temperatures.
"Germany and Poland are likely to see a 'two steps forward and one step back' progression with temperatures. Although it will be warming, [temperatures] will still struggle to remain consistently above average for a few weeks," Reppert said.
As storm systems occasionally sweep through central Europe and collide with the building mild air, forecasters say that it is not out of the realm of possibility that this could touch off a few severe weather events as the season progresses.
"With the mild conditions and storm track north of this area, severe thunderstorms will have the ability to fire up across northern France into Poland, especially in April and May," Roys said.
Clouds cover the sky over the Ernst-Taehlmann-Park housing estate after a thunderstorm in Berlin, Germany, Thursday, March 11, 2021. (AP Photo/Markus Schreiber)
In addition to potentially causing a sudden disruption to travel and daily routines, the strongest thunderstorms this spring could also be capable of bringing the risk of damaging winds, hail and flash flooding.
The Balkans will be another area where severe thunderstorms could ignite later on in spring.
There will likely be an increased threat for storms during the month of May in this area, as cool air over Ukraine collides with the mild conditions farther west, according to Roys.
"Mild air will try to enter into Ukraine and Belarus during the springtime, but we are concerned in the month of May of high pressure becoming stalled across the region, which would promote cooler and drier weather," Roys said.
That setup could lead to a late-season frost or freeze for parts of the region.
"For many locations, the late last spring freeze typically happens by the middle of May," Roys said.
More to read:
For the latest weather news check back on AccuWeather.com. Watch the AccuWeather Network on DIRECTV, Frontier, Spectrum, fuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios. AccuWeather Now is now available on your preferred streaming platform.
No comments:
Post a Comment