By AccuWeather Meteorologist
The threat of dangerous severe thunderstorms will return to the Great Lakes this week, and AccuWeather meteorologists say the storms could unleash a variety of impacts including downpours, hail, gusty winds and even isolated tornadoes.
Experts say severe weather is likely to return to the Midwest from Monday evening to Tuesday evening, and several large metro areas, including Chicago and Detroit, are at risk.
The weather in the Midwest has generally been quiet in terms of severe weather since gusty thunderstorms tore through the region over a week ago on Aug. 29, downing trees and causing power outages in Michigan and Indiana.
"A potent wave of energy will help generate an area of low pressure across near the Canadian border with North Dakota and Minnesota late Monday," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Matt Benz.
This area of low pressure can help stir up severe thunderstorms in places like Duluth, Minnesota, and Marquette, Michigan. Conditions at the surface will also be conducive to high-intensity storms.
"At the surface, a narrow ribbon of moisture moving down the Red River Valley will help feed thunderstorm development near the low's center Monday evening and night," said Benz.
Cooler air aloft in the atmosphere combined with potent thunderstorm updrafts will spell a recipe for hail to form.
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"Hail will likely be the main concern with any thunderstorms that erupt across northern Minnesota to the Northwoods of Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan," Benz said. Damaging winds will also be a concern with the potential for some flooding downpours.
This storm will shift east over the Great Lakes on Tuesday, powering more storms on Tuesday afternoon and evening.
"The dynamics of the atmosphere change a bit for Tuesday, with more wind shear expected in the lower levels of the atmosphere, especially across the Lower Peninsula of Michigan," said Benz.
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Not only will hail be a concern on Tuesday, but tornadoes will also be possible. Storms can bring heavy downpours, isolated tornadoes, hail and damaging wind gusts with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 80 mph (129 km/h). These storms can impact cities with large populations such as Chicago; Traverse City and Detroit, Michigan; Indianapolis; and Toronto, Ontario.
According to the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center, more than 22 million people are at risk for severe weather on Tuesday. Roughly 17 million live in a zone covered by a marginal risk, the lowest threat category out of five levels, according to the SPC. This includes Chicago, Detroit and Milwaukee. Just over 5 million live in an area covered by a slight risk, which is one category higher than marginal risk. Cities in this area include Grand Rapids, Lansing and Kalamazoo, Michigan.
AccuWeather meteorologists urge residents to ensure they have a method of receiving weather warnings before heading to bed on Monday and Tuesday. Residents should also be prepared to take shelter if necessary.
While parts of northern Minnesota are still in extreme drought, much of Wisconsin and Michigan have little to no drought conditions present, according to the United States Drought Monitor. Flooding will be a possibility in these areas, forecasters say. Traverse City received about 1.42 times its average amount of rainfall in August, while Detroit received over 1.5 times its average.
As the storm system travels eastward on Wednesday, it is forecast to bring heavy thunderstorms to cities in the Northeast which were recently impacted by Ida. The storm claimed the lives of at least 51 people across the region, with multiple families perishing from rising floodwaters in basements.
Since the ground is already saturated, the risk of flooding is even higher in big cities like Philadelphia and New York City. Those with travel plans can anticipate delays, reduced visibility and an increased risk of hydroplaning on roads, including interstates 75 and 90. Motorists should never drive through ponded water or flooded roads.
Storm-weary residents need to remain on alert for further flooding issues, especially from Washington, D.C., to Boston on Wednesday.
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