By AccuWeather meteorologist
Updated Jun. 24, 2021 10:38 AM AKDT
In the wake of damaging storms that tore through parts of the Midwest Sunday night, including a tornado in a suburb of Chicago, the region may find itself bracing for not only more rounds of severe weather, but also the risk of flooding through this weekend after its brief reprieve.
The heat and humidity that helped to fuel storms Sunday night have been swept away to the east. This allowed most areas to turn drier at midweek as more comfortable conditions took hold. Below-normal temperatures have been a rare occurrence during June, as overall monthly departures are well above average.
"Luckily, residents who have to deal with the aftermath of Sunday night's storms will not have to do so in scorching heat or brutal cold," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Mary Gilbert. "Temperatures will hover within a few degrees of average across much of northern Illinois through at least the middle of the week," she continued.
As one might expect during the summer, the lack of heat and humidity will not last long. Through Friday, the moisture content of the air will increase. Temperatures are also expected to be a bit higher than Tuesday and Wednesday as warmer air moves in from the west.
The higher heat and humidity will expand northward out ahead of the next cold front.
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"The timing of a surge of moisture across the Midwest will coincide with the arrival of a cold front and if the atmospheric ingredients come together in just the right way, it could spell another round of feisty storms," explained Gilbert.
In addition, jet stream energy in the region may help to add extra strength to the storms. The most likely area for thunderstorms during through Thursday evening will be in southern Iowa and northern Missouri.
An area of low pressure could aid in additional thunderstorm development Thursday night. With storms repeating over the same areas, flooding could become a concern. However, the storms will also expand eastward into western Illinois and southern Wisconsin.
Des Moines and Cedar Rapids, Iowa; Kansas City, Missouri; Madison, Wisconsin; and Rockford, Illinois, are just some of the cities at risk for strong to severe thunderstorms into Thursday night.
Both large hail and damaging winds will be a threat through Thursday night, with the main severe hazard transitioning to strong winds overnight.
Unfortunately, by Friday, parts of northern and central Illinois that were hit particularly hard Sunday night will be at risk for storms.
Portions of Michigan and Indiana could also face strong thunderstorms on Friday. Residents of Chicago, Indianapolis and Grand Rapids, Michigan, will need to keep an eye to the sky Friday.
The front is expected to begin to fall apart by the weekend, which may significantly lessen the severe weather threat. However, forecasters say what is left of the front will stall over the region. When fronts tend to stall, there is the potential for downpours to repeat over an extended period. When downpours linger, the risk of flooding tends to increase.
Urban and small stream flooding is a concern through Sunday in the zone from central Oklahoma to Michigan and central Ontario. In the area from central Missouri to the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, a general 4-8 inches of rain is forecast with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 12 inches. Rainfall of this magnitude, even in areas that were previously abnormally dry in recent weeks, can lead to more general flooding problems, including significant rises on some of the rivers.
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