Weather Outside Your Window: Tropical downpours to eye storm-weary Gulf Coast as Ida recovery continues

By Courtney Travis, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Updated Sep. 6, 2021 5:47 AM EDT

Residents of the Gulf Coast region were just beginning a slow recovery from Hurricane Ida nearly a week after the storm delivered a devastating blow to the region, and AccuWeather meteorologists were warning that another potential tropical threat could unload more rain on the flood-weary region this week.

As the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, Sept. 10, approaches, AccuWeather's team of tropical weather experts continues to monitor the basin for tropical activity in the wake of Ida. Hurricane Larry is currently roaming the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean, but direct impacts from the system are projected to remain away from the U.S. However, a tropical feature closer to U.S. soil has also grabbed forecasters' attention as an area to watch.

"The tropical disturbance will move over the Bay of Campeche and southwestern Gulf of Mexico, where warm waters there will foster some opportunity for development early in the week," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Randy Adkins.

Despite the warmer waters, AccuWeather meteorologists predict the tropical disturbance will have a limited opportunity to strengthen into a more defined tropical feature due to strong wind shear in the region as well.

"The greatest chance of development is likely to be over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico during the middle days of this week, but fortunately, rapid strengthening is not likely in this situation," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.

This image, captured at midday on Sunday, Sept. 5, 2021, shows a mass of clouds gathering near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. (CIRA at Colorado State/GOES-East)

"A very weak circulation center may be trying to form along the northern coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula," Sosnowski added on Sunday.

Regardless of development or not, impact is expected to spread northward to the central Gulf coast as the week progresses.

"Even without developing into a more organized tropical system, much of this feature's moisture is expected to reach the Gulf Coast by the middle of the week," added Adkins.

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Through the middle of the week, a widespread 2-4 inches of rain could fall, with locally higher amounts possible. The excess tropical moisture could bring heavier-than-normal downpours to much of the region, between the southeastern Texas Gulf Coast and the Florida Panhandle. An inch or so of heavy rain may come down in just a couple of hours in some areas.

The direction of the tropical low's path and the exact focus of its heavy rain will be determined by the strength of the wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico.

"It's not a guarantee that the heaviest rain will track near those hardest hit by Ida in Louisiana and Mississippi," explained Adkins, adding a shift in the low's track to the west or east could spare the waterlogged areas of central Gulf Coast.

"There is some indication, that the batch of heavy rain, along with a center of low pressure may migrate eastward along the upper Gulf coast at midweek and then perhaps across northern Florida from Thursday to Friday," Sosnowski added.

The low pressure could also cross into the Atlantic Ocean and develop there instead.

This central portion of the Gulf Coast is still reeling from Hurricane Ida, which made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane on Sunday, Aug. 29, in Louisiana.

Almost a week later, as of Friday morning, over 825,000 customers were still without power in southern Mississippi and Louisiana, including most of New Orleans. Over a dozen river gauges were measured at minor or moderate flood stage, and residents are still cleaning up from what Jean Lafitte Mayor Tim Kerner called "catastrophic" flooding due to Ida, NPR reported. In addition to coastal flooding, rainfall totals in excess of 10 inches were reported across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi and the Florida Panhandle in association with Ida.

The Associated Press reported that power is expected to be restored to much of New Orleans by this coming Wednesday, Sept. 8.

Jerilyn Collins returns to her destroyed home with the assistance of a Louisiana National Guard high-water vehicle to retrieve medicine for herself and her father, and a few possessions, after she evacuated from rising floodwater in the aftermath of Hurricane Ida in LaPlace, La., Monday, Aug. 30, 2021. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

(AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

Cleanup and electricity-restoration efforts are likely to be hampered should another dose of heavy rain hit the region. Additionally, rivers and streams will likely be even slower to recede. Floodwaters that had just waned could rise more quickly than normal, due to saturated soil in the region.

Residents and aid volunteers should be sure to stay alert for changing weather conditions through the middle of the week.

Hurricane Ida is the fourth hurricane to make landfall in Louisiana in just over a year, joining the ranks of hurricanes Laura, Delta and Zeta from the historic 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.