As Tropical Rainstorm Ida continued to move over the interior eastern United States (upper left) on Wednesday, Sept. 1, 2021, an area of disturbed weather was situated over the southwestern Caribbean Sea (lower left). Tropical Depression Kate (right of center) and Tropical Storm Larry near the coast of Africa (right) can also be seen on the satellite image. (CIRA at Colorado State/GOES-East)
As Ida was still unloading torrential rainfall in the northeastern United States on Wednesday, the Atlantic showed no signs of slowing down. Tropical Storm Larry, the twelfth named storm of the 2021 hurricane season, developed south of the Cabo Verde Islands in the eastern Atlantic early Wednesday morning.
The storm was packing maximum sustained winds of 45 mph as it churned 175 miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday. It was racing westward at 20 mph.
"There are all kinds of skeletons in the closet," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said while analyzing the copious potential for tropical storm development over the Atlantic basin in the coming days.
Kate became the 11th named system of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season on Aug. 30, and it weakened to a depression Tuesday morning. Kate may continue to vary in intensity for the balance of the week and is expected to spend its entire life over the open waters of the Atlantic, hundreds of miles to the east of Bermuda.
AccuWeather forecasters saw signs of Larry developing early on Monday.
Then, as Ida etched its legacy of torrential rain and flooding across a wide swath of the U.S., a new robust tropical wave emerged from the coast of Africa early on Tuesday.
By 5 p.m. EDT Tuesday, this tropical wave organized into Tropical Depression 12. Just 12 hours later, the tropical depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Larry.
Larry is forecast to become a hurricane and is expected to be the next major hurricane of 2021 following in the footsteps of Grace and Ida.
Prevailing winds across the basin into this weekend are likely to guide this system toward the west-northwest over the central Atlantic into this weekend.
Larry may eventually turn north of the Leeward Islands and track east of Bermuda. But, AccuWeather forecasters say that there are still several possibilities for the future track of the storm. One of those possibilities is a path that would reach Atlantic Canada. A track closer to the U.S. cannot be ruled out either. No matter the exact track it ends up taking, AccuWeather meteorologists say the storm could end up being one of the longest-lived tropical systems in the Atlantic so far in 2021.
Thousands of miles farther to the west, over the southwestern part of the Caribbean, a batch of thunderstorms has been bubbling up in recent days.
"There is still a lot of active weather in the southwestern Caribbean," Kottlowski said. There is some potential that a system could spin up as the area of showers and storms shifts northward and enters the southwestern Gulf of Mexico into next week, he explained.
Farther to the northeast, an area offshore of the Carolinas, Georgia and northeastern Florida might need to be watched for possible tropical formation this weekend, according to AccuWeather forecasters.
A front is forecast to stall in this region, and at the same time, a small split in the jet stream is expected to develop. It is in this zone or somewhere over the Atlantic between Bermuda, the Bahamas and the East Coast of the U.S. where a tropical depression or storm may take shape. However, wind shear may inhibit a system's ability to become organized, Kottlowski explained.
With 12 named tropical storms -- and two major hurricanes -- already in the books for the Atlantic in 2021, the pace continues to run well ahead of average. Typically, the 12th named system and second major hurricane does not occur for another five weeks, or in early October.
Following Category 3 Hurricane Grace from mid-August, Ida became the second major hurricane of the 2021 season this weekend and also became the first Category 4 hurricane of 2021.
At present, the 2021 hurricane season is within a couple of storms of the record pace set during 2020, when 30 named systems formed and required the use of the Greek Alphabet.
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The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) will no longer use the Greek Alphabet to name systems beyond the original list of names for the year. Instead, should this year's list of names be exhausted, there is a supplemental list that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) will use in alphabetical order. These names are: Adria, Braylen, Caridad, Deshawn, Emery, Foster, Gemma, Heath, Isla, Jacobus, Kenzie, Lucio, Makayla, Nolan, Orlanda, Pax, Ronin, Sophie, Tayshaun, Viviana and Will.
The last name on the regular list for 2021 is Wanda for 2021 as the letters U, X, Y and Z are not used.
AccuWeather is projecting 16-20 named tropical systems with seven to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes. At least one more named system is forecast to have a direct impact on the U.S. with the potential for even more. Thus far, six named tropical systems have made landfall in the U.S. Four of those struck along the Gulf Coast, an area still reeling from last season's destruction.
There are plenty more named tropical systems to go for the 2021 Atlantic season as the peak of hurricane season continues through much of October. The season does not officially end until Nov. 30.
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