Published: August 19, 2021
Warmer than average temperatures are likely to grow more expansive in parts of the West and Midwest deeper into fall, according to an updated outlook from The Weather Company, an IBM Business.
Fall temperatures as a whole are expected to be above average from the Central and Northern Rockies into the upper Midwest.
Most other areas of the country should be near or slightly above average, while parts of the South might be near or slightly below average.
This forecast masks some important details for how temperatures will evolve through fall because it combines all three months of September through November.
So here is a monthly breakdown of those details.
September-November Breakdown
Fall should start out with a temperature pattern that has been common this summer. Namely, warmer than average conditions in parts of the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains.
Many cities in this area were having their hottest or second hottest summer on record through mid-August, including Spokane, Washington, Boise, Idaho, and Billings, Montana, according to data from the Southeast Regional Climate Center.
Parts of the southern U.S. could see temperatures that are near or slightly below average, much like what has been observed this summer.
October's temperature pattern bears a strong resemblance to what is expected in September.
There is a slight expansion of warmer than average temperatures in the western and northern U.S., and that's a signal for what could be to come in November.
The November outlook is bad news for all those in the Rockies, Plains and Midwest who love wintry weather in late fall. Above average temperatures are forecast to grow more expansive across those regions in November.
One reason for this is another potential La Niña event developing in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
"We expect another La Niña event to evolve over the next few months, and the tropical circulation associated with this evolution typically leads to warm autumns, especially across the western U.S.," said Dr. Todd Crawford, Director of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2.
La Niña is the periodic cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean waters, which depending on its strength, can influence weather patterns across the globe, including in the U.S.
The influence of La Niña is typically strongest in the cooler months of the year, but it sometimes can be overridden by other atmospheric factors at play that cannot be foreseen far in advance.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
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