By AccuWeather meteorologist
Published Dec. 30, 2021 12:43 PM EST | Updated Dec. 31, 2021 4:53 AM EST
Residents of the Northeast are in for a reality check shortly after the ball drops on a mild New Year's Eve. AccuWeather forecasters expect a soaking storm to arrive New Year's Day and unleash a dramatic temperature swing in its wake.
Old Man Winter has been rather kind to the region so far this season due to a lack of Arctic air intrusions and major snowstorms. Similar to a vast majority of the eastern two-thirds of the nation, above-normal warmth has dominated the final month of 2021 and has resulted in widespread snow droughts.
Temperatures have averaged 3-7 degrees above normal across the region this month, and cities such as New York City, Boston and Pittsburgh have received only 4 percent of their normal December snowfall.
It's only fitting that the mild weather will carry right into New Year's Eve celebrations.
A passing shower or sprinkle cannot be ruled out during the evening hours in New York City and Boston on New Year's Eve, but any heavy rain from a storm approaching from the west is expected to hold off until well after midnight, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
Midnight temperatures are expected to be around 50 degrees Fahrenheit in New York City and 44 in Boston, with similar temperate conditions expected elsewhere across the region.
Steady, soaking rain is forecast to spread over the central Appalachians through much of the Northeast on Saturday and Saturday night. The same storm poised to bury areas from the southern Rockies to the Great Lakes and southeastern Canada with heavy snow during the first days of 2022 will be responsible for the rainy weather farther east.
"Those hitting the roads on New Year's Day may encounter travel delays due to pockets of heavy rain, patchy fog and wet roads," Sosnowski said. This includes areas such as Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City and Boston.
In portions of northern and western New York and New England, enough of a chill may linger in the air prior to and during the storm for a period of snow or an icy mix to create slippery road conditions Saturday night into early Sunday.
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A much broader area may be at risk for icy spots to develop as the storm begins its departure and colder air rushes in behind it, leading to a sudden freeze-up in some areas. Temperatures can plunge 15-25 degrees from Sunday to Monday across much of the East, with some areas nearing a 30-degree dip.
Temperatures on Sunday in Washington, D.C., Baltimore and Philadelphia may approach levels that haven't been reached on Jan. 2 since 1876, when record high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s were set. But by early Monday morning, the mercury is projected to plummet into the lower 30s in all three cities.
The greatest risk for a rapid freeze-up to occur may be from portions of the upper Ohio Valley through the central and southern Appalachians from Sunday into Sunday night. There is the potential for a freeze-up to extend farther northeastward along the Interstate 95 corridor, but forecasters point toward a quicker departure of precipitation and gusty winds as being limiting factors for widespread icy spots to develop on untreated surfaces, despite a rapid temperature drop.
Motorists and pedestrians will still want to be cautious whenever they encounter what appears to be a wet patch on Sunday night or early Monday morning, as it could actually be a layer of ice, forecasters warn.
AccuWeather meteorologists are actively monitoring the potential for a trailing storm to develop and move through the Carolinas and lower mid-Atlantic on Sunday and Sunday night.
"If this storm develops, then there is a chance that cold air will catch up to the precipitation and produce some snow in the mid-Atlantic," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.
As of Thursday afternoon, many details still need to be ironed out in the atmosphere for this scenario to unfold, but one thing is certain -- it's going to get cold. Winter jackets, hats and gloves that likely haven't been used for much of the winter will definitely get some more use in the days to come.
The cold shot will be fleeting, however, as milder weather could return as early as the middle of next week.
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