In this AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite image, a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms, referred to as a tropical wave, is seen off the western coast of Africa on Tuesday, Sept. 14, 2021. (AccuWeather)
Less than a week after long-lived Larry tracked across almost the entirety of the Atlantic Ocean and finally dissipated near Greenland, AccuWeather forecasters say the next potential long-track tropical system is brewing near the African coast. Forecasters are tracking a series of tropical waves across the Atlantic basin, but one in particular has captured their attention.
A tropical wave, essentially a disorganized area of low pressure, pushed off the western coast of Africa and over the Atlantic early Tuesday. This wave was located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the southern Cabo Verde Islands on Tuesday and was already showing signs of potential development.
A large area of showers and thunderstorms can be found around this tropical wave, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Randy Adkins.
This tropical wave, designated as Invest 95L by the National Hurricane Center, will move into an area that forecasters say is favorable for development. Tropical systems typically need a combination of two atmospheric factors to develop and ultimately strengthen: low vertical wind shear and warm ocean waters.
Vertical wind shear is the change in direction and speed of winds at increasing heights, or levels, of the atmosphere. When strong wind shear is present over a portion of an ocean, it inhibits development. Strong wind shear can work to tear apart the cloud tops of a tropical system, resulting in the storm being unable to come together and intensify.
Warm ocean waters are also pivotal for the development of tropical systems. Typically, the "sweet spot" for tropical development is sea-surface temperatures of 78 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. Temperatures in the portion of the Atlantic where the tropical wave is headed are well into the 80s.
Given the relatively low wind shear and rather high sea-surface temperatures along the path of the next potential tropical entity of the season, AccuWeather forecasters expect new tropical development within the week.
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"There is a high chance this system will become a tropical depression, then [a] tropical storm within the next couple of days as it passes south of the Cabo Verde Islands," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist and Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.
Forecasters say the best window for development will be before the end of the week as the tropical wave tracks westward across the open waters of the Atlantic.
"Conditions remain somewhat favorable through Thursday, and it is possible that this feature could become a tropical storm by that time," Adkins said.
Uncertainty still remains for the ultimate track of this potential tropical storm. On the whole, AccuWeather forecasters say two different scenarios for the track are in play.
In the first scenario, the potential storm may be unable to strengthen beyond a less potent tropical storm. In this case, the lack of more robust development will allow this system to take on a more westerly track. This westerly track could potentially bring a tropical storm close to the Leeward Islands of the Caribbean early next week.
If the potential system is able to take full advantage of the favorable conditions across the Atlantic, it may become this season's next hurricane. If the potential storm manages to reach hurricane strength, it is less likely to take a meandering, westward track and more likely to ultimately take a turn toward the north.
Forecasters say this tropical wave off Africa's coast may have competition to become the next named storm in the Atlantic basin. A disturbance of the southeastern coast of the United States also has a high chance for development by the end of the week.
The next two names on the list for the Atlantic basin are Odette and Peter.
The most recent name to be ticked off the list was Nicholas. Tropical Storm Nicholas formed Sunday morning in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and strengthened Monday. Nicholas ultimately struck Texas Monday night as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
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