AccuWeather forecasters say cold air will rush over the unusually warm waters of the Great Lakes later this week and kickstart a prolonged lake-effect snow event.
Published Nov. 9, 2021 12:34 PM EST | Updated Nov. 10, 2021 7:58 AM EST
AccuWeather meteorologists say Mother Nature is ready to flip a switch to turn on the lake-effect snow machine and unleash wintry conditions for areas surrounding the Great Lakes this week.
A storm forecast to bring accumulating snow to portions of the northern United States and southern Canada will have a hand in bringing adverse weather farther east to end the week. This potent storm is forecast to sweep across the Great Lakes and push into eastern Ontario, Canada, Friday, allowing frigid air to rush eastward in its wake.
"As much colder air sweeps into the East, a prolonged lake-effect snow event is expected to set up which could span several days," AccuWeather Meteorologist Jake Sojda said.
Certain atmospheric conditions need to fall into place in order for lake-effect snow to occur. One component is that the air that blows across the Great Lakes has to be significantly colder than the water in the lakes.
Even though the U.S. is deep into autumn, the Great Lakes have not gotten the message that summer is over.
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"As of Nov. 7, each of the Great Lakes is running hot for this time of year, compared to the 1995-2020 average, by three to five degrees Fahrenheit," AccuWeather Meteorologist and Senior Weather Editor Jesse Ferrell explained.
"Shallower waters nearshore are running even higher, with Buffalo's water temperature at 54 degrees F, 10 degrees above its November average."
When the cold air rushes across these very warm lakes late this week, it'll be the perfect recipe for lake-effect snow.
This round could produce accumulations ranging from a quick coating to an inch of snow to as much as half a foot in the typical snow belts, such as western portions of Michigan and southwestern New York.
Residents in these snow-prone areas, as well as motorists using sections of interstates 90, 94 and 96, will need to be alert for potentially hazardous, rapidly changing conditions.
"One particularly dangerous hazard that could arise from this event is sudden snow squalls, which can quickly reduce visibility to near zero and create icy and snow-covered roads with little warning," Sojda cautioned.
Residents impacted by this first round of lake-effect snow will not have much time at all to recover before a second round arrives.
A clipper storm will race through the region Sunday, disrupting the lake-effect snow bands, but also potentially bringing some widespread accumulating snow across the region, according to Sojda.
"Behind the clipper, a reinforcing shot of cold air will arrive, revving up the lake-effect snow machine again Monday," Sojda said.
Once lake-effect snow gets underway next Monday, it is forecast to continue into the middle of next week.
"The wind direction will be shifting over the course of the whole event, so the lake-effect snow bands will also shift accordingly, spraying lake-effect snow over a wide area downwind of the lakes," Sojda explained.
Brian Cintron walks in his snow-bound south Buffalo neighborhood on Thursday, Nov. 20, 2014, in Buffalo, N.Y. (AP Photo/Mike Groll, File)
When added to the snow totals from the first round of lake-effect snow, the widespread snow depth for impacted areas through the middle of next week could be anywhere from 6 inches to a foot or more.
"There will be some spots downwind of the lakes that will see persistent lake-effect as well over the course of several days despite the changing wind directions," said Sojda, who added that these areas could pick up multiple feet of snow.
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