Where June's Tornado Risk is the Highest and More Tornado Facts

Linda Lam

Published: June 4, 2021

Areas at greatest threat for tornadoes in June are shown in the darker red contours.

June is one of the most active months for tornadoes in the Lower 48, but the threat shifts slightly northward compared to earlier in the year.

Areas from central Oklahoma into southwestern Minnesota have the highest risk for tornadoes in June. The risk also increases from eastern North Dakota into Wisconsin, Michigan and as far east as western Pennsylvania. The tornado risk remains elevated from Texas into the Central Plains, as well as from parts of Illinois into Ohio.

The threat of tornadoes also increases some in much of the Florida Peninsula as the wet season kicks in. Tornadoes can happen just about anywhere in the contiguous U.S. in June given the widespread warmth and humidity.

F​ind The Perfect Father's Day Gift Here (SPONSORED)

Brief, weaker tornadoes often occur near the Gulf Coast during the summer, including in June. Scattered thunderstorms can sometimes create tornadoes across the South.

Tropical systems also bring the threat of tornadoes, although they are usually weak and short-lived.

Tornadoes can occur any time of the year, but April, May and June are typically the peak months. May is usually the most active.

The April-June period averages the most number of tornadoes during the year.

April through June is the time of year climatologically when ingredients for severe weather, including tornadoes, are most likely to come together.

One of these ingredients is a strong jet stream, which is typically located across the Central and Northern Plains into the Midwest in June. That increases the risk of severe thunderstorms there. Other factors include surface dew points in the 60s or 70s and increasingly hot temperatures.

(MORE: Changes in the Weather That Typically Happen in June)

2021's Slow Start

Tornado reports so far this year are below average. The average number of tornado reports through June 3, based on data from 2005-2015, is 800, but this year the count so far is 587. It should be noted that the tornado reports for 2020 and 2021 are still preliminary and will likely change.

March saw more than double the average number of reports compared to average (191 compared to the average of 83), but then April was well below average with just 73 reports. May 2021 was about average with reported 288 tornadoes.

(MORE: April 2021 Tornadoes May Have Been Lowest In Any April This Century)

The most active day for tornadoes so far was March 17 when 56 were reported, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

U.S. tornado reports through June 3, 2021.

Tornado reports have been greatest in portions of the South. Texas, Alabama and Mississippi have observed the most tornadoes so far this year. Tornado activity tends to be higher in the South during the beginning of the year and then migrates northward with the jet stream.

Severe weather has been a bit limited this year due to the dominant upper-level pattern. This pattern has brought persistent surges of colder than average temperatures this spring for parts of the central and southern United States. Moisture was limited as a result, which is an important ingredient in severe thunderstorms.

Tornado reports by state in 2021 through June 3.

2020's Slow Finish

There was a notable decrease in Tornado reports in 2020 in both May and June after a busy April. Just over 270 tornadoes were reported in April 2020, which is well above the average of 194.

Then a weather pattern change resulted in an unfavorable setup for severe weather. Early in May, the jet stream bulged northward over the West and then dipped southward over the East. This kept most areas east of the Rockies cooler than average. That is not a favorable setup for tornadoes.

Starting in late May, expansive high pressure aloft set up from the Southwest through the Plains into Canada. This pushed the jet stream farther north than is typically observed in early summer. As a result, wind shear, which is needed to produced tornadoes, was lacking in the Plains and Midwest, where they are most common in June.

The 126 preliminary tornado reports last May may be one of the fewest for May in over 50 years when counts are finalized. May averages 281 reports.

June 2020 was similar to May. Fewer than 100 tornadoes were reported across the United States, which was less than half of what is typically expected. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center noted that the majority of the tornadoes in June 2020 occurred in counts of 10 or fewer per day.

Reports of tornadoes for April, May and June for the last 3 years. Counts are preliminary for 2020 and 2021 and the June average is shown instead of 2021.

The tornadoes that did form in June 2020 were also generally fairly weak. All but one of the tornadoes were rated EF0 or EF1. Tornadoes rated EF0 or EF1 are considered weak, EF2 or EF3 tornadoes are strong and EF4 and EF5 tornadoes are violent.

Many of the areas that would usually expect tornadoes in June did not report any in 2020. This includes Oklahoma and much of Kansas and Iowa.

It is too early to know if the below average tornado trend will continue this June, but it is always important to be prepared. An active severe weather pattern isn't needed to produce deadly, damaging storms.

Location of tornado reports are shown by the red dots for June 2020.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.