By AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Aug. 24, 2021 10:23 AM EDT
Just days after Hurricane Grace ravaged parts of Mexico with deadly force, AccuWeather forecasters were warning that a new brewing tropical threat can bring more dangerous impacts to the same areas and slow recovery efforts.
Hurricane Grace strengthened into the first major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, packing maximum sustained winds of 125 mph (200 km/h) during its second landfall in eastern Mexico this past weekend. It made its first landfall as a Category 1 hurricane along the eastern Yucatán Peninsula last Thursday. At least eight people died as a result of the storm and several others remained missing.
AccuWeather meteorologists were monitoring a weak and rather disorganized tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean that produced showers and breezy conditions on Tuesday. Forecasters say this tropical disturbance could develop into the next named system in the Atlantic by late this week or this weekend as it nears Central and North America.
Several factors will come into play to determine when, where and how much the system will strengthen.
To the north of this tropical wave, across the southwestern Atlantic, a plume of Saharan Dust made its way westward and over South Florida, creating milky white skies in Miami.
While this tropical wave is tracking to the south of the most dense area of African dust and through an area of tropical moisture, a factor that typically favors tropical development, a different factor could inhibit this tropical wave from becoming better organized into the middle of the week.
"As this disturbance moves steadily westward across the Caribbean it is expected to encounter strong wind shear through early Thursday, which will likely inhibit development," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Randy Adkins said.
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Even if it does not strengthen, the tropical wave can enhance showers and thunderstorms from late Wednesday into Thursday across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, two areas that were also pummeled by Grace's heavy rain last week.
"However, by late in the week, wind shear is expected to diminish across the western Caribbean Sea, which may open the door for development over the northwest Caribbean," added Adkins.
If this happens, the system may develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm prior to reaching Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula.
Should this system become a tropical storm (maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph, or 62-117 km/h) it would be given the name Ida, barring any other tropical development across the basin earlier in the week. However, AccuWeather meteorologists say there are two other tropical features being monitored in the Atlantic basin, and one of them could potentially become a tropical storm and be named first.
This potential tropical threat is expected to track across the Yucatán Peninsula this weekend, bringing with it bouts of heavy rain which can trigger flooding, even if it does not intensify into a tropical storm. If it does become better organized into a tropical storm, damaging winds will be a threat as well.
"If the system does not develop before reaching the Yucatán Peninsula, it will have another opportunity to do so across the Bay of Campeche this weekend," said Adkins.
The system is expected to track westward across the Bay of Campeche, situated in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, over the weekend and into eastern Mexico by early next week. Areas that recently took the brunt of Grace's fury when it roared in as a Category 3 hurricane will once again be at risk as the new threat approaches.
A road sign brought down by the winds of Hurricane Grace lays on the side of the highway in Tulum, Quintana Roo state, Mexico, Thursday, Aug. 19, 2021. The Category 1 storm made landfall at 4:45 a.m., just south of the ancient Mayan temples of Tulum, pelting the Caribbean coast with heavy rain and pushing a dangerous storm surge. (AP Photo/Marco Ugarte)
Regardless of development, this will have the potential to trigger new flooding and mudslides across the region due to the surge of tropical moisture and rainfall associated with it.
While this potential tropical system may unload heavy rain over areas hard-hit by Grace, it is not out of the question that it could track farther to the north and bring heavy rainfall or even some wind to South Texas.
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